Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Under primary diagnosis supplement - for example: London admissions with/for Covid - 2541 total, of which 1630 are primarily FOR covid

AARRGGHGGHGH This is not admissions, this is in patients at 8am, it says nothing about the admission ratio. You could get those stats for in patients with 90% with covid or 90% primary covid, it all depends on average time in hospital. We do not know admission reason.

Given the likelihood that people with primary covid are treated longer in hospital (which was the case in previous waves, as even coincidental covid in a long term patient stops being counted after N days), then it's likely that admissions are lower percentage primary covid but we don't have any idea on admissions.

It is also irrelevant as total demand on beds is what matters - and that doesn't matter much at all.

"and that doesn't matter much at all"

Erm, that was just a random bit that was tacked on the end, imagine I didn't write it.

In the absence of official data, I thought I'd share that the Zoe Covid app estimates over 200,000 cases today

I thought I'd share that the Zoe Covid app estimates over 200,000 cases today

That's surely a drop isn't it? Or do you mean that's the estimate that would be reported?

26 positive patients in my trust on 27th October 2021 for whoever asked.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I thought I'd share that the Zoe Covid app estimates over 200,000 cases today

That's surely a drop isn't it? Or do you mean that's the estimate that would be reported?

Screenshot from the app

@containsnuts

In the absence of official data, I thought I'd share that the Zoe Covid app estimates over 200,000 cases today

I thought things are looking more promising on Zoe. Still growing but not as fast as previously?

That does seem really low for an estimate, when the confirmed cases are not far off that number. The Guardian was reporting today that David Spiegelhalter thought the actual number of cases was probably around half a million.

This is an interesting thread on the rather spurious and untrustworthy data used to establish CDC's decision on 5 day release:

twitter.com/LazarusLong13/status/1477194315512246272

Interesting Piggy notice the "30 ct" as "allowed to leave isolation", in the UK we were running 14 day isolation of yourself and all contacts on 40ct during some of 2020, although I think that did get dropped to 25/28 for most of 2021, and I think it was less initially. It's another difference of what is a "positive test" difference between different countries.

[quote JanglyBeads]@Firefliess although am seeing some experts saying with omicron you're most infectious not before, but just after, symptoms appear?[/quote]
Yes I did see something similar suggesting that it was increasingly common for people to get symptoms a day or so before first testing positive on LFTs - which would fit with the peak infectiousness being just after symptom onset. Though I think you surely have to factor in behaviour too - you're much more likely to spread it before you know you've got it - making that a particularly likely time for transmission even if viral load is a bit lower

Will the dashboard be updated today?

Will the dashboard be updated today?

Yes, but it's delayed, and it is only expected to have England.

Due to a delay in receipt of healthcare and deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. We do not currently have an estimated time for the release.

Only data in England due today though coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new/record/863ee4e6-faae-4c30-a935-431bc02640d9

As SirFred said.

Happy New Year all

Today's figures, cases and deaths England only, vaxx NI only:

I was thinking, the issue of people tending not to register LFTs (which AFAIK has never been quantified) is even more important at the moment, when many many are taking lateral flows. When looking at positivity rates we need to remember that they must be artificially inflated - to an extent - because the denominator is too small.

@JanglyBeads

I was thinking, the issue of people tending not to register LFTs (which AFAIK has never been quantified) is even more important at the moment, when many many are taking lateral flows. When looking at positivity rates we need to remember that they must be artificially inflated - to an extent - because the denominator is too small.

The positivity rates reported have always been PCR only (as I think they realise that the large majority of negative LFTs are definitely not reported)

I'm sure there is an issue with some people just using LFTs and not reported positive results, though but doubt there would be a sudden change in behaviour preventing us from seeing trends in case rates. It's not so much about how many people use them, but about how many people wish to avoid being on record as having covid (eg to avoid hassle of test and trace, or because they don't wish to isolate) People who want to do that have been able to use LFTs and not report them for many months now. The impact of more LFTs on positivity rates is an interesting one though - if people seek confirmatory PCRs they will nearly always be positive, which will push up the positivity rate.

A slightly surprising reduction in LFT results registered today. Normally you get about 90% of them in on same day. And it's been 45k, 40k previous two days, but 34k, I would've suspected more would've done it on NYE as more likely meeting up with people? Perhaps they did it later in the day?

For London, it does look like the 29th specimen date is going to be a 3rd peak (might just miss) this is presumably from christmas day mixing (the two previous peaks coming after weekends) and I think showing more how much indoor mixing with new people does drive cases, but then it falls back when people mix less - which is something we'd never seen with previous variants, although we'd always closed indoor unmasked mixing before this prevalence so it may not be omicron specific.

Although I'd speculate it's related to the infectiousness as people find out they have it over a much tighter time period after the mixing.

A slightly surprising reduction in LFT results registered today.

Appreciate it maybe area specific but it has been extremely difficult to get LFTs where I am, plus i suspect many people used up their supply for Christmas mixing- so if not replenished had none for NY.

I did of course wonder that Regulus, but you might've thought a lot of people would've saved some, but we don't know as per Jangly's point we just don't know how many are being used, which would be what answers that question.

@sirfred I suspect that Omicron may have a shorter and tighter incubation period than previous variants making it possible to see the peaks associated with socialising at weekends. There were certainly a few anecdotal examples of super spreader events when Omicron was just getting going where large numbers of people tested positive just 2-3 days after the event.
Though we are also in a rather odd level of restrictions currently where wfh is required, but hospitality open. We've not had that before and it could be making more infections at the weekend and fewer in the week, compared with previously.

29th could also be behaviour driven though - there was a peak before Christmas when people were testing to be clear for Christmas. You imagine once people were together 24-26th they didnt test. Then the 29th picks up people looking to be clear for New Year. I imagine the 1st might have less as well due to that.

@Quartz2208

29th could also be behaviour driven though - there was a peak before Christmas when people were testing to be clear for Christmas. You imagine once people were together 24-26th they didnt test. Then the 29th picks up people looking to be clear for New Year. I imagine the 1st might have less as well due to that.

I don't think people would be testing on the 29th to be clear for NYE. They certainly shouldn't be using LFTs two days before going somewhere! I think it's more likely infections caught at Christmas, plus possibly a bit of back to work testing as 29th was a working day for many.

Re why LFTs today are low - maybe those used or reported in the evening before going out missed the cut off?

Re why LFTs today are low - maybe those used or reported in the evening before going out missed the cut off?

I did actually start typing the same point wondering if people tested later on in the day on NYE than normal and hence they'll appear tomorrow.