Independent sage: circuit breaker lockdown needed now

[XmasGoose]

I see Independent Sage have said that an immediate circuit breaker lockdown is needed to protect the NHS.

This would involve a total ban on household mixing, all bars, restaurants and indoor venues closing and schools shutting early for Christmas.

Is this needed now to protect the NHS and save lives? Personally I wouldn’t comply with another lockdown.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1471160024005324804?s=21

Did any nightingale’s actually ever get used???

@BluebellsGreenbells

I love the ‘I’m not changing my plans brigade’

People here were locked up, fined and had criminal records for breaking Covid laws.

If there’s a chance of either I think you’d comply.

I'll just make surecI invite a senior politician along. Won't have a problem then.

They are much less densely populated than us

Not in the cities they aren't. Besides I'm not sure it makes a massive difference, US states that are less densely populated have had huge issues. I'm in ROI and our least densely populated county has consistently had the highest rates.

We Brits are not great at socially distancing

If you'd told me in 2019 that the Brits would have complied to the degree they did in the first lockdown and not seen their family and friends for months at a time, I wouldn't have believed you. You just can't extrapolate.

The media invested a huge amount in telling everyone that the Swedish strategy was 'wrong', but looking at the figures almost two years in, it's very hard to conclude that strict lockdowns achieved much in the medium term. The problem is that having born the absolutely immense costs of multiple lockdowns, we can't let ourselves contemplate that they weren't totally worth it.

[quote Trixiefirecracker]@Suranjeep I’m not sure where you are but this was imposed on us and most people I saw in queues where not distancing, quite the opposite, nor wearing masks. They were up in arms about that too.[/quote]
Masks wernt required at that point and still aren’t outside.

I’m not saying it’s wrong but I
Am saying you can’t really compare and that it’s definitely too early to be drawing any conclusions about who has ‘done better’ out of this shit show. We are nowhere near that far forward yet.

Lockdown buys time for boosters to be given and to take effect and for teens and (hopefully) children to be vaccinated.

@Trixiefirecracker

Did any nightingale’s actually ever get used???

Our local one has been used as a vaccination centre since January.

@Suranjeep I’m not sure what your point is, or your timeframe?

I'm no demographer, but I've seen some figures indicating that Stockholm's population density is around the same as London's. If wikipedia is to be believed, Malmo's is higher than Greater Manchester.

Sweden's population density as a whole is much lower than ours, but that's because they have vast expanses where very few people live. If you look at the areas where the bulk of the population are actually to be found, not so much.

@Trixiefirecracker

The problem is, who are going to staff these places that you are desperate to keep open? Who will run the trains that you need to get to visit your families? Who will keep the schools open when all the teachers are off sick? Who will do your hair and nails I know it’s highly inconvenient for you all but at the rate we are going everyone will be isolating anyway with omicron.

I think this is one of the reasons why we will see the isolation period significantly reduced (or even removed entirely) fairly soon.

Perhaps replaced by a "stay at home whilst you have symptoms" bit of guidance. Otherwise the requirement to isolate ends up being as much of a problem as covid itself.

@JanglyBeads

Lockdown buys time for boosters to be given and to take effect and for teens and (hopefully) children to be vaccinated.

It’s not teens and children causing the pressures on the NHS so buying time to vaccinate them won’t really improve anything.

@VikingOnTheFridge but if, within those cities, a much higher compliance is happening with no mass gatherings or groups meeting of over 50, snd other long term mitigation’s. You don’t think that is impactful? While we have rugby, football, racing, festivals, gigs, concerts, pantos, theatre etc etc? Going on as normal with no social distancing? Besides, our population is not
Limited solely to cities. We are much more densely packed in
Elsewhere. I live in the lakes and can’t tell you how busy it’s been here, we are all stuck here. Holidaying on a tiny island.

Unfortunately work beckons but just would like to say it’s been a very interesting thread and have enjoyed hearing different views.

I think this is one of the reasons why we will see the isolation period significantly reduced (or even removed entirely) fairly soon.

I hope this is a potential solution to that problem, which is coming up

[quote Trixiefirecracker]@VikingOnTheFridge but if, within those cities, a much higher compliance is happening with no mass gatherings or groups meeting of over 50, snd other long term mitigation’s. You don’t think that is impactful? While we have rugby, football, racing, festivals, gigs, concerts, pantos, theatre etc etc? Going on as normal with no social distancing? Besides, our population is not
Limited solely to cities. We are much more densely packed in
Elsewhere. I live in the lakes and can’t tell you how busy it’s been here, we are all stuck here. Holidaying on a tiny island.[/quote]
I'm solely referencing the population density point, which is why I didn't offer a view on the other things you mention. If population density is worth mentioning, it's worth mentioning with accurate information. In the areas where the vast majority are to be found, the UK is not significantly more densely populated than Sweden, not remotely.

Also, the UK is an overwhelmingly urban population. As is Sweden. The fact that there are a smattering of rural areas with lots of people crammed into small areas doesn't affect the point that Sweden has a comparatively low national population density because they have much more land than us where barely anyone lives.

The problem is that having born the absolutely immense costs of multiple lockdowns, we can't let ourselves contemplate that they weren't totally worth it

I believe that's a very valid point, Keating; the price has been so massive that folk just can't countenance that it may not have been effective

Ditto the huge faith placed in the vaccines, which certainly have a valuable role but were never going to be the magic bullet some hoped
So now we're on to ever-increasing scare stories to increase take-up - oh and antivirals, some of which will no doubt also be okay'ed at a rate of knots, though licenced only for "emergency use"

And before the antivaxxer/conspiracy theory posts start flying, I'm another who's jabbed - but I feel a little more caution's needed about just what we're doing here

Yes, I think there are probably elements of that in there. It's psychologically much more comfortable to believe that suffering has a purpose. The same with some of the people who believe/d that if we just stuck to the rules we could get it under control. Because the alternative is frightening.

@Waxonwaxoff0

Independent Sage can get fucked.

Lockdowns are what you have to have when your covid strategy is inadequate.

It's not that lockdown harms are "worth it"

It's that there's no other choice left.

Omicron is not a scare story

Removing the obligation to self isolate with a variant that can reinfect every one of us would be extremely unwise.

@MrsWarleggan

I'm fed up of being told to "Save The NHS". it's not my responsibility to "Save The NHS". It's our governments responsibility to "Save it" and not criminally under fund it for the past 2 decades.

It made me laugh at the start of the pandemic when they were encouraging retired NHS workers to come back. Here's a thing, try not taking them for granted and treating them like shit and they may not have left/retired in the first bloody place.

Absolutely! 👏👏👏👏

Oh that's the next thing is it?

@RoobyMyrtle

If the NHS was better funded there would be less chance of it being overwhelmed.

Well yes, but then people would have to pay higher taxes and they wouldn't like that.

@VikingOnTheFridge this is helpful in a density comparison argument. medium.com/pragmapolitic/do-the-uks-cities-hide-sweden-s-3x-greater-spread-3bca832443bf