Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Data question regarding masks in schools:

On another thread, posters say that Scotland secondary schools have been wearing masks since September. Has anyone done a comparison of rates of Delta in 10-15/15-19 year olds in England vs Scotland in September to December?

I feel comparing rates directly might not work because Scotland and England are massive, diverse and different places. But is there a similar Scottish and English town where rates can be compared?

Just wondering if there was some data that showed if masks work in school.

I guess any data that said they lowered Delta transmission wouldn’t necessarily translate to more transmissible Omicron,Mobutu they are worth a try. But if they had no effect against Delta, they are pointless against Omicron.

Although I don’t know where to even find the data about case rates by age in Scotland!

Re incidental deaths with (not of) Covid. We'd expect some of these particularly if covid rates get high in the very oldest age groups (which they're not really, as yet) But that will only affect the "deaths within 28 days of a positive test" figure, the one on the dashboard. The cause of death is also recorded and published - it's not the one that gets so much attention because there's a few weeks delay on it. But since about June 2020 though the two figures have been pretty close (with deaths within 28 days of a positive test but not due to covid roughly balancing out the deaths due to covid but more that 28 days after a test).

@Hmmph

Data question regarding masks in schools:

On another thread, posters say that Scotland secondary schools have been wearing masks since September. Has anyone done a comparison of rates of Delta in 10-15/15-19 year olds in England vs Scotland in September to December?

I feel comparing rates directly might not work because Scotland and England are massive, diverse and different places. But is there a similar Scottish and English town where rates can be compared?

Just wondering if there was some data that showed if masks work in school.

I guess any data that said they lowered Delta transmission wouldn’t necessarily translate to more transmissible Omicron,Mobutu they are worth a try. But if they had no effect against Delta, they are pointless against Omicron.

I would look at a city like Glasgow or perhaps Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire etc.

Has there been any indication that the government plan to comment about the current restrictions / huge case numbers or anything else before everyone goes back to work / school? Has Plan B been confirmed as extending into January?

Measures introduced in England mid-December are up for review on Wednesday 4th

@kirinm

Has there been any indication that the government plan to comment about the current restrictions / huge case numbers or anything else before everyone goes back to work / school? Has Plan B been confirmed as extending into January?

I think review date is Jan 4th

Age rates in England including the last four days as reported so far (from the dashboard gender files).

To set the context this is daily case numbers by age band (as known so not an exact 100% match with the total England cases). The last few days are still to be fully reported through but worth noting that December 30th so far is almost the same figure as the fully reported December 23rd.

This is then the rolling seven day rate including two final columns comparing 30th with 23rd in terms of both percentage change and absolute rate change. With most growth in older groups.

and finally a rate per 100,000 based just on each daily total.

Thanks for those charts @boys3. Interesting that the growth in the older age groups is worse in the 70-85 age group (not the very oldest) - reflecting those age groups being more sociable maybe? Or more success in keeping covid out of care homes this time round?

@Firefliess that seems a reasonable explanation. If I get a chance looking at perhaps London (younger pop, lower vaccination rates) and the South West region (older population and higher, possibly highest by region, vacc rates) might be interesting to see if there are any significant differences.

Signing in belatedly!

Last time I looked at occupational rates, car home workers were lower than the default 'all workers' metric. So tat does suggest care homes are doing well at keeping covid from coming in , I hope.

People still can't get tests atm though.

I'm in the 70-85 age group and think yes we go out and socialise more than those over 85 .And maybe the protection afforded by boosters is wearing off for those of us who were quick off the mark to get boosted .

My relative can't get a pcr , flow test was + today , ( age 71) and has underlying heart problems and had a booster in October , double jabbed and flu jab etc.
I'm worried about them to be honest.

Last time I looked at occupational rates, car home workers were lower than the default 'all workers' metric. So tat does suggest care homes are doing well at keeping covid from coming in , I hope

Or it's because infection immunity is stronger than vaccine immunity and much higher infection immunity in the higher risk professions.

The NHS absences in London were lower than the community rates.

My relative can't get a pcr , flow test was + today , ( age 71) and has underlying heart problems and had a booster in October , double jabbed and flu jab etc

This is why we need to change the PCR testing criteria, I would get them to Contact GP / NHS 111, the LFD should be enough to discuss if any post exposure drugs are warranted / available.

70-85 have grandchildren of 15-30 where rates are highest. 85+ more likely to have grandchildren over 30.

They hope to get a pcr in the post. doesn't work ( retired) and can isolate easily enough
It's otters who can't do this that will have problems of course

Doesn't seem to work for teachers fred.

@the80sweregreat oh no, we have to worry about the otters now?

[quote JanglyBeads]@the80sweregreat oh no, we have to worry about the otters now? [/quote]
😂
It's my phone :)
Poor otters 🦦 though , they probably can't get tests either !!

Doesn't seem to work for teachers fred

What figures do you get for omicron prevalence in teachers? We hardly have any omicron prevalence during term time?