Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

I'd really appreciate people's views on this article from today's Daily Sceptic re the data.... dailysceptic.org/2021/12/18/omicron-surge-is-mostly-due-to-ramping-up-testing-data-suggests/

I have dyscalculia and figures etc are not my thing.

Tenuous link to covid...

Royal Mail service update can be found here. So if you've ordered LFTs, you can find if your post code area is experiencing issues.
Click on "Deliveries today"

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

Thanks for the far less facetious summary *@wintertravel1980*

The putting off Christmas until January part makes sense, but I think commentators like Lilico seem to be expecting our Omicron wave to closely mirror South Africa's.

As if all countries will get the same Omicron wave.

When of course they won't.

We didn't all get the same Alpha and Delta waves.

What I don’t understand then with that chart is then that South Africa has a lot more immunity than us because on that chart we have an awful lot more

Which does bring up the fact that with the huge amount of testing going on as compared with last time are we actually seeing a far more realistic picture this time

The problem with Covid is it has always been like Schroedingers cat - and Omicron is No different because there is clear 100% data simultaneously things could be true about it which actually can’t be because some are directly opposite (if that makes sense)

@ILookAtTheFloor

I'd really appreciate people's views on this article from today's Daily Sceptic re the data.... dailysceptic.org/2021/12/18/omicron-surge-is-mostly-due-to-ramping-up-testing-data-suggests/

I have dyscalculia and figures etc are not my thing.

Is that what Toby Young is doing these days? I did wonder...

Can anyone share a link that shows the demographics of those hospitalised with Covid at the moment? I know it is mostly the unvaxxed, but curious to see who makes up the other % (read recently that it is CEV women in their 40s, which has worried me).

You really can't compare the total number of people infected in South Africa and the UK by looking at reported cases. Testing in South Africa is much lower than the UK - many people have to pay for tests and can't afford them.

I don't know of any data for that, the NI have
www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/health/doh-vaccination-status-weeks-45-48.pdf
also remember that due to the numbers vaccinated, the unvaccinated are not the majority of individuals needing treatment currently, they're just disproportionately needing treatment.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I don't know of any data for that, the NI have www.health-ni.gov.uk/sites/default/files/publications/health/doh-vaccination-status-weeks-45-48.pdf also remember that due to the numbers vaccinated, the unvaccinated are not the majority of individuals needing treatment currently, they're just disproportionately needing treatment.

Thank you, I wonder if Scotland has a breakdown like this?

Thanks for the new thread, quietly lurking but reading every post, as always.

An interesting thread about herd immunity:
mobile.twitter.com/mgmgomes1/status/1472253207560830984

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/19/mass-rapid-tests-in-liverpool-cut-hospital-stays-by-a-third

I’m remembering John Deeks from Birmingham questioning use of LFTs precisely because of their low hit rate, but think this was in the initial stage. Did the detection rates just get better throughout the trial?

Couldn’t find exactly what I was looking for, but these are relevant:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-tweets-from-prof-jon-deeks-about-lateral-flow-test-accuracy-at-the-university-of-birmingham/

www.bmj.com/content/bmj/371/bmj.m4469.full.pdf

Full report on Liverpool announced and linked here
www.liverpool.ac.uk/coronavirus/research-and-analysis/covid-smart-pilot/

twitter.com/bbcrosatkins/status/1472094281976500224?s=21

A quick rundown of where we are from Ros Atkins:

@Piggyinblankets

I rarely se this written but there are two key differences between Gauteng and the UK :

1. Gauteng empties out in the Christmas period because of the nature of employment so people specifically looking at Gauteng may not see a rise reflected in the way they expect

Perhaps more significantly and applicable to whole of SA

2. school hols began 9 December and run til about mid January.

I didn't know either of those things @Piggyinblankets Thank you.

[quote lonelyplanet]An interesting thread about herd immunity:
mobile.twitter.com/mgmgomes1/status/1472253207560830984[/quote]
I don't know that Twitter account so I have no assessment of their credibility.

Does she say why - if the herd immunity threshold is less than 70% - we have never reached it?

Or does she think we have?

Does she say why - if the herd immunity threshold is less than 70% - we have never reached it?

70% was original without mitigations she talks of, the UK has kept infections well below this.

Delta and Omicron are higher - over 80% and probably over 90% - although past infection is protective in both to different extents, so it's not a whole new 90% infection.

I think the main point in that thread is how "flatten the curve" became "zero covid" and in hindsight how that bad has been for protecting the vulnerable.

I think the main point in that thread is how "flatten the curve" became "zero covid" and in hindsight how that bad has been for protecting the vulnerable.

I don't think that was the point of the thread. She was saying that, "The expectation is that everybody will eventually be infected (and not only once) and using HIT over long stretches of time is not helpful."

Herd immunity is not possible with a changing virus which can be caught more than once. No one sensible would suggest that in the UK zero covid is a feasible solution.

Tweet from @Pouriaa who runs (?) the Dashboard today

“Today's rolling rates, change percentages, and cases map will be even worse... new territory.

Closely monitoring the scales, boundaries, and charts.

PS:
bigger numbers => larger data files => increased latency”

(Not sure what latency means in this context?)

@JanglyBeads

Tweet from *@Pouriaa* who runs (?) the Dashboard today

“Today's rolling rates, change percentages, and cases map will be even worse... new territory.

Closely monitoring the scales, boundaries, and charts.

PS:
bigger numbers => larger data files => increased latency”

(Not sure what latency means in this context?)

I assume it means by the time they've received, processed and published the data, it is nearly out of date?

For a data thread there are an awful lot of links to opinion pieces and tweets.

Every 'scientist', mathematician, epidemiologist, biologist, journalist, etc and his/her dog seem to have a view to share.

Well I was panicking about today's data due to the above post from Twitter but it looks like more of the same? But I'm not some kind of data-bod so maybe the rest is 'new territory'?

The links to the raw data are in the OP @amicissimma if you prefer spread sheets only. Data needs analysing and interpreting, most the links here are reasonably sound and if they are not someone will let you know.

82,886 cases reported today

83,000 (we would expect sundays to be lower, people have less reason to LFD, and hospital testing less due to lower regular admissions - the "same day" tests. PCR processing is often a little bit lower. So this fall does not mean cases have peaked. [*]

However, London is certainly not accellerating, and unless there's a load lost down a sofa, it's unlikely that the 17th and even the 16th will go above the 15th. That still can be an artifact of testing (e.g. lack of test capacity, lack of LFD's for asymptomatic catching) but it certainly indicates that the rate has slowed.

[*] I hope that avoiding sarcasm enough!

Well I was panicking about today's data due to the above post from Twitter but it looks like more of the same? But I'm not some kind of data-bod so maybe the rest is 'new territory'?

I'm pretty sure the tweet was in the context of running the service and reliability, and not in the actual figures, ie now the big rise is being included in the various line graphs based on "7 day", do they still render okay, or does it all break (scales). Does the correlation bits still work and in a timely fashion (latency) when there's more cases etc.