Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

MarshaBradyo

Yes, here is Lilico’s twitter account:

twitter.com/andrew_lilico/with_replies

I cannot find the post re: Dec 27 but one of his latest tweets compares dynamics in UK and SA.

It's interesting that delta doesn't drop as the omicron rises - I wonder what happens if you get them both? I think I've heard it's possible?

This is a bit concerning.

aargh no no no ,please no cryptic/sarcastic comments that thickos like me don't understand .

Netherlands going into 'tight lockdown':

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59713503

@herecomesthsun

It's interesting that delta doesn't drop as the omicron rises - I wonder what happens if you get them both? I think I've heard it's possible?

In reality most people are probably infected with a mix of slightly genetically different coronavirus particles

Typically the better variant will outcompete the other - I suspect if you did happen be infected with both, omicron will make short work of delta

The fear is not specifically for the person infected, but that you could potentially be a host to a "recombiant event" which is where the two variants manage to swap genetic material which leads to a new variant which has gain a further advantage. This is based on several coindidental events that are super unlikely though.

Today, there are 90,000 cases of covid reported.

10,000 of those are supposedly Omicron.

But if that is the case, most of the rise is still Delta. Is that right? It doesn't seem to me this has been explained or even noticed, with most commentators assumed the rise was due to Omicron. I certainly assumed that until I read otherwise. Do you know what that's all about?

Netherlands going into 'tight lockdown'

There hospitals were of course at much closer to capacity, already over 1/2 their Alpha peak I believe, so there's less headroom to play with.

Denmark, only at closing theatres, cinemas, museums, zoos etc. stage, although no alcohol after 10pm and nightclubs/pubs close at 11. Is that local aversion to restrictions? No hint of a peak in their cases, although overall they are slower than London.

vera99 no, the 10,000 is a number which shouldn't be being reported, that is the number of sequenced cases to date, but it reflects ones that were swabbed a week or more ago, omicron is almost certainly well over half those 90,000 cases.

I suspect if you did happen be infected with both, omicron will make short work of delta

This assumes the advantage comes from replication speed - which is Delta's advantage to others - have we actually had that confirmed?

today's England spec date graphic

and the / our London scenario - which is looking a little less likely

@sirfredfredgeorge many thanks very clear.

There was an article in the guardian about omicron replicating 70 times faster in bronchial tissue ( which I think makes it easier to spread by coughing) but slower in the lung tissue itself (so no greater severity, I think). It wasn’t peer reviewed yet, if I recall.

Belated thanks for new thread

@Puzzledandpissedoff

90,418 cases today, down on yesterday, so clearly peaked

Isn't it more likely that, with Christmas coming up, fewer people are testing?

This. Some because they don’t want to test so close to Christmas. Plus a lot of schools were asking for LFTs daily and have finished for the Christmas break so way less asymptomatic tests will be done.

Thanks boys3.

I'd like to think that London scenario may be looking slightly less likely, but in my part of East London getting hold of LFTs is like looking for hens teeth. I have had a code since Tuesday but cannot find any pharmacist with stock anywhere. Applied for postal packet Thursday which has not yet been despatched. Relative who worked with confirmed Omicron colleague unable to book PCR online so requested postal PCR Tuesday which arrived Friday.

If you can't get hold of tests then the positives aren't going to be found.

For those asking for dates of peaks. From Spi-m.

Beware of internet pundits.

a) omicron peaked on 8th Dec in Denmark
b) an up to date graph

Denmark have pretty graphs but the last three or four days is always subject to updates

This years Royal Institution Christmas Lectures are by Jonathan Van-Tam.

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

This years Royal Institution Christmas Lectures are by Jonathan Van-Tam.

Happy dance

I don’t quite get the Netherlands lockdown. Cases and hospital admissions were dropping , their close links to South Africa meant they had omni slightly earlier so it’s not as if this is a move to keep it out. Why now ?

@Notmulan

I don’t quite get the Netherlands lockdown. Cases and hospital admissions were dropping , their close links to South Africa meant they had omni slightly earlier so it’s not as if this is a move to keep it out. Why now ?

What makes you think cases were dropping?

Some pundit on the internet who does not understand how Denmark does its stats?