Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

But lots of Londoners have had prior infections too, as well as vaccinations. Obviously anecdotal, so perhaps out of place on this thread, but virtually everyone I know between primary school age and 50s/60s has had Covid in one of the waves or been exposed to it multiple times and never tested positive or been symptomatic. And of course there are estimates that vaccination rates in London is as low as 70%.

@Ontopofthesunset

But lots of Londoners have had prior infections too, as well as vaccinations. Obviously anecdotal, so perhaps out of place on this thread, but virtually everyone I know between primary school age and 50s/60s has had Covid in one of the waves or been exposed to it multiple times and never tested positive or been symptomatic. And of course there are estimates that vaccination rates in London is as low as 70%.

But there’s a lot of people above that age - in fact I don’t know anyone over the age of 55 who has had Covid yet. None of my colleagues at work, none of my parents friends have had it - no kids at school to infect them!

Ontopofthesunset

Unless you believe the vaccine to have been worthless at stopping delta - which there's no evidence for - then there would have to be large numbers of people in London who have never been infected, the delta wave in London was reportedly mostly driven by unvaccinated.

90,418 cases today, down on yesterday, so clearly peaked...

Actually the testing seems to be still holding up well, cases again not being added with huge lag despite the obvious increases in testing, so unless it's because they should be even higher, then that's good, almost certainly todays figures are down because of the weekend, but the LFD results show that a lot of tests did happen today still so perhaps not as proportionately down as normally at the weekend?

London has quite a bit fewer same day positives as recently, given the LFD comment above, does this suggest significant slowing? (although it shows more non London areas are being hit, but that's not surprising of course, and still 25% of cases reported today in London)

Sage minutes now published:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021/sage-99-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-16-december-2021

90,418 cases today, down on yesterday, so clearly peaked...

That would be incredible

Is it too early to say? I really hope it’s the case

No Marsha, it's very unlikely to have peaked, almost no chance in fact, Saturdays are expected to be down, they normally are, it's difficult to know what a "good" number might be.

I'm not sure it is, is it?

I was thinking of SA Omicron wave in comparison to Delta and Beta. I agree it is too early to say what we will see in the UK.

Just as a point of reference, here is the quote from Dr Angelique Coetzee back in July 2021:

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-south-africas-healthcare-workers-struggle-under-pressure-of-third-wave-12363905

If you have never been in such a situation, you can't imagine what it is like. We've been dealing with 30 or 40 positive cases every day. The pressure is extreme.

If I speak to you now, that means someone with COVID will not been seen - and there is no point trying to message. I don't have time to answer.

Here are the comments from same Dr Coetzee on Omicon:

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-boris-johnson-over-reacting-to-omicron-and-creating-hysteria-south-african-doctor-dr-angelique-coetzee-says-12495876

I fully agree that perceived “mildness’ may be the result of SA high levels of acquired immunity (e.g. in the Beta wave) but nevertheless the contrast is striking.

I'm sorry because I can't remember where I've seen the graph, but PCR times have increased significantly in the past day or two. From over three quarters back within 24 hours, to under two thirds, if I recall correctly.

I wouldn't be surprised if at least some of the slight drop in cases isn't this having peaked, but simply that the tests are still in a lab somewhere waiting to be processed.

Plus people won't want to test a week before Christmas unless they really have to.

@sirfredfredgeorge

No Marsha, it's very unlikely to have peaked, almost no chance in fact, Saturdays are expected to be down, they normally are, it's difficult to know what a "good" number might be.

I figured that was what you meant.

I was rather pleased though that the figures were lower nonetheless,

Oh right is it funny?

I have no idea what was meant!

I don’t get it..

Well, it's very serious, but fred was deliberately expressing some wishful thinking there. With which we all sympathise.

Was it a comment on people who talk about peaks too early…

I didn’t get the sarcasm not paying attention clearly

It was very gentle wishful thinking. It would be lovely if we had come through the peak, but it is oo early to say and also Saturday (when cases are lower) unfortunately.

I certainly read sirfred’s comment as sarcasm, not wishful thinking.

Lilico’s model indicated cases should peak on Dec 27 (+/-). I think it is a realistic “central case”.

[quote Bizawit]@Ohsofedupwiththis blood pressure and abdominal problems caused by Covid?

Thanks for the new thread[/quote]
I was ad tied to hospital, Infact blue light ambulance called, due to incredibly high blood pressure issues. Turned out it was almost certainly linked to covid - which was confirmed with a test on being admitted to the ward.

Never had Bp issues previously but it really spiked when I had covid. Took ages to reduce, including two different high dose medications.

Now likely to have hypertension for life and now need to take two BP medications daily for life too.

I know one other person locally who developed BP issues (fortunately not at such a high level) during his covid infection, and after.
I believe links have been made with covid and BP increases in the US.

27th December would be quite soon for the peak (good in a way if we don't have too far to go).

We had planned to go away for a few days to see a vulnerable family member on 27th. We are resigned to the idea that we may not be able to (if in lockdown or if anyone else tests positive). Whichever, I'm just hoping we can get through these few weeks without too much disaster.

Placemarking as usual for the data

@wintertravel1980

I certainly read sirfred’s comment as sarcasm, not wishful thinking.

Lilico’s model indicated cases should peak on Dec 27 (+/-). I think it is a realistic “central case”.

Thanks for this

Is there a Twitter feed etc where he/ she talks about it more?

Would be interested in seeing thinking around it, if any

I certainly read sirfred’s comment as sarcasm, not wishful thinking

That was certainly the intention! Wales, if they had the internet connected at the weekends or whatever it is that prevents them reporting might've been enough to still have it increasing too.

Do any of the NHS sources update at the weekend?

90,418 cases today, down on yesterday, so clearly peaked

Isn't it more likely that, with Christmas coming up, fewer people are testing?

27th December would be quite soon for the peak (good in a way if we don't have too far to go).

It is Dec 27th (+/-) by specimen date so we will not know whether we passed the peak until early Jan (and probably later due to testing delays over the Christmas period).

A rapid wave lasting 3-4 weeks would be consistent with Gauteng. UK and SA immunity profiles are indeed very different but London does have high levels of acquired immunity.

We may get an earlier preview from the London data.

Isn't it more likely that, with Christmas coming up, fewer people are testing?

We won't know for a few days, with the lag in the number of tests data, but the continuous refrain of "people don't follow the rules" has never previously been shown to be true, people follow the rules - and ever further through the pandemic we get, the biggest rulebreakers are more and more likely to have already had it, as the rules are there to stop the spread.

but PCR times have increased significantly in the past day or two. From over three quarters back within 24 hours, to under two thirds, if I recall correctly

Isn't this just the higher incidence of postal tests due to capacity at testing centres, rather than explicit lab delays? It's very hard of course to know in a strongly rising figures if there are cases missing though of course.