Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th December

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Best wishes for the festive season to all contributors and lurkers

The preference for this thread is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.
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Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
UKHSA Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefing
UKHSA Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/guidance/monitoring-reports-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
UKHSA Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Admissions now at levels half of what was seen at January peak - whether that's good or bad at this stage I don't know .

Also, what do we think of his (the NHS's?) assumption that the rate of incidental patients swabbing on admission will only equal the community rate? That might not be true, IMHO, because

For me it will massively understate the community rate, those needing hospital care will be significantly less likely than average to be infected - other than in the "everyone else is locked down, it's running rampant in care homes" of 2020.

At the moment looking at boys age numbers for infections, we know that the hospitalisation for any reasons are pretty much the opposite of the highest community rates. And I would suggest the individuals needing more hospital care would be less likely to be positive even in those age groups - pregnant women not spending a lot of time in nightclubs etc.

To clarify, when I wrote

• those admitted are more likely to catch covid - not sure of the likelihood of that?

I meant the profile of those admitted (elderly etc) may also mean they're more likely to be infected with covid.
But am not sure about this?

I think I read something about exponential growth having stopped now, data-types is this the case?

Cross post Fred

Interesting data about the efficiency of nasal and throat/saliva swabs being very different with Delta and Omicron.
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.22.21268246v1

Nasal swabs best for Delta and throat swabs best for Omicron.

@containsnuts

Admissions now at levels half of what was seen at January peak - whether that's good or bad at this stage I don't know .

but numbers in hospital and in ICU much lower

Cases
189,846 - 31st December 2021
55,892 - 31st December 2020

Hospital admissions
1,915 - 27th December 2021
2,871 - 27th December 2020

in hospital (combined)
11,918 - 29th December 2021
25,549 - 29th December 2020

Patients in ICU
868 - 29th December 2021
1,939 - 29th December 2020

Deaths within 28 days
203 - 31st December 2021
964 - 31st December 2020

Wow, when you see the numbers like that it really is quite stark!

@ILookAtTheFloor

I think I read something about exponential growth having stopped now, data-types is this the case?

No. Not likely.

It's Christmas and New Year and we've maxed out the testing system, so there are strong credibility issues with drawing any firm conclusions from the current numbers.

Omicron has just taken over so this is the very beginning of the wave as it's just getting into its stride comparable with February 2020, or October 2020.

Guess which area has the lowest positivity (still 11% though!)?

twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1476963451897528327?s=21

Just catching up on this thread today.

Re hospital admissions - I agree with @sirfred that you'd expect them to be a lot less likely than the average person in the community to have covid. Partly as you say because rates among the older age groups are a lot lower. But also because, as I think I was saying previously, all planned hospital admissions are asked to isolate for a week before, and tested before admission and not admitted if they're positive. So it's really only those admitted in an emergency, plus a small number who are incubating it on admission (despite isolation) who would be positive.

Re the new Pfizer drug. That's good news it's been approved. It does indeed sound like a real game changer for many people. But does anyone know when you UK is actually going to have a decent supply of it? All I've heard are very vague statements about "in 2022" I've also heard that it's not an easy drug to manufacture at scale quickly.

[quote JanglyBeads]Guess which area has the lowest positivity (still 11% though!)?

twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1476963451897528327?s=21[/quote]
Well...I wasn't expecting that.

But does anyone know when you UK is actually going to have a decent supply of it?

Reports were it was being stockpiled in advance, and www.gov.uk/government/news/uks-most-vulnerable-people-to-receive-life-saving-covid-19-treatments-in-the-community says "have secured" 730,000 courses, not completely clear the time-period.

@containsnuts

Admissions now at levels half of what was seen at January peak - whether that's good or bad at this stage I don't know .

Omicron's done that in about a month in a highly vaccinated population.

So I would say that's bad.

It took Alpha longer than a month and we were unvaccinated then.

[quote JanglyBeads]Guess which area has the lowest positivity (still 11% though!)?

twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1476963451897528327?s=21[/quote]
Torridge people are testing more than anywhere else?!

@sirfredfredgeorge

But does anyone know when you UK is actually going to have a decent supply of it?

Reports were it was being stockpiled in advance, and www.gov.uk/government/news/uks-most-vulnerable-people-to-receive-life-saving-covid-19-treatments-in-the-community says "have secured" 730,000 courses, not completely clear the time-period.

That's not the Pfizer one I'm that article though. That's Molnupiravir, which seems to have some benefit but a lot less than the Pfizer one (a 30% reduction in hospitalisation with Molnupiravir, compared with 89% for the Pfizer one) The vagueness about when we might get any and relative slowness to approve it in the UK (compared with the US) makes me think we're well down the queue for the Pfizer one

*Omicron's done that in about a month in a highly vaccinated population.

So I would say that's bad*

But it depends how much of it is coincidental, we know that the ratio of admissions to in-patients are lower than in the alpha wave, this implies either that those presenting at hospital are much less ill so spend considerably less time in hospital, or they're more incidental - the actual levels of infection in the community are much higher than during the alpha wave. Because we don't know the exact numbers or the nature of admissions, I think focusing on in patient demand is a better comparison between the waves.

That's not the Pfizer one I'm that article though

250,000 Pfizer,480,000 molnuprivar were the numbers weren't they?

@festivesprinkles

I wonder what the data will be like in a couple of weeks once the festive mixing has had chance to fully that effect

Well Omicron has only just taken over so hospitalisations are just getting going and deaths haven't really kicked in yet.

The red ring on the Warwick scenarios is Professor Christina Pagel's guess at where we likely are.

It looks as if you can't escape Omicron by going to the remote Antarctic!

(Sorry, that report doesn't say it's Omicron, just Covid.)

@sirfredfredgeorge

That's not the Pfizer one I'm that article though

250,000 Pfizer,480,000 molnuprivar were the numbers weren't they?

No, the 250,000 appears to be something else again called Ronapreve. The Pfizer one's called Paxlovid.

[quote JanglyBeads]Guess which area has the lowest positivity (still 11% though!)?

twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1476963451897528327?s=21[/quote]
Interesting! Indicating Delta confers good short term immunity? Their numbers were very high in Nov through to early Dec weren't they, as were all of north and west Devon? Comparatively very much lower now.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Cases 189,846 - 31st December 2021 55,892 - 31st December 2020

Hospital admissions
1,915 - 27th December 2021
2,871 - 27th December 2020

in hospital (combined)
11,918 - 29th December 2021
25,549 - 29th December 2020

Patients in ICU
868 - 29th December 2021
1,939 - 29th December 2020

Deaths within 28 days
203 - 31st December 2021
964 - 31st December 2020

Thanks for posting this. Very interesting. I'm just trying to recall where we were with RATs/LFTs and PCRs this time last year and if we were detecting volume of overall cases accurately.