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A 2-week 'circuit breaker' could be coming after Christmas

834 replies

dancingstars · 18/12/2021 00:31

Reported by The Times and The Guardian which means another NYE stuck indoors...

OP posts:
Thread gallery
13
StarCat2020 · 19/12/2021 03:25

The UK has ended up with the worst of all worlds -

death rate is high
cases are ridiculous
MH is damaged
economy is shot

Lollipop999 · 19/12/2021 07:21

@Enzbear

The seemingly outraged but terribly unselfish, don't you know, phonies making out that they are saving the NHS/old/vulnerable are actually extremely selfish, reasonably well off, mostly middle class who are braying for a lockdown to have a bit more time at home, preferably being paid/hoping for another payout but nevermind if they don't as they're alright thanks: savings in the bank, mortgage paid off, probably looking towards early retirement, barely a social life (garden centre anyone?) etc. Don't be fooled, they are only looking out for themselves.They don't give a shit about vulnerable children or education or young people on low incomes struggling or anything but themselves. The Telegraph have termed the phrase "The COVID comfortables" You can find them on this thread.
Very true.

You have accurately described my friend who is almost gleeful at the thought of another lockdown after spending most of last year on furlough, exercising every day and doing walks with various friends. Her dh is a high earner.

She has no concept or sympathy for anyone who may be in a different situation and may be struggling and has become extremely judgemental of others.

Dippydinosaurus · 19/12/2021 07:42

@StarCat2020

The UK has ended up with the worst of all worlds -

death rate is high
cases are ridiculous
MH is damaged
economy is shot

The death rate is currently 0.001%. Obviously this could change. But even with 100,000 cases and 1,000 deaths a day it's still 0.01% - just to put it into perspective for the next generation who will have to pay off furlough costs for the next 50 years
Imdreamingofapeacefulxmas · 19/12/2021 08:40

Spector article is interesting but I don't find it surprising that they model for worse case scenario?

TheScenicWay · 19/12/2021 08:54

@Imdreamingofapeacefulxmas

Spector article is interesting but I don't find it surprising that they model for worse case scenario?
What is shocking is that the government uses worst case scenario data to influence the public and make decisions that affect people’s livelihoods, mental health and general quality of life on this data.
Kennykenkencat · 19/12/2021 09:20

SAGE needs to be held accountable for their ridiculous figures.

The latest one is that 2 million people per day could be infected

That would mean we would all be immune by the end of January.
A lockdown that no one will take notice of isn’t going to stop that level of infection so why bother locking down.
If we are all then immune for 6 months without any jabs then not only does it save money but as the virus has no one to infect then it would die off.

bumbleymummy · 19/12/2021 09:23

Exactly. We don’t hear about the evaluation showing that if omicron is milder (As SA data shows it to be), we’d have ⅓ of the hospitalisations in January and that would be manageable without any further restrictions (JP Morgan figures in article). Just the worst case scenario one that scares people and destroys lives and livelihoods.

rrhuth · 19/12/2021 09:25

@TheScenicWay

That Spectator article is shocking. It confirms what many of us believe.
Yes of course it does, many articles are written by covid deniers for covid deniers Grin
paranoidnamechanger · 19/12/2021 09:28

There was a protest yesterday in London which - big shocker - hasn't been picked up by most of the media:

twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1472239733011013633

bumbleymummy · 19/12/2021 09:28

I guess ‘covid denier’ is the new ‘antivaxxer’ as far as nonsensical insults go Hmm

TheScenicWay · 19/12/2021 09:36

@rrhuth interesting that you jump to the ‘covid denier’ conclusion. I was referencing the fact that many of us believe Sage figures are overly pessimistic and often wrong and shouldn’t be used to make such huge decisions.
I wonder what your agenda is Hmm

Kennykenkencat · 19/12/2021 10:00

Have SAGE figures ever been right?

Or have they been right in the sense that a stopped clock is right 2times per day.

Ultimately when someone gets something so wrong for so many times wouldn’t it be the conclusion you stop us tensing to them.

I think Birdie friend had more idea about what was going on than SAGE ever has

Kennykenkencat · 19/12/2021 10:00

Listening to them

Bumtum126 · 19/12/2021 10:08

SAGE produce models not predictions , no they won't be 'right' , they produce the models based on what they have asked to do to .

BigHuff · 19/12/2021 10:16

[quote drainitallout]@Mumadof3 ok you may not be ready to have the vaccine now, but it's just not true that your natural immunity is superior to any vaccine. This is a new virus. Your body has no idea how to fight it. You have no idea if your body will cope well and you'll be asymptomatic/ mildly affected, or if you'll get really ill.
That's the stark reality of remaining unvaccinated I'm afraid. [/quote]
Let's break down immunity into antigen recognition, response, and immunological memory.

Recognition -
Logically, if you have had covid then your immune cells have been exposed to the entirety of the virus and thus are better able to recognise both the original strain you were exposed to as well as variants.

The vaccine exposes your immune cells to only a small part of the spike protein, hence your immune cells will be less likely to recognise variants, especially if the spike protein is what is different in those variants.

Response -
From what I have read (very few papers where this is directly compared) response (antibody production, mobilisation of immune cells) is broadly similar in covid recovered vs vaccinated individuals.

Memory/persistence -
Again, there are few papers which directly compare infection and recovery vs vaccination alone. Most recent data (again, no direct comparisons that I have found) suggest no obvious difference in T and B memory cell responses in covid recovered vs naive but vaccinated individuals.

The story is a bit clearer for antibody response. This recent paper concluded that neutralising antibodies persist for at least 14 months post infection. In contrast, there is a severe drop in neutralising antibody titre at 6 months post-vaccination, hence the booster requirement.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34899762/

Ilovegreentomatoes · 19/12/2021 10:25

The only way to slow it down is a proper lockdown for at least four weeks.Should really be happening from tomorrow but we all know boris is so worried about denting his already decreasing popularity so it wont happen.

Ilovegreentomatoes · 19/12/2021 10:26

Plus he doesn't want to spend the money for furlough again.

rainbowdashsneeze · 19/12/2021 10:28

@GeorgieTheGorgeousGoat

It's also summer in South Africa, cases will of course be lower then.
Are you sure? I'm pretty sure it's only the Southern Hemisphere who are in the summer months.
Donotlie · 19/12/2021 10:41

[quote TheScenicWay]@rrhuth interesting that you jump to the ‘covid denier’ conclusion. I was referencing the fact that many of us believe Sage figures are overly pessimistic and often wrong and shouldn’t be used to make such huge decisions.
I wonder what your agenda is Hmm[/quote]
Good point! Can't there also be an agenda behind the "Covid fanatics"?
I sincerely hope not as it causes divide and hatred among us ordinary people, so we can forget to question the government and media. Also, this level of fear can't be good for the mental health.

rrhuth · 19/12/2021 10:49

In response to the 'covid fanatic' comment:

  • I am not afraid
  • I am not certain of anything and neither is anyone else - but scientific opinion is pretty clear (with some outlying/fringe scepticism)
  • I believe the government statistics to be broadly correct
  • covid is real and the problems it causes are real
  • excess death stats support covid death stats

I have no agenda, I do have opions - one of which is those who constantly question covid stats are misguided.

MarshaBradyo · 19/12/2021 10:55

Donot I agree with you and I don’t have an issue with the modelling situation, as long as people know what it covers

Florianus · 19/12/2021 10:56

Are you sure? I'm pretty sure it's only the Southern Hemisphere who are in the summer months.

South Africa is in the Southern Hemisphere. !!!!

rrhuth · 19/12/2021 10:58

@bumbleymummy

I guess ‘covid denier’ is the new ‘antivaxxer’ as far as nonsensical insults go Hmm
Covid denial shares many of the tactics of climate change denial, including constantly nitpicking over stats when the trend is clear and pretending there are two opposing views of equal weight when the (respected) scientific community has a general consensus.

I do not think the term 'covid denier' is meaningless.

Neither is 'antivaxxer' - accepting of course there are some who have refused a vaccine who are not 'antivaxxers' - we know there is a significant antivaccine element in all countries including the UK.

TheScenicWay · 19/12/2021 11:02

I very much believe covid is real as I have had it. I have known people who have died with it and people who have had very mild symptoms.
I also believe that we’re at a stage now where we need to live with it and get on with our lives.
Lockdowns, closing businesses and schools and imposing vaccine passports are not the answer and is disproportionate to where we are currently.
My opinion is just as valid as anyone else’s and is shared by many people.

bumbleymummy · 19/12/2021 11:18

@rrhuth yes, the trend in SA is clear. JP Morgan adjusted the sage model and showed that if the virus is less virulent we would have ⅓ of the hospitalisations by the end of January compared to last January which would be manageable without any restrictions. The SAGE model that is currently being plastered all over the media is the worst case scenario even though other, less worst case scenarios are probable. No one is denying covid. We’re denying that we need to impose more damaging restrictions based on (yet another) flawed model when we have a really high percentage of our most vulnerable population triple vaccinated and the data coming out of SA shows this variant to be milder.