Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@DrBlackbird

Thanks to IWannaWishYou and others for your thoughts. Even formally bringing back social distancing might have been something, but this govt just does seem to be letting omicron rip through the population. Feels like we’re living through one big lab experiment.

I think The Telegraph have it right.

The government are gambling with our lives and livelihoods, and the education of our children.

Again.

I feel furious about the lack of interest in education. If schools close, five cohorts of young people (those in Years 9-13 in 2019-20) will have faced school closures in at least one GCSE or A-level exam year. Those poor kids who were in Year 11 in 2019-20 and are now in Year 13 will be stung twice. How will they be able to keep schools going with cases so high before we even go back, surely loads of teachers will be isolating?

Good points @ColouringPencils .....

Exam yaears are under a huge amount of pressure as they still can’t be 100% sure exams will go ahead. And a lot of schools are going to be very disrupted over the next few weeks or more with pupils and teachers off with Covid.

[quote Smallkeys]@MarshaBradyo
Near the bottom

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59848634[/quote]
Thanks, felt like a reasonable view on whether it’s too late to impose restrictions and window has passed.

Also may be a factor

‘Some say it would also have bought you time to carry out more vaccinations, but with nine in 10 of the most vulnerable boosted and evidence protection wanes over time this may actually be the point in time when we have the most immunity across the population.’

London's population is younger and less vaccinated

I think this will lead to opposite conclusion, the more vaccinated, the higher the omicron wave (due to previous infection being better than vaccine). Although an older population - and "dry january" social mixing will slow spread compared to younger christmas parties.

Thanks, felt like a reasonable view on whether it’s too late to impose restrictions and window has passed

The Warwick model had no change in outcome on infections or hospitalisations with restrictions imposed on the 4th of Jan. And they forgot to model the harm of the restrictions as always.

Have to say I don't really understand how masks in schools will reduce distribution to education. Wouldn't there be less distribution if it spreads quickly though a year group all at once, rather than a few kids being off at a time over many months? I can see the case for trying to prevent all the old people catching it at the same time, as the hospital pressures might be too severe (so saveable people die) But letting it spread quickly rather than slowly in schools would surely be a more sensible strategy? There do seem to still be a lot of folks on Twitter arguing for mitigations (in schools and elsewhere) in other to reduce infections - but how would they actually prevent infections from ever happening, unless continued forever? Surely they just delay some infections until whenever you lift that restrictions?

Wouldn't there be less distribution if it spreads quickly though a year group all at once, rather than a few kids being off at a time over many months

Yes, it also reduces the chance of staff catching it if all the students catch it in as small as possible time - although like everywhere else the mitigations of masking against omicron are poor - so you'd need to have staff separate. So there may be an argument for remote teaching by any more vulnerable staff (remote to the classroom, only teacher remote)

But all of that, "accept infections in low risk groups to rapidly confer population immunity" has been argued against for years, so it would be difficult to change policy.

I can't believe it took me so long to get the reference 🎶

Restrictions whilst causing harm also prevent it, the cancellation of sports, skate parks etc drastically lowered the amount of people going into hospital after an accident, lower traffic results in lower accidents. Preventing people attending hospital in the short term might surely be necessary?

Regards teaching I deviate from the general consensus.
I would rather senior schools close than have exam years taught by a variety of supply teachers or have a large rolling absenteeism amongst the pupils. We are fully set up for every lesson to be live, all our pupils have laptops, and we know now who can't work effectively from home so they could come in. The schools open at all cost is detrimental, especially imo at senior level. Apologies I digress.

Restrictions whilst causing harm also prevent it, the cancellation of sports, skate parks etc drastically lowered the amount of people going into hospital after an accident, lower traffic results in lower accidents

But they postpone harm, remember almost all the same vulnerable people will be going into hospital in all the models, it's just when it's spread out more of them survive because of capacity. And the restrictions generate more vulnerable people in future time - remember throughout second half of 2021 excess deaths were up in very non-vulnerable covid groups and not correlated with covid infections - the anti-vaxxers love the stat as it could be vaccine damage of course - but it could also be the postponed harm caused by lockdown restrictions.

And focusing on "cancelled sport" as a benefit, when the majority of hospital demand is related to low fitness seems dubious to me, it's one of the big drivers of harm, although as I said no-one's modelling it, so it's difficult to judge.

Where to begin... "accept infections in low risk groups to rapidly confer population immunity" It's been shown that this doesnt work. The young transmit it to older age groups who end up in hospital.

Lockdown doesnt necessarily reduce fitness, unless you ban people from exercising in their homes - that is a choice people make. Maybe there could have been a bit more propaganda about how to exercise within your home and exercise routines for the less able but if the young and fit become less so that is on them.

I'm not seeing massive excess deaths in the second half of 2021 that are not covid related - care to elaborate on the evidence for that? app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

And no it doesnt follow that everyone will get covid and end up in hospital, it will just take longer to happen.

This is all about no longer caring if people die if we can protect the economy. There is an argument to be made for that but this is not it, it's exaggeration.

@ColouringPencils

I feel furious about the lack of interest in education. If schools close, five cohorts of young people (those in Years 9-13 in 2019-20) will have faced school closures in at least one GCSE or A-level exam year. Those poor kids who were in Year 11 in 2019-20 and are now in Year 13 will be stung twice. How will they be able to keep schools going with cases so high before we even go back, surely loads of teachers will be isolating?

Yes loads are. Our head, deputy, 3 teachers and 2 TAs have tested positive so far, so won't be there for the start of term 😬

And that China is struggling to contain cases in Xi'an.

I think its Delta they are struggling to contain? Not sure if they have had Omicrom in the community yet. China is the place to watch over the next few months! I can't see how they can keep up Zero Covid but not sure how they will admit that.

And no it doesnt follow that everyone will get covid and end up in hospital, it will just take longer to happen

This is what the Warwick and other models show, can you please cite your alternative evidence?

Lockdown doesnt necessarily reduce fitness, unless you ban people from exercising in their homes - that is a choice people make

Plenty of evidence that this is exactly what it did - you are perhaps under the illusion that it is "exercise" that most people develop their fitness from, it's not, most people don't exercise, they get their fitness from incidental activities or from team competitions.

We can say "people should just exercise in their home", just like we can say "people should lose weight so they're not vulnerable to covid", but it's insulting simplification that doesn't actually achieve anything.

accept infections in low risk groups to rapidly confer population immunity It's been shown that this doesnt work. The young transmit it to older age groups who end up in hospital

Again, some evidence? As we do have evidence of the reverse.

All of this is a gamble though - sometimes it pays off sometimes it doesnt.

Having now travelled and spent 15 hours (with small breaks) with a mask on I think that masks in classrooms for the next month is a good idea - even if you take it has a 5-10% reduction (and it could be more) that is still good enough for a measure which in the most part is a manageable one alongside normal life. We have found masks though that work for us (even if the environmental impact of these means that they are not a long long term solution).

We need to be very careful though with restrictions that are simply kicking the can down the road and as others have said just postponing this

I'm not seeing massive excess deaths in the second half of 2021 that are not covid related - care to elaborate on the evidence for that

For some dubious reason in powerbi the young adults are grouped with very young children, or the middle aged, the excess is in young adult and old adolescent males, there's no quick way to see that (lots of anti-vaxxers graph, because of course they think it's vaccine damage, but I'm not linking to such dubious resources) raw data is
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

sirfred I'm afraid I just don't understand your logic. No model has been reliable to date and they are not getting a lot better. Forecasting without data is more guesswork than modelling.

We have new drugs now that will keep some people out of hospital IF they become infected. Your chance of becoming infected in a month, if you can avoid omicron until then, will probably be considerably lower than it is now because your chance of meeting an infected person will have reduced.

You were complaining about your son's decline in fitness - it was his choice, knowing he needed to find other ways to maintain fitness. His fitness might be considerably lower if he caught covid. You may dislike being reminded he had alternatives, it was still his choice.

Pretend to believe the young do not spread covid to older age groups is denying reality. Every heat map on the government data base shows infection takes off in the young and then spreads upwards.

You need to be explicit about which age group you think have excess deaths as "young adult and old adolescent males" is too ill defined. Perhaps when you have defined it you can look at the type of variation that occurred from year to year pre covid. To help you out - it was about 70 in the 15-19 age group and 150 in the 20-24 age group. It's possible that the effect of covid on delaying health care is to cause excess mortality further down the line but this is not "postponed harm caused by covid restrictions" it's the failure to control infections meaning that routine health care stopped for longer. You can expect excess mortality now from widespread community infection closing down other health care again.

@alreadytaken. Hiding away for a month and coming back out once case rates are down could help delay the time you catch covid as an individual, but only if everyone else is game for carrying on as normal causing a huge but short spike leaving you free to come back out into a low-covid world! But if lots of other people do the same thing, or we take measures such as masks in schools to slow down the spread more generally, then the spike isn't so high, nor so quick So rates continue on fairly high (just like they've done with delta all autumn), everyone who's been hiding away for a month comes back out and spreads it around each other. And even if you did manage to dodge the highest bit of the wave, you'd still catch it eventually if your vaccines don't fully protect you. Plus the longer you wait, post booster, the less protection you'll have.

You were complaining about your son's decline in fitness - it was his choice, knowing he needed to find other ways to maintain fitness

I have no son? I think you must have me confused with another poster.
(I'll not engage any more, as this isn't data for thread, and I do want to keep the thread on data, sorry, that's not to say I'm not listening, this is just not the place)

I mentioned that I thought my 9 year old son (along with his friends) found he had a decline in fitness over the lockdown and each isolation he suffered due to not being outside @alreadytaken because lockdowns and isolations are not the best for younger children.

It is a tricky age to manage to find things whilst homeschooling and parents are working when a lot of their exercise revolves around having fun outside and running around with their peers.

A comment regarding deaths.

We have seen that there is a reasonable amount of incidental admissions which do no have Covid infection as the reason for hospitalisation.

So we will expect that to be the case for deaths too? And that they may be higher as we can expect more incidental deaths too?

@Ohsofedupwiththis

A comment regarding deaths.

We have seen that there is a reasonable amount of incidental admissions which do no have Covid infection as the reason for hospitalisation.

So we will expect that to be the case for deaths too? And that they may be higher as we can expect more incidental deaths too?

I remember Andrew Pollard talking about this being the case

I hope we recognise the peak if it is occurring

Worst outcome would be to implement restrictions and claim fall due to that.

Hopefully that Warwick model is front of discussion too

So we will expect that to be the case for deaths too? And that they may be higher as we can expect more incidental deaths too?

Not as much as admissions, coincidental admissions are much more likely in the healthier parts of the community, because rates are higher in the healthier, as they're out more, take proportionately less precautions and their contacts take less precautions. So coincidental deaths will not be as higher.

With harder infection control going into hospital and with non hospital end of life care due to the additional transmissibility, they could certainly increase, but given the woeful performance with that in the original wave I'm not sure we'd actually see an increase.