Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Has anyone seen suggestions of when a peak would be?

Out of interest

Scientists have said mid January haven’t they?

Any 12-15 yo can now book, I got DS in last night. Officially it’s from Monday, no idea why it always sees to work this way!

This is worrying me. We’ve heard various dates of when the peak might be and various numeric projections about maximum hospitalisation and cases per day, but where are the graphs that show these projections? They are notable by their absence, but I’m sure they exist, so why aren’t we seeing them?

@SplitterBug

Thanks Firefliess. Do you happen to know where to find that weekly reinfection data? I looked in the most recent surveillance report and could only see data to 31 Oct.

Here you are www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveycharacteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19uk/latest#reinfections-with-covid-19-uk

@Nellodee

This is worrying me. We’ve heard various dates of when the peak might be and various numeric projections about maximum hospitalisation and cases per day, but where are the graphs that show these projections? They are notable by their absence, but I’m sure they exist, so why aren’t we seeing them?

Some recent modelling here: www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2021/modelling-potential-impact-omicron-england

"Under the most optimistic scenario (low immune escape of Omicron and high effectiveness of boosters), a wave of infection is projected which could lead to a peak of over 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 (95% CI: 139,000–198,000) hospitalisations and 24,700 (19,500–28,700) deaths between 1st December 2021 and 30th April 2022, if no additional control measures are implemented over and above the current ‘Plan B’ policy in England.

In this scenario, bringing in control measures early in 2022 which are equivalent in stringency to Step 2 of the roadmap — which involved restrictions on indoor hospitality, closure of some entertainment venues, and restrictions on gathering sizes — would be sufficient to substantially control this wave, reducing hospitalisations by 53,000 and deaths by 7,600.

The most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape and lower effectiveness of boosters) projects a wave of infection which is likely to lead to a peak in hospital admissions around twice as high as the peak seen in January 2021, if no additional control measures are taken, with 492,000 (418,000–537,000) hospitalisations and 74,800 (63,500–82,900) deaths.

In this scenario, the team estimates that stronger measures may be required to keep the peak number of hospital admissions below the January 2021 peak."

This is what I mean, no graphs. I’m also concerned that the worst case scenarios have higher levels of hospitalisation than we appear to have room in the hospitals.

It’s bad enough saying “hospitalisation twice as high as the peak” but how long are we expected to maintain that for?

Another lurker here.

On the topic of "peak". It looks to me as though the peak will affect different parts of the UK at different times, exactly as it did in earlier waves.
Maybe that's why they call them waves.
Where I live rates have been going down, so when it's over in London it will be ramping up elsewhere.

I take part in research with Queen Mary and they recently published some findings that suggest (with some caveats) that people with allergic conditions such as hay fever, rhinitis, and atopic eczema, may have a lower risk of Covid-19 infection, especially if they also have asthma.
www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/2021/smd/allergic-conditions-linked-to-lower-covid-19-infection-risk.html#

Hi cat.I was thinking about you the other day!

Does anyone know the situation in north west and can predict the peak for the north west?

@CatAlice that's so interesting. I have various atopic allergies and moderate asthma. My young DD was quite unwell with Covid in july. I never tested positive or showed any symptoms.

Hi Piggy love the NC!

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Where I live rates have been going down, so when it's over in London it will be ramping up elsewhere.

Wow at going down already, can you say whereabouts you are - are you in London or other city

That is very interesting Cat

Thanks for the info about booking 12-15.

@MarshaBradyo I worded that badly. What I mean is that Omicron doesn't appear to have reached us yet. Current case rate is 382 per 100K which while not exactly low, is down on week before. I expect it to shoot up any day now.

Sky News reporting that the cabinet are being briefed on the latest COVID data this afternoon.

I think the biggest problem though is that there isnt enough data to say where it is going and all strategies carry risk it just varies as to where the risk is. So a balanced approach is needed it is just hard to see where that balance should be.

I think at some point we will rollback to the steps we had to come out of lockdown this year. I dont think it will go back to the full lockdown and I think it is whether it is Step 2 (so April) or May (step 3) and how much it is mitigated by vaccine passports.

With the FFP2 masks there has been modelling done that shows that they very significantly reduce the risk of infection to the wearer if fitted properly www.pnas.org/content/118/49/e2110117118 for example.

In the mean time, in Gauteng:

twitter.com/lrossouw/status/1472137600181981186

There are usual caveats (e.g. people with mild symptoms are less likely to get tested before Christmas + many of Gauteng’s residents might have already left the province for Christmas holidays) but it is still remarkable how different this wave has been for South Africa.

How often do the FFP2 masks need to be changed?

The mayor of London declares a major incident due to Covid rates (Sky news tv)

@Wilma55

The mayor of London declares a major incident due to Covid rates (Sky news tv)

What does this actually mean?

Beeb article:

Major incidents have previously been called in response to the Grenfell Tower fire in June 2017 and the terror attacks at Westminster Bridge and London Bridge.
A major incident is any emergency which requires the implementation of special arrangements by one or all of the emergency services, the NHS or the local authority.
It means the emergency services and hospitals cannot guarantee their normal level of response

(He also declared one on 8Jan this year.)

still remarkable how different this wave has been for South Africa

Majority of their protection is from infection not vaccines, and even 7% re-infections is a lot better - as it cannot be unvaccinated driving London with the rates, it must be vaccinated. There's little reason to assume the higher rates of vaccine protection here will have the same result as there.

This is the same with "milder", re-infections in most respiratory illness is milder - it's why flu and RSV peak in young kids and subside until old and vulnerable, and probably why the Spanish flu was most deadly in the younger age groups as the older had protection from surviving the ~1890 outbreak.

I still think the pessimistic outcomes are less likely, but the assumptions based on the very different inputs in SA don't follow.