Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Quartz wonder if it is also people not testing as they don't want to isolate? by that I mean it's one thing testing before seeing at risk granny at Christmas, another testing before meeting up with your much lower risk mates at New Year. I appreciate this is deviating from the data but its the behavior behind data that fascinates me.

Ah didn't realise that re no LFTs in positivity rates, thanks

as we are getting close new thread ready to go here www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4441840-Data-Stats-and-Daily-Numbers-started-1st-January-2022 if copyright infringements don't see it removed first.

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas surely we should be seeing a lower proportion (which we are) given the huge numbers the number in would still be high. Without a direct comparison to cases you arent comparing like to like.

@Quartz2208

What am I not comparing like to like?

I've spent a year on here saying that the vaccines reduce the proportion of infections that lead to hospital admission and death, but if stupendously huge wave of infections are allowed to build up then that small proportion of a stupendously huge number will be a large number.

As we are soon to find out.

Hospitalisations now at 82% of New Year's Day 2021's figure

Here - the case numbers are different though @IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas so the 82% is in fact not comparing like for like.

That 82% overall masks a very mixed regional picture - ignoring the more fundamental issues around just comparing two data points and the single geography. But to play along 29th Dec 2021 percentage difference by NHS region in England

It's quite clear that London cases have peaked now. Which is great

How can we draw that conclusion ?

@FrazzledCareerWoman

It's quite clear that London cases have peaked now. Which is great

Not sure I'd go with quite clear what with the festive break, schools closed and the usual London Xmas exodus.

Well, this is all of London, but if you look at the boroughs that have had the highest case rates, it's even more obvious

@Regulus okay yes good point... trying to be optimistic! In my local area rates have been falling steadily from a very high level for over a week now

Falling sharply here too, London, but hard to know what will happen in next week or so

Re general trends and other factors aside, what I don't get in bald terms is why people out there can't understand that a small percentage of a huge number - will be a large number.

God knows I barely passed my maths o level but that isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

I'm here to understand more.

what I don't get in bald terms is why people out there can't understand that a small percentage of a huge number - will be a large number

I don't think many at all fail to understand that, it's a mischaracterisation of the opposition to restrictions, it's the sort of straw man rhetoric common online. The disagreement is that the harm caused by restrictions is worth the benefit of spreading out that "big number" over a longer period. Even overshoot is significantly less relevant when omicron requires over 90% infection/new vaccine before any sort of herd immunity arrives.

It may seem callous, but the people do understand the big number, they do understand it will cause deaths - but they also understand that the NHS budget cuts cause deaths, that car policy causes deaths, that smoking and lack of exercise cause deaths, lots of things cause deaths, the balance is that society deems them acceptable, covid is not special.

Latest London rate graphs on the new thread.

@Quartz2208

Hospitalisations now at 82% of New Year's Day 2021's figure

Here - the case numbers are different though @IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas so the 82% is in fact not comparing like for like.

Cases don't matter, do they?

Hospital metrics are the ones that matter.

@sirfredfredgeorge why do you not believe the scientists when they say clearly restrictions reduce deaths?

There is a difference between case numbers not mattering and the proportion of cases that lead to hospitalisations, the latter definitely matters. I agree that a small percentage of a huge number is at the very least a concern.

I am not saying that it isnt a concern - just that without that piece of the puzzle you cant properly compare.

And no one on this thread (given it is a data one) has said that cases don't matter because they do - they are independent variable - the cause that effects the hospital rate.

Also analysis of pcrs allows labs to pick up new variants. Without that we wont have any idea of there is a new variant until it has already spread widely.

Sorry posted on wrong thread.

@Quartz2208

There is a difference between case numbers not mattering and the proportion of cases that lead to hospitalisations, the latter definitely matters. I agree that a small percentage of a huge number is at the very least a concern.

I am not saying that it isnt a concern - just that without that piece of the puzzle you cant properly compare.

And no one on this thread (given it is a data one) has said that cases don't matter because they do - they are independent variable - the cause that effects the hospital rate.

If we know we're at 82% of the admissions of the 1st of January 2021 why do we need to know the proportion of cases that become hospital admissions?

How does it affect the comparison of hospital admissions?

I'm really not following you.

Fair enough @IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas fair enough.