Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

We’ll see.

I’m sure some won’t be happy. I’ll be relieved but I’ve only seen it on here referencing BBC news earlier. Need confirmation.

In any case the window for action may have passed wrt Warwick model and earlier article.

Self imposed lockdowns will screw businesses even more.

Agree

There was some evidence of inpatient tests being sent to other private labs, it was during the reporting on the Immensa fiasco. Sorry can't remember any more atm. Don't think it was many though

@Regulus

Self imposed lockdowns will screw businesses even more.

Agree

Not sure everything I heard re NYE was it was a ‘lifeline’ to be open.

@MarshaBradyo surely you can see that there's in many cases a wide gulf between what government says one day and what happens a few weeks, or even days, later, borne of absolute emergency plus this government's refusal to "listen to the science"?

See closure of schools after one day's opening, this time last year.

And I’d say a fair amount of pressure on MPs is coming from sectors to remain open not closed.

I know it’s wanted more on here but I don’t think it fits.

Anecdata here from a family member who's a consultant is that many fewer patients are now mechanically ventilated. In the earlier waves they were... and ended up brain damaged and handicapped with maybe a 5% success rate. So now if they have an underlying condition, this is explained to them and they're given palliative care. Many are in their 40 /50's and it's been very difficult for the Icu nurses to come to terms with apparently.

Secondly medical care is so much better for Covid + patients. They're immediately given steroids & antivirals upon entrance. Consequently prognosis is very much improved nowadays.

Hmm, the thought of people in their 40s/ 50s being given limited treatment is a bit scary.

But presumably very few are dying, as the death figures aren't escalating, if anything the opposite?

@Paquerette What makes you think Zoe have their own lab (meant in a non-aggressive way?!) I have been 'invited' for many a test by them and it's all part of the normal PCR testing system as far as I can see - either by post or going to your local testing centre. Unless it's changed?
Would still recommend doing Zoe of course.

I think it’s a very odd view that self imposed locks damages business more! If they think they can make more money shut then all businesses can shut, they don’t need a government mandate to do so! I assume that all businesses open currently think that is therefore better for them!

There is no furlough scheme now so a it’s difficult to see any benefits for business to be told them have to shut rather than having a limited amount if trade.

I think the assumption is that if the government locks them down then they will have to provide financial support. Trouble is we as tax payers can’t pay for covid forever and it’s not going anywhere.

My sector I know well has a very high number of SME. Not closed by lockdowns but a drop in demand and furlough used in some cases.

Furlough covers one element of the cost - you still have big overheads, lease etc

I know grants were made and bounce back loans but that us further debt.

Right now SME that were in lock down would be feeling desperate not to go back to furlough with high overheads and no trade.

Yes they might say we don’t want ‘campaign of fear’ as they called it, but mostly they are desperate to stay open and operate. The next one could be closure after struggling for two years.

[quote Quarantino]@Paquerette What makes you think Zoe have their own lab (meant in a non-aggressive way?!) I have been 'invited' for many a test by them and it's all part of the normal PCR testing system as far as I can see - either by post or going to your local testing centre. Unless it's changed?
Would still recommend doing Zoe of course.[/quote]
I don't think KCL (who run Zoë) have their own 'wet' lab (ie to do PCRs) - they use normal public testing facilities afaik, and then analyse the results in-house (dry lab! Computer!)

There is capacity for testing in hospitals though (dc working for NHS covid testing currently - outsourced).

Zoe don't have their own lab but there is a number of tests set aside for them I think.

Or at least their users have priority?

There was some evidence of inpatient tests being sent to other private labs, it was during the reporting on the Immensa fiasco

I imagine small community hospitals wouldn't have their own lab, and might use the general labs rather than the nearest larger hospital one so I guess some yes. But still applies that it's not lab capacity, it's swabbers and distribution that is most limited at the minute.

This is in relation to pp about no new restrictions

I wonder which data supports the one change made though

news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-data-does-not-support-more-restrictions-in-england-this-week-thanks-to-plan-b-cabinet-minister-says-12507657

Possibly the data that is predicting 25% absence in the workforce Marsha?

Not sure what you mean?

The article states data do not support restrictions at this stage..

@Dghgcotcitc

I think it’s a very odd view that self imposed locks damages business more! If they think they can make more money shut then all businesses can shut, they don’t need a government mandate to do so! I assume that all businesses open currently think that is therefore better for them!

There is no furlough scheme now so a it’s difficult to see any benefits for business to be told them have to shut rather than having a limited amount if trade.

Without furlough we will see a huge amount of small hospitality and retail businesses go under this year. Not only will trading be difficult as people opt to stay away from mixing too much (already noticeable in my town) but the impact from staff sickness will also affect operations.

@MarshaBradyo

Not sure what you mean?

The article states data do not support restrictions at this stage..

You were wondering what data supported the one change. I assumed you meant the change to masks in classrooms. I would imagine the change was due to data that is predicting absences of 25% across the workforce.

The rules about masks in classrooms have changed several times without quite so much fanfare tbh. The press have latched on to it to whip up some panic perhaps. And U4Thav launched a concerted SM divebomb...

@JanglyBeads

Or at least their users have priority?

They're at KCL - they'll have plenty of access to PCRs if they did need - it's fairly standard kit for uni labs!

@Piggywaspushed

The rules about masks in classrooms have changed several times without quite so much fanfare tbh. The press have latched on to it to whip up some panic perhaps. And U4Thav launched a concerted SM divebomb...

Not sure. I think public have changed perception over time too.

In what way?