Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Christina Pagel's situation assessment, inc re child cases/hospitalisations:

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1483484182282223619?s=21

@Ohsofedupwiththis

Are we beginning to see the school effect?

Cases are creeping up again the last couple of days and I think it could be a genuine increase.

This is based on the gender files released this afternoon - so providing an age breakdown by day incl all of the last 5 days.

Sunday 9th Jan approx 16,000 cases in 0-14 age group, rough split in ascending age order 3k, 6.7k, 6.3k.

Sunday 16th January, not 100% reported of course. 26000 in the 0-14s. Rough split 4K, 12.5k, 9.9k

Overall total for Sunday just gone currently around 1700 lower than previous Sunday. So on a 70,000+ case day likely to end up at an overall figure similar to the previous Sunday. Indicating falls in a number of other age bands.

First day only of reporting for yesterday. Close to 20k cases in the 0-14s. A week on Monday 10th has totalled 24k across those three age groups. So yesterday highly likely to pass that.

Hosp admissions in kids, esp under 5's, have been v v high

Very very high? Less than 2500 in total since we learnt about Omicron, and that includes all "with covid" at a time when 20-40% of the population have had covid according to the ONS?

20,000 under 1's with an RSV diagnosis in a normal year admissions, if less than 2500 covid is "v v high", why are we ignoring RSV?

Testing numbers

@JanglyBeads that's lab based testing numbers; not necessarily complete for the last few days. So does need to be seen in that context. Its not total testing numbers.

Yes. This was my (innumerate) concern. But apparently the,proportions are following a downward curve in line with the population studies and also analysis of sewer water for the virus. So cautiously optimistic.

Now the festive period has calmed down a repeat of the lag time graphs shown mid(ish)- December.

These are seven day averages for the percentage of cases reported each day by spec date lag. So percentage that relate to the previous 1 or 2 days spec dates through to five days, on a cumulative basis.

This shows the full timeline from early September 2020 through to today

whilst this just focuses on the past six or so weeks, with the dips in speed rather more clear

Jangly DS has a PCR yesterday. Test centre was reasonably busy. I had a couple of cars in front of me when driving in. Test results back in 17 hours - I think that's a record.

All anecdata of course, but much quicker than November when last PCR.

In fact, on the under 5's
Up to December 1st
5839 admissions on 10,324,108 cases
Since December 1st
2288 admissions on 5,075,192 cases

So the ratio of under 5 admissions to total cases has gone down with omicron, not up, now of course that's total cases, not simply under 5's cases, and data at all on under 5 cases is pretty unreliable because people are much less likely to test them, however we do have the numbers.
5839 admissions on 195916 cases
2288 admissions on 110560 cases
So even here, admission rates with Omicron dropped.

I simply don't see any data that supports a "omicron is more dangerous for 0-4's", it's less likely to lead to an admission than previous variants.

I simply don't see any data that supports a "omicron is more dangerous for 0-4's", it's less likely to lead to an admission than previous variants.
More children in hospital means its more dangerous for that age group. The case numbers don't matter. The increase may be caused because cases have been left to get out of control. You are quite right that case numbers in this age group are anyway unreliable. Normalising or worse trivialising the increase in children in hospital is wrong. I accept that many admissions are short and that many children don't stay in long, but we have no idea of any long term health consequences.

But there are less children in hospital with omicron than with other variants? So why was there not the huge alarm about this age group before? It seems strange that no-one raised the issue of the under 4's getting covid until case rates in under 4's started going down? Wasn't the time to raise the issue when they were higher?

as the hour is late and just in case of a late night / early morning posting frenzy the next thread instalment ready to go.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4457355-Data-Stats-and-Daily-Numbers-started-18th-January-2022

We can worry about hospitalisations of under 5s or not worry about them, but there doesn't seem to be much at all we can do to prevent them. There's no vaccines for that age group. It's obviously not feasible to expect them to socially distance or wear masks (forever???). So we may as well accept covid as another childhood illness that they are likely to catch at some point. It's not the worse one for them to catch by some way. I've known babies and toddlers hospitalised with chest infections, measles (while too young for the vaccine), pneumonia and meningitis. All survived thankfully, but illnesses are a fact of life and something we do just live with when there's no other option.

@Firefliess

We can worry about hospitalisations of under 5s or not worry about them, but there doesn't seem to be much at all we can do to prevent them. There's no vaccines for that age group. It's obviously not feasible to expect them to socially distance or wear masks (forever???). So we may as well accept covid as another childhood illness that they are likely to catch at some point. It's not the worse one for them to catch by some way. I've known babies and toddlers hospitalised with chest infections, measles (while too young for the vaccine), pneumonia and meningitis. All survived thankfully, but illnesses are a fact of life and something we do just live with when there's no other option.

Agree with this balanced perspective.

But mitigations which reduce case rates in older age groups would also reduce rates in young children.

There is something we could do.

@JanglyBeads

But mitigations which reduce case rates in older age groups would also reduce rates in young children.

There is something we could do.

We could, but it would simply mean that some children catch covid next month instead of this month, which isn't much help to anyone. It won't stop them catching it, just slow the rate of spread down so delay it a bit.