Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Judging from my Christmas cards and emails many of the 55-85s are the sort of grandparents who are frequently involved in their children and grandchildren's lives. There may be more testing before visiting elderly relatives who are seen rarely than those seen once a week or more.

All my relatives tested before seeing each other
Still didn't stop them catching it though. Hopefully it's mild and just a case of getting through the bad days.
It seems to be hitting people hard though and not that mild, but manageable.

Poor otters 🦦 though , they probably can't get tests either

The Danish government did illegally cull all the fake otters (Mink) So maybe it's good if they can't get tests, they might stay alive!

I can't find the person whose relative in their 70s tested positive on LFTs, but here is a link to the PRINCIPLE study, in case it is helpful to anyone

www.principletrial.org/

The Principle study offers the possibility of a rial of medication to people who test positive but don't fall into the category of getting new treatments because of pre-existing vulnerabiliy.

So todays stats.

No uptick on LFT's from the 31st so only 38k total, so not "later in the day use" (well maybe it was, but not such that it changed the specimen date on the submissions) So yes lower numbers in recent days.

Obvious concern would be if this is related to test availability rather than a genuine fall, although PCR's are more reflective - of course this could also be a test availability issue - particularly if a high proportion of all PCR's were actually from a non-registered LFD which has been suggested!

Admissions fell on NYE, not sure there's too much to read into on that, unique day of course. Total in hospital also grew less on the two days since (only adding 800 over 2 days, whereas had been ~1000 a day growth for the previous 5 days)

Patients in hospital growing at a lot slower rate in London, with admissions dropping but not by as much indicating there probably was a bit of a discharge delay over christmas this year too - it was seen last year.

Oh and of course the best news, mechanical ventilation beds still below where we were before we'd heard of omicron.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Oh and of course the best news, mechanical ventilation beds still below where we were before we'd heard of omicron.

That’s great

It has been a pretty long time now

Did anyone hear news re no new restrictions?

Mentioned elsewhere sounds promising

Unless of course you'd like more of a handle on the current situation.

Good news if the numbers are clearly falling (haven't seen them yet)

@sirfredfredgeorge

Doesn't seem to work for teachers fred

What figures do you get for omicron prevalence in teachers? We hardly have any omicron prevalence during term time?

Didn't know we were talking about Omicron. We didn't seem to be when care workers were being discussed. the most up to date occupational stats of course won't reflect omicron but since it's more transmissible I can't see things changing especially with more people WFH...

We didn't seem to be when care workers were being discussed

I was also wondering where the care worker stats had come from, but assumed it was talking about now as the context did seem like it was omicron now - I was mostly referencing of course the NHS numbers which we do have for London and certainly have lower staff absence than community rate, particularly working age community rates - although there could of course be confounding things like NHS working too hard / avoiding pubs etc.

I was referencing the ONS statistics.

Some initial indications of a slight increase in deaths within 28 days by date of death in England.

To give this a bit more context the 7 day average was close to 140 at the start of November and has been in the low to mid 90s since 11th December. As at 28th touching on the 100 mark. More broadly this time last year it had just passed 600.

London was sat at around 13 in mid December, as at 28th just under 18. With the lag between positive case and death that likely still predates the Omicron spike proper. Based on dashboard cases spec date London has a 7 day average was just under 6000 on 4th December with cases starting to jump from 6th December, over 8,000 but less than 10,000 per day between 6th an 11th then the jump to 20,000 plus from 13th December onwards.

Admissions down the last couple of days in England, and particularly so in London. Looking back to the stats from this time last year they were rising fast and show no particular drop around New year, so I don't think it's necessarily a seasonal thing. One to watch, but could be really positive if it continues?

With the lag between positive case and death that likely still predates the Omicron spike proper

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928729/S0803_CO-CIN_-_Time_from_symptom_onset_until_death.pdf

"Median (interquartile range) of time from symptom onset to death is currently shorter in the second wave (7
days [IQR 11 days]) compared to the first wave (13 days [IQR 14 days])"

So if omicron is following Alpha wave then it could just be, although it still depends on the delay in recording the deaths - particularly if hospital deaths are longer as they're the ones we get recorded earliest of course, and the peak in London older (likely more vulnerable) was probably only in the last week, rather than back in the peak cases before Christmas.

I just had a quick look back at last winter myself and Dec 27 2021 admissions were very similar to Dec 15 2020,

But to find similar mechanical ventilation and patients in hospital numbers to our current ones you'd have to go back to the end of October in that wave.

Patients admitted to hospital
27.12.2021 1,915
15.12.2020 1,958

Patients in hospital
29.12.2021 11,919
30.10.2020 11,788

Patients in Mechanical ventilation beds 29.12.2021 868
26.10.2020 853

And that's vaccine-wang!

@the80sweregreat

My relative can't get a pcr , flow test was + today , ( age 71) and has underlying heart problems and had a booster in October , double jabbed and flu jab etc. I'm worried about them to be honest.

Try signing them up for the ZOE COVID study. I’m on it, and they seem to send out PCR tests even if you’re slightly unwell. I think that they have their own lab, so aren’t affected by general test availability.

Also, as a PP said, call 111 for advice. A friend with covid and asthma got put on a virtual covid ward with an oximeter sent out when she tested positive.

Interesting. From my notes the figures taken from the dashboard on the date shown:

Patients admitted to hospital:
15.12.20 1637
15.12.21 774
29.12.20 2322
29.12.21 1213

Patients in hospital:
31.12.20 23,813
31.12.20 11,918

Patients in mechanical ventillation beds:
30.12.20 1847
30.12.21 868

Sorry, the 11,918 figure for patients in hospital is 31.12.21.

Cases by specimen date, UK, 29/12/21
209,743!

twitter.com/pouriaaa/status/1477705964346302466?s=21

Re lack of access to tests - if people have covid but don't know it or can't prove it due to lack of tests but then they end up in hospital or die, how is that going to be recorded?

containsnuts There's no evidence of a shortage of pillar 1 tests, so as soon as they end up in hospital it will be recorded, the hospital system is not the same, they don't ship the swabs off to a lab in the post.

For a death without hospital care, or being seen by a doctor who's mention it, then that would be a matter for the coroner of course, and would likely be one that would be very delayed, however I don't believe that scenario is all that likely without the individual getting into health system and therefore access to a test.

Even the central lab capability is not overwhelmed at the minute, it's all peripheral shortage (distribution and swabbers in centres), which again points to the hospital tests not being in a short supply. I don't think it's a concern.

Thanks. I was thinking about a potential lack of ability to test quickly at the time Covid it shows up in the tests. By the time some people need hospital that window will have passed. I've heard they diagnose Covid even without a positive PCR (by xray etc) but how does this show up in stats?

@MarshaBradyo

Did anyone hear news re no new restrictions?

Mentioned elsewhere sounds promising

That’s not promising, it’s delusional.

Self imposed lockdowns will screw businesses even more.