Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

The BBC report "Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron"

That's bad news isn't it? and negates the "50% milder" omicron doesn't it? (92% / 96% of unboosted AZ / Pfizer against delta) combine the 50% and 80% and you're still below the previous rates - implying we'll get vaccinated in hospital at higher rates than during the delta wave?

Of course, it's a model with lots of uncertainty, and doesn't appear to be match aactual data in the areas yet.

Have we had this one yet?

(Apologies I am behind on the thread.)

Hospital Admissions For Covid vs Covid not being the primary cause of admission.

And a modelling versus actual

Here's the graphics from Prof Pagel

Superb news

As someone who's quite vulnerable (advised to shield etc), I am waiting just a bit till I'm sure this would be available for me before celebrating.

But I think this could be the piece falling into place before I can go back to work part time in the New Year

"The UK has approved Pfizer’s Covid-19 pill for patients over the age of 18 years who have mild to moderate infection and are at high risk of their illness worsening, Reuters reports.

The approval comes as the country scrambles to build its defences amid a record hit a daily record of new Covid cases on Thursday.

Based on data, the pill, Paxlovid, is most effective when taken during the early stages of Covid, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) said on Friday, recommending that the drug be used within five days of the onset of symptoms.

Pfizer this month said Paxlovid showed near 90% efficacy in preventing hospitalisations and deaths in high-risk patients, and recent lab data suggests the drug retains its effectiveness against the fast spreading Omicron variant.

“We now have a further antiviral medicine for the treatment of Covid-19 that can be taken by mouth rather than administered intravenously. This means it can be administered outside a hospital setting,” MHRA chief June Raine said in a statement."

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

And a modelling versus actual

This looks a bit concerning.

@herecomesthsun looks good!

Can anyone find recent data on the success of the app?

@herecomesthsun That's great news.

On the subject of hospital acquired covid, a good analysis of how and why it matters with some clever graphs.

twitter.com/doctimcook/status/1476256967274471431

Really good news on the Pfizer pill. I think it might turn out to be more of a game changer than this first generation of vaccines.

@catalice, somewhat dubious when it starts with:
those admitted ‘while infected’ (likely same as community rate ≈2-3% cases)
The numbers for the 7 days before Christmas was 1 in 25 (4%, and that's 7 days, a covid admission is for a 15 day period so that's up to double that rate, the 2-3% must be wrong for community rate - however I also don't agree that the rate 'while infected' is the same as the community rate as the likelihood of being admitted is not averaged over the community

The staff infection angle also is dubious as we know staff absences are below the community rate (ie staff are less likely to have covid than non staff)

I think the vaccines have been a game changer, though. Our death rates are pretty low, given the number of infections in the past month or so (However, we will have to wait and see how that holds up against the current infection rate. The Radio 4 news mentioned a possible current rate of 1 in 11 people infected according to ONS).

I am wondering whether the benefits of the vaccine and paxlovid are cumulative, against death and serious illness. If we are looking at reductions of 90% on top of the vaccine reductions, that is even more encouraging.

someone up thread mentioned rates in the older age bands in London.

Using the most recent full age file from the dashboard these are the regional rates by age band all shown together in the week to 25th December.

As that earlier poster highlighted 690 per 100,000 in the age 90+ group. No other region close to that at the moment.

Similar gaps in most of the older age bands.

This is a single week so following progression for each region's age band rates over the past four weeks; ie starting with the seven days to 4th December

East Midlands and West Midlands

London and South East

North East and North West

South West and East of England a somewhat random pairing, but running out of regions

Yorkshire and Humber

@Lalalablahblahblah

That Pfizer pill definitely sounds look good news. The problem is though the unpredictability of who will be likely to suffer severe covid. It is obviously more likely in certain groups but it isn't always obvious. Anecdotally my step sister was previously shielding due to immune suppressive meds for RA so when she caught covid last December pre vaccines we were very worried about her. But she escaped relatively lightly (she was bed bound for a week and very unwell but not dangerously so) but it was her very fit, gym loving husband aged 39 who ended up in hospital for 3 weeks with a stint in intensive care. Nobody would have predicted that.

Also, it relies on the continued availability of tests. People will have to know early on if they actually have covid or not.

Also, it relies on the continued availability of tests. People will have to know early on if they actually have covid or not

It's a strong reason for changing the criteria for PCR testing like other countries to focus on the more vulnerable, of course that would be a big change to carry off in this country, where identifying every possible case has great importance politically.

a cross-section of London Borough rates in the over 60 age bands for that most recent week. Camden most preferable for nonagenarians and beyond; Wandsworth best avoided.

[quote CatAlice]@herecomesthsun That's great news.

On the subject of hospital acquired covid, a good analysis of how and why it matters with some clever graphs.

twitter.com/doctimcook/status/1476256967274471431[/quote]
Thanks for that link, really clear and helpful explanations.

So do we presume somewhere the NHS will have data on how many HAIs are presumed/suspected etc?

Also, what do we think of his (the NHS's?) assumption that the rate of incidental patients swabbing on admission will only equal the community rate? That might not be true, IMHO, because

• hitherto undiagnosed covid has exacerbated their presenting condition - v possible from what I read

• those admitted are more likely to catch covid - not sure of the likelihood of that?

I wonder what the data will be like in a couple of weeks once the festive mixing has had chance to fully that effect

@festivesprinkles

I wonder what the data will be like in a couple of weeks once the festive mixing has had chance to fully that effect

The case numbers will likely look the same - unless they find some more testing capacity. Healthcare data, however...