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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022

992 replies

boys3 · 01/01/2022 18:49

Whilst I'd love to say all is quiet on New Years Day the reality is:

Welcome to yet another DATA thread.

Our preference is - still - for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

All the usual links below; New for '22 suggestions always welcome, and there may well be some that just need to go.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
230
boys3 · 01/01/2022 22:34

Moving into Lancashire - again 30th December sees the peak rate for all (only just in a couple of instances; which with the reporting lag will of course go higher than the current rates shown on the graph.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
OP posts:
IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 01/01/2022 22:35

@FrazzledCareerWoman

Yes, it looks quite clear that inner London has peaked , but once schools back and people return from Xmas will rates go back up!!?
I think it's far more likely that it's a Christmas week, testing shortage, behavioural change, time off work/school, temporary thing - and that numbers will go back up really soon.
boys3 · 01/01/2022 22:37

Greater Manchester councils. 30th Dec highest rates seen so far for the majority, but not all. The Manchester line stands out somewhat - largely flat from 24th to 29th; and likely to increase further.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
OP posts:
boys3 · 01/01/2022 22:39

The slight oddities of Blackpool and Blackburn which are upper tier councils but have a closer geographic fit (I think ?) with the Lancashire county area councils. Graph does not really need any explanation.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
OP posts:
boys3 · 01/01/2022 22:42

Merseyside ish area councils. This graph maxes out currently at 2,200 per 100,000

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
OP posts:
boys3 · 01/01/2022 22:43

and then Warrington, Wirral and the two Cheshires

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
OP posts:
DrBlackbird · 01/01/2022 22:47

I know this thread is for data analysis, but does anyone want to offer their thoughts on whether we might see additional restrictions coming in? Why did The Telegraph have a headline about Johnson’s omicron strategy ’imploding’?

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 01/01/2022 22:48

Looking at the highest daily cases by specimen data, I just think it's implausible that December 21st was the peak and that the 29th won't exceed it.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 1st January 2022
mrshoho · 01/01/2022 22:58

Two other new findings will be worrying ministers as the roulette ball completes its final few loops of the wheel. Late on New Year's Eve, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) released a report which showed that vaccine efficacy against hospitalisation was not as good as initially hoped.Booster jabs work well for 10 weeks before starting to wane, but two doses of vaccine were estimated to have an efficacy of just 52 per cent after six months.

"These estimates suggest that vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease with the omicron variant is significantly lower than compared to the delta variant and wanes rapidly," said the report.

The UKHSA also found the virus itself may not be as mild as it was in South Africa, where night curfews and other restrictions to contain infections have now been lifted.

An updated analysis of over a million cases by the Biostatistics Unit of the University of Cambridge suggested the risk of hospital admission with omicron was approximately a third of that for delta in the UK, falling to about half if "emergency care" was included.

From The Telegraph article.

JanglyBeads · 01/01/2022 22:59

The Sundays are reporting masks back in secondary classrooms until a review on 26th Jan, more ventilators (only 7000) bought for schools and Ofsted inspections postponed for "a few weeks".

They all say ministers said this but teachers can't find any official source!

JanglyBeads · 01/01/2022 23:01

"Workplaces told to plan for absences of up to 25%"

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 01/01/2022 23:12

@DrBlackbird

I know this thread is for data analysis, but does anyone want to offer their thoughts on whether we might see additional restrictions coming in? Why did The Telegraph have a headline about Johnson’s omicron strategy ’imploding’?
Admissions have just started doubling and patients in hospital is just beginning to tick up now so that's probably only a few days - a week behind.

But mainly, this number of infections is unsustainable on a social level. You need enough of the guys who keep the nuclear rods cool or deliver the food to turn up to work.

So yes. More covid measures are coming.

Firefliess · 01/01/2022 23:20

The second peak in London on the 29th is at least in part the result of the delayed testing that didn't occur on Christmas Day or boxing Day though. Looking at @boys3's 7 day case rate graphs which smooths this things out it does definitely look to be declining currently.

I've been attempting to answer my own question about what levels other regions would peak at if they follow inner London's pattern - it looks like the inner London boroughs topped out at about 3,000 cases per 100,00 in a 7 day period - ie 3% of the population had detected cases in a week. If that was scaled up to the UK it would be around 280,000 UK cases a day. I think it will likely be a bit lower than that because it won't peak at exactly the same time across the whole of the UK, and possibly also lower in terms of total cases because London's population is younger and less vaccinated.

Smallkeys · 01/01/2022 23:22

They are reporting that it would be too late for restrictions so pretty sure they are going to ride this out.

CarpeVitam · 01/01/2022 23:23

Place-marking. Thank you for the new thread.

MarshaBradyo · 01/01/2022 23:24

@Smallkeys

They are reporting that it would be too late for restrictions so pretty sure they are going to ride this out.
Where did you see this Small?

Thanks

youkiddingme · 01/01/2022 23:27

pm

boys3 · 01/01/2022 23:29

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

Looking at the highest daily cases by specimen data, I just think it's implausible that December 21st was the peak and that the 29th won't exceed it.
@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas the data would agree that the 29th will surpass the 21st spec date figure in London. 28535 reported so far for 29th after 3 days; 26,363 after 3 days for 21st.
OP posts:
IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 01/01/2022 23:35

Thanks @boys3

And thanks for the ear worm.Smile

🎶 Nothing changes
On New Year's Day🎶

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 01/01/2022 23:50

@Smallkeys

They are reporting that it would be too late for restrictions so pretty sure they are going to ride this out.
It's too late to prevent the hospital admissions and deaths that are about to happen, but there's still time to prevent ones who haven't even caught it yet.
Smallkeys · 01/01/2022 23:52

@MarshaBradyo
Near the bottom

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59848634

boys3 · 01/01/2022 23:57

I thought Drowning Man from the same album could have been more topical (in terms of BJ) but thought that might push the boundaries of taste and decency on the thread.

OP posts:
Motorina · 02/01/2022 00:00

I think the difficulty with a lockdown now is that we know from experience that, the higher cases are, the harder and longer a lockdown has to be to make a meaningful impact.

We also know that the sort of restrictions in place across Europe are making little difference in the face of the extreme infectivity of Omicron.

And that China is struggling to contain cases in Xi'an.

I have family in China so have heard first accounts of just how tough and how well observed its lockdowns are. Far far more so than has ever been the case here, even at the peak of lockdown one.

I do not see any realistic possibility of imposing and getting compliance with restrictions sufficient to make a meaningful difference. I just don't.

I think we just have to let the wave hit and hope the NHS holds.

DrBlackbird · 02/01/2022 00:18

Thanks to IWannaWishYou and others for your thoughts. Even formally bringing back social distancing might have been something, but this govt just does seem to be letting omicron rip through the population. Feels like we’re living through one big lab experiment.

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 02/01/2022 00:18

@boys3

I thought Drowning Man from the same album could have been more topical (in terms of BJ) but thought that might push the boundaries of taste and decency on the thread.
Quite right.