Omicron variant could cause 75,000 deaths by April

[AchillesLastStand]

As stated in thread title if we stay in Plan B according to government scientists.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists

Does anyone recall how many died in the wave last winter to compare?

Sounds like this study assume similar disease outcomes to Delta

However, Prof Paul Hunter, of the University of East Anglia, said any model was “only as good as its assumptions”, adding that one key assumption here was that severity of disease outcomes for Omicron was the same as for Delta.

But all the data is suggesting it is milder - that is even what the WHO is saying but we don’t have the data yet.

I wonder if we are seeing the gradual normalising and acceptance of deaths from COVID, by society over time
Yes probably, just as we have normalised all other deaths from cancer, flu, pneumonia, whatever else. We can't all stay on high alert, high emotional upset about covid forever as its just not sustainable. We now know covid will be around forever and people will die from it forever, so it has to become less of a big deal when people do die from it.

Nadhim Zahawi confirmed this morning that people are being hospitalised with the omicron variant.

Omicron may turn your hair blue. Even though the evidence seems to show the opposite we should panic just in case.

@TheNoonBell

Omicron may turn your hair blue. Even though the evidence seems to show the opposite we should panic just in case.

People are in hospital with Omicron.

@FatCatThinCat

Nadhim Zahawi confirmed this morning that people are being hospitalised with the omicron variant.

Are they being hospitalised because of it or just testing positive when being admitted?

I noticed he didn't say for COVID but with.

The word play is both astonishing and terrifying.

@FatCatThinCat

Nadhim Zahawi confirmed this morning that people are being hospitalised with the omicron variant.

Vaccinated or unvaccinated?

BBC article is very vague and admits
“ It is not clear if those people who are in hospital with Omicron are there because of the virus or for other reasons.”

@TheScenicWay

BBC article is very vague and admits “ It is not clear if those people who are in hospital with Omicron are there because of the virus or for other reasons.”

Those were my thoughts on reading the article.

It's completely, deliberately vague.

@TheScenicWay

BBC article is very vague and admits “ It is not clear if those people who are in hospital with Omicron are there because of the virus or for other reasons.”

Oh well here you go we don’t even know that

Nadhim Zahawi On Andrew Marr this morning:

"If we see even half the severity we saw with Delta, then we're facing a very large number of hospitalisations and deaths."

There’s a lot of denial on here on how bad things are likely to get.

Vaccinated or unvaccinated?

Far more likely to be unvaccinated, but the issue is whether the NHS is going to be overwhelmed.

What amazes me is how every wave is like the first time:

• It'll not get here
• it'll get here but I read it was like a cold
• No one is hospitalised yet
• People are in hospital with it but they weren't admitted for covid
• No one has died from it here
• People have died with it but not of it

And on and on...!

I don’t find those kind of vague reports re hospital useful tbh especially when we’re still waiting on variables to be confirmed

On LBC today they had a lady speaking from SA saying how mild this new variant is and how nobody has died and it's less severe.
I listen to everyone and the data seems so muddled it's hard to know who to believe.

Yes I heard that and it may pan out like that in the end. But as Zahawi said today there are already hospitalizations from omicron and we don't hospitalize cases in the UK unless you really really need it or else you suffer at home until you get better. So if this scales up like it looks like it may then the numbers of admissions sky rockets into an already almost full hospital capacity. And there is the bind for the government. Combine that with lack of homecare capacity (currently 10% of beds are being occupied by old but well folk to where there is nowhere to discharge to) then the government is between a veritable rock and a hard place.

then the government is between a veritable rock and a hard place which has been made more hard/rocky by their own failures in health care, social care and covid mitigations , sadly for us

The ones in hospital may have caught it in there ? If there is bed blocking going on ( which is always the case anyway at any time ) then it may have been brought in from the community?
They don't know anything yet.

I'm surprised more hasn't been said about the potential impact once you have this easily spread variant inside a hospital.

Staff will be going off sick and isolating, patients already immunosuppressed by other conditions will get sicker and may die.

I have a CEV family member that was admitted to hospital this morning. If she contracts Covid whilst there, I am quite certain that she won't survive it.

But hey, according to some on here she doesn't matter as she not a marathon running healthy member of society.

@ChequerBoard

I'm surprised more hasn't been said about the potential impact once you have this easily spread variant inside a hospital.

Staff will be going off sick and isolating, patients already immunosuppressed by other conditions will get sicker and may die.

I have a CEV family member that was admitted to hospital this morning. If she contracts Covid whilst there, I am quite certain that she won't survive it.

But hey, according to some on here she doesn't matter as she not a marathon running healthy member of society.

Seen as though healthcare staff can be living with family/housemates who are positive with covid and are still expected to come into work it's hardly a mystery as to why at least in part it's likely to spread quickly, sadly.

@JaninaDuszejko unfortunately having even mild asthma puts you in the well they had a pre existing condition category according to the COVID minimises.
It really doesn't matter to them that the said person is living a normal life.

Bbbbbbollllllllllocks!

I thank you.

@AchillesLastStand

Nadhim Zahawi On Andrew Marr this morning:

"If we see even half the severity we saw with Delta, then we're facing a very large number of hospitalisations and deaths."

There’s a lot of denial on here on how bad things are likely to get.

Yup

Which is absolute nonsense based on the evidence we have...look at South Africa. Lots of cases, yes but most are mild.

The crazy predictions of the so-called experts, especially Ferguson. have been wrong every time.

There really has been some irresponsible reporting from the tabloids with all these 'could' and 'would' and endless doomsday scenarios.

All this nonsense is achieving is that people are either ignoring all restrictions and refusing to give a damn anymore or they are so frightened that they forget that for the majority Covid has always been a mild illness and end up in complete panic/scared to go out.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-wont-go-back-to-covid-wards-say-traumatised-nhs-staff-jbzqjmn6g

We won’t go back to Covid wards, say traumatised NHS staff
Hospitals could be under unprecedented pressure this winter as Omicron hits
There could be up to 2,000 daily admissions to hospital within weeks

RICHARD POHLE FOR THE SUNDAY TIMES
Traumatised medical staff are refusing to be redeployed back to Covid wards, limiting hospitals’ ability to respond to a projected surge in patients triggered by the Omicron variant, NHS chief executives have warned.
Government scientists say there could be between 1,000 and 2,000 daily admissions to hospital within weeks. This will hit the NHS at the worst possible time as the service battles an existing capacity crisis of not enough beds or staff, which is already affecting patient care. There are logjams at every stage of treatment.
Hospital staffing
Internal NHS modelling predicts peak winter pressure will come in early to mid-January. Across England, hospitals are getting ready for what could be the toughest weeks the NHS has yet experienced.
One hospital chief executive from the Midlands, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the projected Omicron admissions made him “shudder because the modelling we’ve done is on an assumed bed occupancy of 95 per cent already. So if you add the impact of the Omicron variant, the mitigation plans we’ve pulled together look like toy guns firing at a tank really”.
He added: “Critical care is already at 130 per cent bed occupancy. Our plans talk about expanding into other areas but the director of nursing has said we can’t staff those beds because the people who went there before in the previous waves are saying they won’t do it.

“It was voluntary before and now they’re saying no. We are getting people, from a critical care perspective, downing tools. So we can’t expand further.”
The head of a London NHS hospital added: “I’ve got a lot of staff who have said they’re not going back on to Covid words and I think you’ve got to pay attention when people are saying that.