Independent sage: circuit breaker lockdown needed now

[XmasGoose]

I see Independent Sage have said that an immediate circuit breaker lockdown is needed to protect the NHS.

This would involve a total ban on household mixing, all bars, restaurants and indoor venues closing and schools shutting early for Christmas.

Is this needed now to protect the NHS and save lives? Personally I wouldn’t comply with another lockdown.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1471160024005324804?s=21

@IWannaWishYouANutNutsChristmas

When certain quarters are exerting themselves to discretion the modellers you know lockdown (or something like it) is near.

What are you referring to?

The Spectator?

I guess so didn’t read back…

@madroid

JUST STOP IT BOTH OF YOU. *@Starcup* *@ollyollyoxenfree*

Go to your rooms and don't come out until you can think of something nice to say.

😂😂😂

Good news today is that there’s a slight drop in reported cases (tests) yesterday.

@herecomesthsun

I skimmed it; along the lines that SAGE aren't modelling scenarios in which omicron isn't a major disaster and that this is bias.

It was more than that.

Not only don’t they model “likely” scenarios, but they also don’t offer insight into the likelihood of the disaster scenarios versus non-disaster.

It’s no surprise then that they feed panic into the public, because ministers themselves are genuinely panicked.

And that bad because in all the panic, no one is think to ask “but how likely is this?”. That is the very definition of group think.

@puppeteer

Good news today is that there’s a slight drop in reported cases (tests) yesterday.

It's the weekend.

Case reports are always lower at the weekends. Wait until you see the numbers on Monday.

The important measure Is the week on week change. We have an increase of 44.4% in case numbers compared to the previous 7 days.

The news from SA is positive. Hospitalisations 91% down on Delta. It's a milder variant. We have lots vaxxed/boosted & lots of previous Covid exposure in this country as a consequence of opening up in July.

Also, sad to say but lots (most?) of the Covid vulnerable are already dead so certainly won't be needing hospital again. We don't need lockdown & we should be abolishing isolation ASAP.

@MummyPop00

The news from SA is positive. Hospitalisations 91% down on Delta. It's a milder variant. We have lots vaxxed/boosted & lots of previous Covid exposure in this country as a consequence of opening up in July.

Also, sad to say but lots (most?) of the Covid vulnerable are already dead so certainly won't be needing hospital again. We don't need lockdown & we should be abolishing isolation ASAP.

"Sad to say"? most of the CEV aren't dead x

CEV can take their own chances, they are free to mingle or not, that’s their choice, just as it is with the unvaxxed to get jabbed or not.

From what i understand about triage, if happens BEFORE you get an icu bed. Once you're in that icu bed it's yours until you recover or don't. If you have an eighty year old who had turned the corner and is likely to come out off icu in another 2 days, they'll get that 2 days, regardless of there is a thirty year old needing the same bed. No free beds, tough. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure i read this when the subject came up right back at the start when we were looking at Italy and China and wondering how bad it would get here (a problem we avoided by discharging positive patients to care homes and not bringing during people to the hospital in the first place).

Some of those cev are your surgeons, teachers and fire fighters. Some are grandchildren. Many have cooker at school. All are human beings.

Children at school!

@MummyPop00

CEV can take their own chances, they are free to mingle or not, that’s their choice, just as it is with the unvaxxed to get jabbed or not.

Are you utterly clueless??

My DH is CEV, he has heart failure. We are all as careful as we can be but DS14 has to go to school and DD19 is at Uni and is home for Xmas.

On Wednesday DS tested positive for Covid at school. Now we are trying to isolate DS as much as possible and taking daily LFTs.

I get that you don't give a shiny shit and think my DH is expendable but funnily enough we as his family don't feel that way.

And don't crawl away thinking that's he's some weakling at deaths door. He has survived 26 years with heart failure, he takes his many daily meds and puts up with the occasionally heart surgeries and he carries as normally as most people. You would never know his condition unless he told you.

@MummyPop00

CEV can take their own chances, they are free to mingle or not, that’s their choice, just as it is with the unvaxxed to get jabbed or not.

And of the hospital beds and A and E and ICU are chock a block with the CEV and the unvaccinated, then you can take your own chances without modern medical care.

Also, if the emergency services are full of people ill with covid, you can take your chances without police, fire services, ambulance, fuel or food.

I think this is the issue.

I’m sorry but an indefinite hold on normal life switching things on & off is not sustainable. Maybe the CEV who are exposed need to reconsider that exposure?

Also, Covid has been doing the rounds since freedom day, so what have the CEV who have survived this far been doing?

@Nellodee

From what i understand about triage, if happens BEFORE you get an icu bed. Once you're in that icu bed it's yours until you recover or don't. If you have an eighty year old who had turned the corner and is likely to come out off icu in another 2 days, they'll get that 2 days, regardless of there is a thirty year old needing the same bed. No free beds, tough. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm sure i read this when the subject came up right back at the start when we were looking at Italy and China and wondering how bad it would get here (a problem we avoided by discharging positive patients to care homes and not bringing during people to the hospital in the first place).

In that scenario, they wouldn’t remove the 80 year old a couple of days sooner. They wouldn’t say ‘oh well we’re full in here, the 30 year old will just have to be left to die….’

No way

What have we been doing? Getting on with life, carefully, mostly.

Indefinite? No, but we need to consider things intelligently and respond accordingly. We have got through the summer with relatively very few restrictions, remember, and it was always going to be " a very difficult winter".

they WOULD remove I mean

Jesus the lack of empathy for children and adults with illness and disability is staggering. Such a shame their cancer or whatever is spoiling your little Xmas get together 🙄

@MummyPop00

I’m sorry but an indefinite hold on normal life switching things on & off is not sustainable. Maybe the CEV who are exposed need to reconsider that exposure?

Also, Covid has been doing the rounds since freedom day, so what have the CEV who have survived this far been doing?

Jesus you're attitude is disgusting. You should be ashamed.

I get that right now, you don't have anyone in your life that has any health problems. That must be lovely. Well done you.

But you do realise that at any moment that situation could change. Your mum, your sister, your child could be one the people you are so happy to 'other' and dismiss as expendable.

Maybe think a bit more about how you feel then rather than bring your natural selection/eugenics lite shit out to play in public and embarrassing yourself further.

So no practical answers apart from slurs.

Jesus this place is pathetic.

Yes, lockdowns on & off forever it is then!!

South Africa doing ok this time with lots of HIV & Diabetes but no lockdowns?

No, intelligent analysis of the facts and appropriate response

@MummyPop00

So no practical answers apart from slurs.

Jesus this place is pathetic.

Yes, lockdowns on & off forever it is then!!

South Africa doing ok this time with lots of HIV & Diabetes but no lockdowns?

SA have mostly done better than U.K. throughout:

@herecomesthsun

I skimmed it; along the lines that SAGE aren't modelling scenarios in which omicron isn't a major disaster and that this is bias.

When a quick flick to the pictures in the latest SAGE data dump shows they are.

SA have mostly done better than U.K. throughout:

"Cases" across the course of the entire last two years doesn't tell us much other than how much testing is going on; the same criteria would tell us that Somalia provides the best example of how to run a pandemic. Recorded deaths are often dodgy too, because of the way things are recorded.

Excess mortality in SA has been really bad during this pandemic, suggesting that deaths from COVID have been greatly undercounted, and are probably among the worst in the world.

This is entirely predictable; middle-income countries like SA have been the worst hit by COVID for most of the pandemic. They are wealthy enough to have large numbers of older and fatter people, and most of their pops live in cities, BUT at the same time they are also not wealthy enough to elbow their way to the front of the vaccine queue or to have loads of spare healthcare capacity.

www.businessinsider.co.za/south-africa-excess-deaths-amid-covid-19-worst-in-the-world-2021-8