Omicron variant could cause 75,000 deaths by April

[AchillesLastStand]

As stated in thread title if we stay in Plan B according to government scientists.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists

Does anyone recall how many died in the wave last winter to compare?

Everything I have read about omicron is that it is very mild no worse than a cold. No one has died of it so I am at a lose to where this mass hysteria is coming from.
From what I can gather it is a good thing that it is mutating and we will reach endemic stage sooner.

The ‘hysteria’ is coming from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Did you read the article?

News articles with "could" in the headline have become quite tiresome. I'd love to see an analysis of real life events versus these predictions. I know the guardian is only reporting on modelling done by other people, but the headlines are so sensationalised.

The 'hysteria' is not due to the severity of it but the transmissibility. Even if you only have a tiny number of a huge number dying, that's a big number in terms of the human cost and the pressure on the NHS. Even if the fatality/serious complications rate is substantially lower than we've seen with previous variants, if so many people are going to be infected with it at the same time, that number will still be very significant in terms of its impact on health services.

As to your question, OP, this suggests around 63,000 excess deaths over last winter, with 84% related to Covid, although it's still provisional: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2020to2021provisionaland2019to2020final

It could cause the deaths….or it might not 🤷‍♀️

According to BBC news the virus is spreading rapidly but there is huge uncertainty how dangerous it is and how it might impact hospital admission,s

I could pull Kevin Costner, I mean it's not impossible is it

That is absolute worst case scenario. Another scaremongering headline. It was the same modelling that said we could have 100,000 cases a day by July with Delta and everyone took that as a given. We are certainly in a much, much, better position right now than we were 12 months ago.

www.statista.com/statistics/1109595/coronavirus-mortality-in-the-uk/

Not the clearest graph to read, but it has a slider which gives cumulative totals. On 1 Dec 2020 it was 59,051 and on 1 March 2021 it was 122,953

So 63,902

So they are expecting it to be up to 17% more deaths

scaremongering by scientists rabid for a lockdown!!!

@Newjobnewstart

Everything I have read about omicron is that it is very mild no worse than a cold. No one has died of it so I am at a lose to where this mass hysteria is coming from. From what I can gather it is a good thing that it is mutating and we will reach endemic stage sooner.

The issue is that even if it's very much milder than Delta and only a tiny % become very ill, if it's as contagious as it looks, a LOT of people will get it. And a tiny percentage of a lot of people can still fill up all of our intensive care beds, not to mention take a large % of people out of work for 10 days or more.

And it could not? Let's panic and impose onerous restrictions anyway. Perfect.

@milly74

scaremongering by scientists rabid for a lockdown!!!

No, the very necessary calculation of the reasonable worst case scenario. Important for planning.

We never reached that level because measure to a inhibit transmission were introduced. That shows the success of those measures (unless you believe the reduction was caused because some of the modelling was conducted on a flawed basis, in which case can you describe what those flaws were)

We're all going to die....again 🙄

@Newjobnewstart

Everything I have read about omicron is that it is very mild no worse than a cold. No one has died of it so I am at a lose to where this mass hysteria is coming from. From what I can gather it is a good thing that it is mutating and we will reach endemic stage sooner.

Covid has always been a mild illness for most. The problem has always been the small proportion for whom it is not.

I’ve had covid twice and it’s been like a mild cold both times. I know a few people who have had it entirely asymptomatically. That doesn’t mean it’s not killing people.

We simply don’t know yet what kind of mortality will be caused by Omicron, but it being mild for most doesn’t mean very much.

.

170,000 have died so far so 75,000 is not exactly an outrageous number in comparison.

@ReeseWitherfork

News articles with "could" in the headline have become quite tiresome. I'd love to see an analysis of real life events versus these predictions. I know the guardian is only reporting on modelling done by other people, but the headlines are so sensationalised.

Amen.

I could pull Kevin Costner, I mean it's not impossible is it

The issue is that even if it's very much milder than Delta and only a tiny % become very ill, if it's as contagious as it looks, a LOT of people will get it. And a tiny percentage of a lot of people can still fill up all of our intensive care beds, not to mention take a large % of people out of work for 10 days or more

The NHS has very low margins of beds available for new admissions - usually about 5%. There are currently about 5% of occupied beds with covid patients. It won't take much of an increase to push NHS into a real crisis, especially if lengthy admissions are required.

The small percentage of a large amount is a number that is concerning to planners. Even if omicron causes 50% fewer admissions, that only gets us the grace period of one doubling (as current hospitalisation rate is about 2%, down from 9% before widespread vaccination)

As it appears to be doubling every 3 days, it could get very dicey very quickly.

We'll know more in a few weeks, as it'll take (based on disease patterns to date) a week for the new omicron infections (acquired this week) to need admission, and then a further week or so for deaths (though of course there are lots of cases outside those timelines - so it could mean at 3weeks before there is much chance of an adequate picture.

Covid has always been a mild illness for most. The problem has always been the small proportion for whom it is not

The 500,000 critically vulnerable (immune suppressed) are a small proportion of the population, but enough to fill NHS capacity. Then add on the rest of the CEV and the CV (let alone the elderly, though for all these group s the vaccine should work as expected) and it's pretty easy to see why there is concern and why policy makers are going firbthe precautionary approach until more is known

I don't know what the answer is, but I find the shifting attitudes towards COVID and mitigation measures absolutely fascinating.
I remember reading once that, around the time of the Black Death, there was a general increase in violence in society, as noted in written records and archaeological digs. One theory for this is that the huge increase in death from the plague, led to human life becoming devalued.
Although obviously not comparable, I
wonder if we are seeing the gradual normalising and acceptance of deaths from COVID, by society over time. The longer this goes on for, surely the more normal it becomes and the less likely mitigation measures will be accepted?

@Newjobnewstart - Everything I have read about omicron is that it is very mild no worse than a cold.

You're obviously not reading very much then. The evidence to date suggests it is milder. However, there have been hospitalisations in otherwise healthy individuals. I've never heard of a cold doing that.

While it's important not to scaremonger, it's equally important not to minimise the impact.