Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

[boys3]

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@amicissimma

1 in 20 is 5%.

It is indeed. 4 weeks at 5% per week.... sorry wasn't clear.

Well it isn't clear how long people test positive on the ONS data but I think it is longer than 1 week. So some of those people are testing positive for more than 1 week in all likelihood.

Also, people can get covid more than once, and especially people who have had other variants can get omicron.

And the boosters appear to wane after 10 weeks.

So there is still a pool of people who can get infected.

It's good that numbers seem to be going down though!

Most people still WFH and being January, everyone is holed up at home.

You and I may WFH, but I don't think "most" people do, but most people can't!

Also, I'd imagine most people aren't behaving as hermits despite it being January. I'm not.

More on BA.2 as Sanger have updated. Left hand map is the one I posted yesterday with data for the week to 1st Jan. Right hand map is for the week up until 8th Jan. Still small numbers (0.2%) but growing slowly.

someone mentioned increases in deaths a little earlier.

By date of death, the numbers have increased in England - from a 7 day average of just under 100 on Christmas day to just over 200 as at 11th January - the lag applied for reporting delays.

and in the context of where we where in England this time last year for deaths. The 7 day average to 11th Jan 2021 was 904. And on a rapid upward trajectory still.

meanwhile in terms of cases some slowing in the rate of decline, with a small number of councils showing a very slight increase over the past couple of days (and therefore not fully reported).

These increases are very limited and all these councils are very much below their rates a week ago -with the odd exception. Worth keeping an eye on though.

These are those in the East Of England

The East Midlands

London just the one royal borough

Well it isn't clear how long people test positive on the ONS data but I think it is longer than 1 week. So some of those people are testing positive for more than 1 week in all likelihood

"current method of calculating incidence" here:
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/methodologies/covid19infectionsurveypilotmethodsandfurtherinformation

Describes the methods used to decide how long, but I've never been able to find out what they actually use, and it may change (not unreasonably if omicron typically cleared, although note they also say there's a chance of missing any very short infections) If they only had the incidence from their original weekly testing then it's going to be original only and not any of the variants.

It would be nice to know if someone could find it.

South East - rather more (although in the context of more councils than any other region to start with)

more South East

South West mainly Devon and environs, with the exception being Tewkesbury.

Finally West Midlands which covers the final set of these councils.

@lonelyplanet

More on BA.2 as Sanger have updated. Left hand map is the one I posted yesterday with data for the week to 1st Jan. Right hand map is for the week up until 8th Jan. Still small numbers (0.2%) but growing slowly.

to add to this from the sanger data

These are the percentage of cases sequenced that are BA1 or BA2 since Omicron was first sequenced here.

The number sequenced

and the overall cases sequenced each week.

Omicron as the table shows:

first sequenced in w/e 27th November

passed 50% of cases sequenced in w/e 18th December

reached close to 95% in w/e 1st Jan.

BA2 as lonely indicated at 0.2% in its 2nd week.

These are the best of the rest in terms of lineages sequenced in each of the past three weeks

Thanks for the charts @boys. It looks as if quite a lot of places had sharp falls but have levelled off in the last 2-3 days, would you say?

Re wfh - at the height of the 2020 lockdown I think it was about half of working age adults who were working from home and a good chunk of the remainder who were furloughed. It's very different this time in my experience. My employer has reverted to everyone working from home if possible but they're about the only ones I know who have out of everyone else I know - most seem to be saying to go in to the office if you need to or if things can be better done from there. I don't think there's been that big a change from a couple of months ago - a lot of office workers have become hybrid workers, and will probably go on being so. So I don't think there's a huge amount of additional contacts will start happening when we come out of plan b. Some, and enough to slow the rate of fall down properly, but I'd be surprised if we saw another huge spike just off the back of ending of a wfh request.

I think a lot of people will start socialising more after their January pay cheque.

@Firefliess

Thanks for the charts *@boys*. It looks as if quite a lot of places had sharp falls but have levelled off in the last 2-3 days, would you say?

its a minority at the moment in terms of really levelling off / very slight rise - this week should start to give a better indication of wider trajectory, and we will then have the first two normal weeks of the year in place - no more festive periods or bank holidays to distort the data.

The age profile will be interesting to see as well.

Big drops across most age groups - youngest / school age being the exception, although the 10-14s have seen a drop as compared with. Although many of those older groups are still higher than they were at Christmas. And age of course, unless you start using the gender files which are only at national level, have a five day lag.

for those with a table aversion the figures graphed by age bands.

0-19s; 20-39s and 40-59s

and the remaining groups.

Oops just to correct myself the gender age files go of course to regional level. But are still a bit of a pain.

Are we beginning to see the school effect?

Cases are creeping up again the last couple of days and I think it could be a genuine increase.

@Ohsofedupwiththis

Are we beginning to see the school effect?

Cases are creeping up again the last couple of days and I think it could be a genuine increase.

Looks from those charts that we're seeing a bit of a school effect but mainly in the under 10s. And definitely not in the 15-19 age group who seem to be following trends much more like the 20 somethings. 10-14s look more uncertain in terms of trend.