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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

997 replies

boys3 · 17/12/2021 21:17

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
158
Notmulan · 18/12/2021 20:01

@Postdatedpandemic no.

Notmulan · 18/12/2021 20:07

This is the Netherlands dashboard.

coronadashboard.government.nl/

This is Denmark’s www.sst.dk/en/english/corona-eng/status-of-the-epidemic/covid-19-updates-statistics-and-charts

Perihelion · 18/12/2021 20:09

51% of Friday's positive tests in Scotland showed S gene drop out.
5917 positives cases reported today with the caveat " Public Health Scotland note there continues to be an impact on turnaround times between specimens being taken and results reported, due to larger volumes of tests being processed by labs "
I think it's going to be a quiet Hogmanay.

LookNorthbyNorthWest · 18/12/2021 20:09

@Notmulan

The Delta variant has peaked but Omicron cases have not, which is why they are locking down.

User12398712 · 18/12/2021 20:26

Could someone explain something to me please? A few posts have said that we shouldn't look at South Africa because omicron is being suppressed by immunity from prior infection whereas the UK has more immunity from vaccine, and immunity from infection is more effective. But, we have had an awful lot of prior infection as well. Worldometers shows the UK as having three times as many cases per 100k as SA. I appreciate we will be inflated due to high testing here but have SA really had a significantly higher rate of cases? Or is it to do with the different strains each country has had?

Notmulan · 18/12/2021 20:34

@LookNorthbyNorthWest that might well be it. I assumed some of the steep rise in cases before was due to omicron rather than delta but perhaps not. Didn’t they detect cases on the klm flight? Considering the close links to SA it wouldn’t be far fetched to assume they’ve had it for longer

User12398712 · 18/12/2021 20:40

I suppose the question I should be asking is, is there any data on the true rates of infection countries have had.

sirfredfredgeorge · 18/12/2021 20:48

Notmulan I don't believe there's any strong evidence that their omnicron cases are dropping, that's still their delta wave - the assumption I'd make is they know there's omicron spreading, but yet to feed through, certainly if they knew it was omicron dropping, it would be most strange.

Beware of internet pundits I've not heard anyone say Denmark has peaked though, and I even follow the "things are great" twitter people.

For those asking for dates of peaks. From Spi-m

I guess we'll know what they won't be... (this is sarcasm based on their very low success rate so far) they could of course be right this time, and may well be as good as any predictions.

peridito · 18/12/2021 21:21

What is Spi-m please ? Or is it a joke ?

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway regarding testing translating into positive cases ,I reckon people are using LFTs which they don't report and not progressing to PCRs .

herecomesthsun · 18/12/2021 21:21

@peridito

What is Spi-m please ? Or is it a joke ?

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway regarding testing translating into positive cases ,I reckon people are using LFTs which they don't report and not progressing to PCRs .

Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M)
ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway · 18/12/2021 21:32

@peridito

What is Spi-m please ? Or is it a joke ?

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway regarding testing translating into positive cases ,I reckon people are using LFTs which they don't report and not progressing to PCRs .

Problem is there are no LFTs to be had around here. Pharmacies are all out. No idea how long postal ones will take to come.
lonelyplanet · 18/12/2021 22:10

I ordered some online this afternoon so not true.

MrsMigginsEggNogShoppe · 18/12/2021 22:29

@lonelyplanet

I ordered some online this afternoon so not true.
None available again online now though.
Regulus · 18/12/2021 22:48

@lonelyplanet

I ordered some online this afternoon so not true.
Not true for you, but that is not the same as not being true. Yet again I'm a close contact but no postal or local pickups
IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 18/12/2021 22:52

Alternative view to Andrew Lilico's "it'll all be over in a fortnight" nonsense.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
lonelyplanet · 18/12/2021 23:08

Regulus, try again later lft availability keeps coming and going.

wintertravel1980 · 18/12/2021 23:41

I think Lilico's approach is more complicated than "it will all be over in a fortnight".

His view is that total cases might peak in 2 weeks (say - on Dec 27th), however, most of those infections will be in the younger age groups who are unlikely to be hospitalised.

If these young low risk individuals socialise with older/vulnerable population between Christmas and New Year, this may lead to a massive spike in hospitalisations and deaths in the first half of Jan. By then cases may be on the way down but the pressure on healthcare may become unsustainable.

There may be hope that Omicron may indeed be "milder" but a 30-50% reduction in virulence will not make a big difference. We need to see a much bigger (e.g. 6-fold) drop to materially influence the end outcome. The best cause of action might be to delay multi-generational gatherings until we have passed the eye of the storm. Lilico suggested that the government gives everyone an extra holiday on January 6 and recommends postponing Christmas celebrations until then.

It is only one person's view but most of his modelling has so far been more accurate than SPI-M projections.

Lelivre · 18/12/2021 23:46

@User12398712 you may find this helpful in explaining further;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/14/south-africa-previous-infections-may-explain-omicron-hospitalisation-rate

Other factors are at play (for one thing our aged population) but regarding their recent large delta wave, in part it states:

In a survey that fortuitously just ended in [Gauteng province] on Friday what we demonstrate is that the seropositivity in Gauteng is about 72%.

IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas · 18/12/2021 23:51

Thanks for the far less facetious summary @wintertravel1980

The putting off Christmas until January part makes sense, but I think commentators like Lilico seem to be expecting our Omicron wave to closely mirror South Africa's.

As if all countries will get the same Omicron wave.

When of course they won't.

We didn't all get the same Alpha and Delta waves.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December
CrabbyCat · 19/12/2021 07:34

@NeverHomeAlone I found this article by the German Ministry of Health very helpful on guidelines for using FFP2 masks www.zusammengegencorona.de/en/masking-up-ffp2-masks-to-protect-others-and-yourself/ (the link should be to the English version) . Essentially change them as soon as they get damp and don't wear for longer than 8 hours. Although they are designed for single use, their guidelines apparently backed by some research is that when used for personal use you can reuse if you leave to dry for 7 days.

CrabbyCat · 19/12/2021 07:42

I hadn't realised just how much evidence there now is that masks work for Covid though, there's a good summary here www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118 . As well as doing modelling research and aerosol experiments in a lab, there has also been epidemiological research comparing Covid rates in countries / US states with and without masks mandates. The evidence is also clear they provide at least some protection to the wearer, depending on the type. It's interesting how little the debate in the UK about masks seems to pull in any of the evidence.

Piggyinblankets · 19/12/2021 07:46

I rarely se this written but there are two key differences between Gauteng and the UK :

  1. Gauteng empties out in the Christmas period because of the nature of employment so people specifically looking at Gauteng may not see a rise reflected in the way they expect

Perhaps more significantly and applicable to whole of SA

  1. school hols began 9 December and run til about mid January.
CrabbyCat · 19/12/2021 07:55

@Regulus with lateral flows, we've found the most reliable time to order them online is early in the morning. We're finding arrival times are increasingly erratic though, the Royal Mail is apparently struggling with staff absence round us.

Toastmost · 19/12/2021 07:58

@User12398712

Could someone explain something to me please? A few posts have said that we shouldn't look at South Africa because omicron is being suppressed by immunity from prior infection whereas the UK has more immunity from vaccine, and immunity from infection is more effective. But, we have had an awful lot of prior infection as well. Worldometers shows the UK as having three times as many cases per 100k as SA. I appreciate we will be inflated due to high testing here but have SA really had a significantly higher rate of cases? Or is it to do with the different strains each country has had?
Yes I'm curious about this, our levels of infection have been incredibly high.
NeverHomeAlone · 19/12/2021 08:13

Thank you @crabbycat

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