Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Hospitalisations now at 82% of New Year's Day 2021's figure:

(Which is pretty stunning for a variant none of us had heard of a few weeks ago.)

@containsnuts

Question. Why did they cut the isolation time in response to Omicron while there was still Delta in circulation? Could this compromise the elimination of Delta as infectious people with this strain are coming out of isolation too early and continuing to spread (albeit to a lesser extent?).

It was primarily done to prevent the country grinding to a halt from millions of people isolating at the same time.

Yes it could if it gives Delta an advantage.

I think cutting isolation has less to do with Omicron being different and more to do with a) widespread availability and use of LFTs meaning it's possible to see whether someone is likely still infectious after 7 days or not and b) the impact of a further 3 days isolation on the economy with staff shortages across many sectors. There's potentially also a benefit in encouraging people to get tested (as the impact of finding out you're positive isn't so off-putting).

The shorter generation time with Omicron is largely a different issue as it's primarily due to a shorter incubation period (as you're most infections just before and just after your first symptoms, so that's when most spread happens) It may also have a shorter duration on average (as it's milder).

Also of course, the harm on people from isolating, 10 days inactivity reduces VO2max 10%, a 10% reduction in VO2max is directly correlated with negative health outcomes.

Of course as soon as you're active again, most people will return to fitness, but not all, harming the health of individuals has to be for public benefit, with omicron so common in the community and a case detection rate picking up maybe half, there really is very limited value in causing the harm in those where it is detected when there's so many out where it's not.

Isolation doesn't just harm the economy, it harms health too.

Yes I agree with harm due to isolating - DS fitness has taken a huge hit each time he has been asked to self isolate.

Most countries are now reducing it - to between 5 to 7 days it seems a fairly common decision to make.

I think the threat to critical infrastructure as well by isolating is a pretty huge threat as well. Having just returned from the US it is very much the concern over there. Due to differences in healthcare (and I guess vaccines) hospitalisations arent really focused on (indeed I think the view is they can cope). But the major concern is the effect it will have on infrastructure and delays.

And if you think we have testing issues - the queues for tests there are insane

Fred, do you have a link for

Also of course, the harm on people from isolating, 10 days inactivity reduces VO2max 10% ?

On another thread a reliable poster quotes a medical acquaintance saying that reverse isolation may have to start in hospitals, ie isolating the relatively few who DON'T have covid....

Of course isolation is negative but the one benefit was that people were prevented from spreading it. Seems problematic to isolate people for 7 days just for them to go out and spread it on day 8. In a school, for example, I would have thought it better for one person to be off for 10 days rather than the whole class domino isolating for 7 days each (appreciate it's not that simple but you get my point hopefully)

@Firefliess although am seeing some experts saying with omicron you're most infectious not before, but just after, symptoms appear?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Also of course, the harm on people from isolating, 10 days inactivity reduces VO2max 10%, a 10% reduction in VO2max is directly correlated with negative health outcomes.

Of course as soon as you're active again, most people will return to fitness, but not all, harming the health of individuals has to be for public benefit, with omicron so common in the community and a case detection rate picking up maybe half, there really is very limited value in causing the harm in those where it is detected when there's so many out where it's not.

Isolation doesn't just harm the economy, it harms health too.

Yet another one for the "It's better to keep cases low than have to do the damaging things that you have to do if you don't keep cases low " column.

Being told not to leave the house for several months was very bad for my dad. He's not really regained full fitness, and he used to be a rambler and do things like walk from Farnham in Surrey to Winchester in Hampshire.

@Quartz2208

Yes I agree with harm due to isolating - DS fitness has taken a huge hit each time he has been asked to self isolate.

Most countries are now reducing it - to between 5 to 7 days it seems a fairly common decision to make.

I think the threat to critical infrastructure as well by isolating is a pretty huge threat as well. Having just returned from the US it is very much the concern over there. Due to differences in healthcare (and I guess vaccines) hospitalisations arent really focused on (indeed I think the view is they can cope). But the major concern is the effect it will have on infrastructure and delays.

And if you think we have testing issues - the queues for tests there are insane

I agree it’s a good decision

And maybe to 5

With the down to 5 - in the US for example for days 5 to 10 you should be wearing a mask EVERYWHERE that you have contact with people and social distance. And that includes I think in the household and outside.

Same for removing isolation of close contacts - you dont have to isolate but wear a mask for the 10 days if around people (including the household) and testing on day 5.

It was an interesting experience going on holiday actually over Christmas at this time to the US and see a different perspective. They have over 2s wearing masks and no exemptions. DS (who is 9) got used to it fairly quickly

The only benefit from the current lack of availability of LFTs and PCRs is that we'll soon see what happens when there's limited testing. If the impact is minimal perhapse we can do away with testing except in special circumstances such as hospitals or international travel?

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

Hospitalisations now at 82% of New Year's Day 2021's figure:

(Which is pretty stunning for a variant none of us had heard of a few weeks ago.)

Can I ask where you are getting your figures from - apologies if i've missed a link.

Dashboard figures don't support this 82%:-

29/12/21 - 11,918 in hospital
01/01/21 - 26,389 in hospital

Our trust had 42 positive patients yesterday compared to 300 in December 2020. I accept we are in Kent close to the epicentre of the alpha wave.

So this is why you can't get LFTs at the moment - the distribution company's closed for Christmas....

twitter.com/ankurb/status/1476892002646122497?s=21

It's worth reminding/noting at this point that the US moving to 5 days isn't just an arbitrary get out of jail card. There are pretty strict rules around mask wearing upon 'release', for example, which I can't see our government doing.

Oops sorry just seen quartz' post!

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway the graph and figure nutnuts quoted is on Twitter from the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group

Proper masks at that too.

They are much less anti mask over there.

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway

The England hospital admissions chart is from the government's coronavirus dashboard, but the comparison red lines were drawn by someone on Twitter.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

@Neurodiversitydoctor

Our trust had 42 positive patients yesterday compared to 300 in December 2020. I accept we are in Kent close to the epicentre of the alpha wave.

With the vaccines doing 3/4 of the work and a milder variant we should have a lot less people being admitted to hospital shouldn't we?

Do you know how many you had when Aloha had been here about 5 weeks like Omicron has? (End of October)

Am I being misled? Everyone keeps saying we don't have stats on what inpatients are being treated for..... but we do:www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Under primary diagnosis supplement - for example: London admissions with/for Covid - 2541 total, of which 1630 are primarily FOR covid.

Yes piggywaspushed I think they are less anti masks. We went to Disney World and everyone had to wear them inside and there were always people reminding you to do so and nicely prompting if you forgot. It did become second nature and you do quite easily get used to it. DS at the end said if needed he could wear in a classroom. Outdoors they arent needed though (which was good) so it was easy to follow.

Quite a few people wore them outside as well.

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas surely we should be seeing a lower proportion (which we are) given the huge numbers the number in would still be high. Without a direct comparison to cases you arent comparing like to like.

I can find out

[quote IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas]@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway

The England hospital admissions chart is from the government's coronavirus dashboard, but the comparison red lines were drawn by someone on Twitter.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England[/quote]
Thanks IWannaWish, for some reason the graph didn't show for me in your original post.

So it's the admissions number being quoted, not the number in hospital which is a much much lower percentage.