A 2-week 'circuit breaker' could be coming after Christmas

[dancingstars]

Reported by The Times and The Guardian which means another NYE stuck indoors...

donot I agree with you too. Of course rruth you have an agenda we all do. I try to follow a range of opinions on how this might go, but I naturally gravitate towards optimism. That's my natural bias, but at least I'm aware of it.

@Happypootler

donot I agree with you too. Of course rruth you have an agenda we all do. I try to follow a range of opinions on how this might go, but I naturally gravitate towards optimism. That's my natural bias, but at least I'm aware of it.

Having an 'agenda' is not the same as having bias. Everyone has bias, yes.

I am not pushing for a lockdown, and using data to achieve that aim. I am perhaps more pessimistic which leads me to conclude a lockdown is needed when your optimism would not. But I do not have an agenda, if I thought the data suggested lockdown was not needed I would be very happy!

@rainbowdashsneeze
"Are you sure? I'm pretty sure it's only the Southern Hemisphere who are in the summer months."

Do you actually know where South Africa is?

Then rruth we agree that none of us is neutral, different interpretations are possible, and one is not morally or intellectually superior to the other. Wonderful!

@Happypootler

Then rruth we agree that none of us is neutral, different interpretations are possible, and one is not morally or intellectually superior to the other. Wonderful!

This is a non statement surely.

In addition covid denial is real, and that is an agenda

Scientific models fit a remit and inform wider decisions

Plus I don’t see any indication of ‘Covid denial’ in last few posts - it’s just a silly insult tbh

I can only see wishful thinking at play on the part of those who don’t want restrictions. This government have repeatedly shown that they are far from trigger happy when it comes to imposing them, they have consistently acted too little, too late. If they are beginning to talk about the possibility you can be sure that the evidence they are seeing is actually enough to push them away from their preferred libertarian agenda, the one that will keep them in power / put them in power, enough for them to realise that the consequences of not doing so, of failing in their responsibilities (again) will be so serious as to deny them that power. To hear Javid, who has been so obviously a libertarian, and taking that position with his eye on the leadership, refusing to rule out further restrictions, is frankly even more worrying than the situation we are already experiencing in London with a state of emergency and services becoming limited. What does he know that has swung him so far?

[quote bumbleymummy]@rrhuth yes, the trend in SA is clear. JP Morgan adjusted the sage model and showed that if the virus is less virulent we would have ⅓ of the hospitalisations by the end of January compared to last January which would be manageable without any restrictions. The SAGE model that is currently being plastered all over the media is the worst case scenario even though other, less worst case scenarios are probable. No one is denying covid. We’re denying that we need to impose more damaging restrictions based on (yet another) flawed model when we have a really high percentage of our most vulnerable population triple vaccinated and the data coming out of SA shows this variant to be milder.[/quote]
This

From the CEO of NHS Providers: "London NHS pressure mounting rapidly. Hospitalised covid patients up 30% in week vs national 4%. At 1,534 yesterday (vs 8k in Jan'21 peak). Covid linked staff absences up 140% from 1,900 Sunday to 4,700 Thurs. Some trusts now having to postpone non essential activity"

twitter.com/chrisceohopson/status/1472297080672722954?s=21

And the Financial Times reported yesterday that the majority of those hospitalised cases are incidental ie have been detected on admission for something else.

The large number of staff being off needs to be addressed by changing a policy that requires asymptomatic/very mildly ill people to stay at home for 10 days. Imagine if this has been policy pre-covid and we tested for colds/flu?

Bumbley I hope you don’t work in the NHS. The people I know who do are very mindful not to spread any infection, not just Covid. We do of course vaccinate against flu.

However Covid is not flu.

The large number of staff being off needs to be addressed by changing a policy that requires asymptomatic/very mildly ill people to stay at home for 10 days. Imagine if this has been policy pre-covid and we tested for colds/flu?

So you want nurses and doctors with COVID to go into work and treat patients who don't have covid but are already ill enough with something else to require hospitalization?

How many of those people will then die as covid is effectively the straw that breaks the camel's back as far as their bodies go?

I just wish they’d announce something, one way or another. The uncertainty is awful, not knowing if we are going to be able to see family and friends. We’ve already cancelled a whole bunch of stuff as we were trying to protect Xmas week (per Mr Whitty’s advice)

Does anyone think there will be a press conference today?

@Choux

The large number of staff being off needs to be addressed by changing a policy that requires asymptomatic/very mildly ill people to stay at home for 10 days. Imagine if this has been policy pre-covid and we tested for colds/flu?

So you want nurses and doctors with COVID to go into work and treat patients who don't have covid but are already ill enough with something else to require hospitalization?

How many of those people will then die as covid is effectively the straw that breaks the camel's back as far as their bodies go?

Yes quite.

The idea that spreading more covid to more vulnerable people in hospital is the answer is

@Youngatheart00

I just wish they’d announce something, one way or another. The uncertainty is awful, not knowing if we are going to be able to see family and friends. We’ve already cancelled a whole bunch of stuff as we were trying to protect Xmas week (per Mr Whitty’s advice)

Does anyone think there will be a press conference today?

You could make the decision yourself not to get together.

@Youngatheart00

I just wish they’d announce something, one way or another. The uncertainty is awful, not knowing if we are going to be able to see family and friends. We’ve already cancelled a whole bunch of stuff as we were trying to protect Xmas week (per Mr Whitty’s advice)

Does anyone think there will be a press conference today?

Javid is 'not ruling out more restrictions before Christmas'. This is unhelpful vagueness, but this government usually locks down late and therefore for longer.

@Choux we’ve already done that for several events but I know my parents will be so upset if the family chooses not to get together on Xmas day. They are very law abiding though so if the government put in place a circuit break/lockdown in relation to indoor socialising the decision would be made for us.

It’s all so tough. I really don’t want to put elderly relatives at risk. It feels like we are right back where we were a year ago.

Are we going to need to do a last minute scramble for Xmas dinner bits for 2 again….

the trend in SA is clear. JP Morgan adjusted the sage model and showed that if the virus is less virulent we would have ⅓ of the hospitalisations by the end of January compared to last January which would be manageable without any restrictions

Isn't the data from Denmark more pessimistic? What about the Netherlands?

If we introduce more restrictions now and in 2 weeks the data is very bad, we are ahead of the curve... if Omicron turns out to be mild, we can unlock, the NHS has had a break and happy days.

I don't envy any if those at the top. It's such a fast moving fluid situation.

This was reported in the Irish Times on Danish cases a few days ago. Seems in like with what's come out of SA.

Denmark has recorded 3,437 Omicron cases, authorities said on Monday, close to a doubling in the past two days. About 9 per cent of those infected with Omicron had received three doses of a Covid-19 vaccine, 75 per cent two doses, while 14 per cent were unvaccinated.

Thirty-seven people have been admitted to hospital with the variant in Denmark, with 28 of those testing positive before hospital admission or immediately afterwards and eight who were admitted for other reasons and then tested positive some days later. This is in stark contrast to admissions with other variants, where the vast majority of patients tested positive before admission, suggesting that a significant number of patients in the Omicron wave may test positive for Covid even if they are not being treated for it.

[quote Youngatheart00]@Choux we’ve already done that for several events but I know my parents will be so upset if the family chooses not to get together on Xmas day. They are very law abiding though so if the government put in place a circuit break/lockdown in relation to indoor socialising the decision would be made for us.

It’s all so tough. I really don’t want to put elderly relatives at risk. It feels like we are right back where we were a year ago.

Are we going to need to do a last minute scramble for Xmas dinner bits for 2 again….[/quote]
I've got used to contingency planning. Buying something nice now, put in the freezer, avoid a scramble if it does go tits up.

Sajid Javid was just hedging his bets this morning
Andrew Marr is standing down and he didn't seem to be in the mood to push it from the bit I saw.
I guess it's the data that is so important.
It has to be justified to do a circuit breaker but it's drilling down into the figures that isn't easy I suppose.
Andy Burnham did say that the hospital admissions in Manchester were not cause for concern , he didn't seem to want a lockdown or calling for one today. London is badly hit of course :(
Who knows what's going on ?

@Imdreamingofapeacefulxmas

I don't envy any if those at the top. It's such a fast moving fluid situation.

And made all the harder by being a) useless b) corrupt c) pathological liars.

I wouldn't envy
Brown or Major or Thatcher if they were in charge but if have more confidence they would try.

@StarCat2020

The UK has ended up with the worst of all worlds -

death rate is high
cases are ridiculous
MH is damaged
economy is shot

But we have control of our borders and sovereignty so we are all happy.