Omicron variant could cause 75,000 deaths by April

[AchillesLastStand]

As stated in thread title if we stay in Plan B according to government scientists.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists

Does anyone recall how many died in the wave last winter to compare?

In a normal (non covid) year, around 200,000 people die in the UK between January and April.

www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/comparisonofdeathsfromjanuarytoaprilin2019and2020

So 75,000 dying from Omicron would be well within that assuming that figure is not excess deaths, which is unclear.

I want to know how many of those 75,000 would be excess deaths (horrible but useful phrase).

@minipie actually you'll be very surprised to learn that the ONS puts up these statistics in a monthly report which is freely available and doesn't require a FOI request to cherry pick.
Why don't you have a look at the excess deaths from the same period in December 2020-April 21 when we had to lockdown? You'll find those were horrendous even accounting for " with not of".

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2020to2021provisionaland2019to2020final

,there have been hospitalisations in otherwise healthy individuals. I've never heard of a cold doing that.*

DS has mild, well controlled asthma. He was in hospital a fortnight ago because he had a bad cold and 'viral induced wheeze'. Thankfully that hasn't happened for 5 year but when he was a preschooler he was in and out of hospital whenever he got a cold (this time of year the paediatric wards are full of preschoolers with 'viral induced wheeze', i.e. children with a cold) till he was ill enough to need oxygen for several days and we finally got a daily steroid inhaler and spoke to the asthma nurse and got an asthma plan in place.

Do you really not know any one with asthma? Because lots of them will have been in hospital as a child with 'just a cold'.

@rrhuth what a useless response.

So, scientist are saying we don’t have any relevant data but let’s just say there could be up to 75000 deaths.

@JaninaDuszejko - of course I know people with asthma. That is why I said a cold does not hospitalise an otherwise healthy individual rather than a cold never hospitalises anyone.

[quote DayKay]@rrhuth what a useless response.

So, scientist are saying we don’t have any relevant data but let’s just say there could be up to 75000 deaths.[/quote]
that is what modelling is, you refine and refine as more becomes clear. We have base data, like what is Delta covid like, how many are vaccinated, how old is the British population etc.

How do you think anything new has ever been done? You think it through.

The alternative is just watch it happen and clear up the bodies I suppose

If Omicron is just a cold, why have South Africa's excess mortality figures doubled in the last few weeks?

[quote OchonAgusOchonOh]@JaninaDuszejko - of course I know people with asthma. That is why I said a cold does not hospitalise an otherwise healthy individual rather than a cold never hospitalises anyone.[/quote]
If it is asthmatics being hospitalised does that not matter so much then?

@jimmyhill

If Omicron is just a cold, why have South Africa's excess mortality figures doubled in the last few weeks?

Majority of their population are unvaccinated so the picture here will probably be different. I'm not saying it's just a cold but it's useless to compare the situation there to the situation here.

The guardian LOVE a bit of covid doom and gloom. I've started to roll my eyes whenever another depressing covid headline pops up on my phone.

@TheyWentToSeaInASieve

The virus is here to stay. It will not go away. We cannot hide forever, making future generations pay for our bad decisions.

I thought with more mutations, viruses become less deadly and stop killing their hosts (if it does so, the virus dies too).

If it as mild as is being reported, Omicron could be a great natural way to improve the population's immunity.

I thought with more mutations, viruses become less deadly and stop killing their hosts (if it does so, the virus dies too)

Look at what you’ve written here and have another think. Why would a virus die out through killing its host when it’s infectious before most people know they have it? Once you’ve been to the pub and the supermarket and coughed on a few people it really doesn’t matter if you croak it two weeks later.

@rrhuth - If it is asthmatics being hospitalised does that not matter so much then?

What on earth are you on about? The discussion is about why there is concern over omicron and its potential impact. Many, many posters have stated the public health reasons why it is of concern. A poster stated omicron is the equivalent of a cold. I disagreed as the levels of hospitalisations recorded in otherwise healthy individuals with omicron would not be seen with a cold. They then came back to state asthmatics can be hospitalised with a cold, to which I responded that was the reason I worded my comment as I did.

How, exactly, did you take that to mean asthmatics being hospitalised don't matter? Of course they matter. However, the number of asthmatics being hospitalised as a result of a cold is not going to overwhelm the health service so from a public health perspective precautionary measures to protect the system are not necessary. And protecting the health system to ensure asthmatics and all others who need to use it, is essential.

[quote OchonAgusOchonOh]**@Newjobnewstart* - Everything I have read about omicron is that it is very mild no worse than a cold.*

You're obviously not reading very much then. The evidence to date suggests it is milder. However, there have been hospitalisations in otherwise healthy individuals. I've never heard of a cold doing that.

While it's important not to scaremonger, it's equally important not to minimise the impact.[/quote]
What many people call the common cold is actually RSV and hospitalises many thousands of babies and elderly every year. It just doesn’t hospitalise anyone between the age of 1 and 70ish. Go do some reading yourself.

What many people call the common cold is actually RSV and hospitalises many thousands of babies and elderly every year. It just doesn’t hospitalise anyone between the age of 1 and 70ish.

Young children do not have fully developed immune systems. Elderly people tend to have other conditions and lowered immunity. My point stands.

@OchonAgusOchonOh

What many people call the common cold is actually RSV and hospitalises many thousands of babies and elderly every year. It just doesn’t hospitalise anyone between the age of 1 and 70ish.

Young children do not have fully developed immune systems. Elderly people tend to have other conditions and lowered immunity. My point stands.

Immune systems have nothing to do with it. You said you’ve never heard of the common cold causing hospitalisations. You’re wrong. The common cold is a generic name given for any mild snotty/temperature/cough like illness, which can be from many different viruses, including RSV and influenza. Both can cause hospitalisations in people who are otherwise fully healthy.

DC1 caught “a cold” in 2018, shared it with the rest of us, DH and I caught “a cold” DC2 caught the virus and spent a week intubated in hospital, diagnosed with RSV (2 months at the time, full term baby, fully healthy, no health issues since). Hospitalisation of an otherwise healthy individual who caught “the common cold”

I can share scientific research if you prefer. RAV causes 3,000,000 hospitalisations globally in the under 5 age group.

@visitingagain I’m not sure what your point is. I was using that link purely because it shows e January to April figures very easily, not because it was from a FOI request (which I didn’t even notice).

I have no doubt there were plenty of excess deaths last winter. I’m not some sort of covid denier who thinks it’s all a conspiracy.

But that doesn’t mean there will be the same this winter, with people now vaccinated. Vaccines have an enormous impact on the severity of covid, and it appears that includes omicron. So it is perfectly legitimate to see a projected figure of 75,000 deaths and ask whether those are excess deaths or not.

The period being covered by the estimate is about 20 weeks. Even with limited numbers of Omicron cases compared to other variants, about 1,000 a week are dying within 28 days of a positive Covid test.

So an increase of three fold does not seem that far fetched if measures are not in place or observed.

Vaccines have an enormous impact on the severity of covid, and it appears that includes omicron

2 AstraZenica have no effect on Omnicrom at all.

You said you’ve never heard of the common cold causing hospitalisations.

No I didn't. I said I had never heard of it in otherwise healthy individuals. I would not include those with lowered or immature immune systems to be in the category of an otherwise healthy individual, as even though they are as healthy as is possible at their age/given their condition, they are susceptible to illness in a way that those with a mature immune system are not. I should probably have used the word adult instead of individual.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

Vaccines have an enormous impact on the severity of covid, and it appears that includes omicron

2 AstraZenica have no effect on Omnicrom at all.

No. 2AZ doesn’t stop you catching omicron, yes, but it is expected to still offer good protection against having it severely (research still being done but this is expected result).

@TheYearOfSmallThings

I could pull Kevin Costner, I mean it's not impossible is it

Is he still alive?

@OchonAgusOchonOh but flu hospitalises and causes deaths every year, we don't go into hiding because of that.

@rightsideoftheroad - but flu hospitalises and causes deaths every year, we don't go into hiding because of that.

I really hope you are being disingenuous with that comment. Surely you can see that a pandemic is different to the normal cyclical flu season?

www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/19778261.nasa-warns-huge-asteroid-heading-towards-earth-week/

[quote soredust]www.salisburyjournal.co.uk/news/19778261.nasa-warns-huge-asteroid-heading-towards-earth-week/[/quote]
The 11th Dec has already passed.