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Original poster

Omicron variant could cause 75,000 deaths by April

312 replies

AchillesLastStand · 11/12/2021 13:28

As stated in thread title if we stay in Plan B according to government scientists.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists

Does anyone recall how many died in the wave last winter to compare?

OP posts:
Blubells · 13/12/2021 16:39

But we need to know whether Omicron was the CAUSE of death!

Itsnotover · 13/12/2021 16:39

@Blubells

At least one person has now died from Omicron.

No one person has died WITH Omicron. We don't know whether omicron was the cause!

So you think they have in fact died of something else? 🤔

Guacamole001 · 13/12/2021 16:40

It is saying that the person died with not of the virus online.

Itsnotover · 13/12/2021 16:42

Visiting a vaccination clinic in London, he said people should set aside the idea Omicron was a milder variant.

I mean, not that I think Boris Johnson tells the truth but people arguing about deaths from covid not really being from covid I have no time for.

Itsnotover · 13/12/2021 16:42

@Guacamole001

It is saying that the person died with not of the virus online.
It always says that.
zen1 · 13/12/2021 16:42

Yes, I noticed on the news Boris was careful to say with Omicron not of Omicron. It is entirely possible they died of something else but happened to have a test that showed they also had Omicron. We don’t know the extent to whether they were actually sick with Omicron when they passed away.

MarshaBradyo · 13/12/2021 16:43

The one death doesn’t tell us much in terms of useful data.

It’s good at getting headlines and repeated on SM though.

Blubells · 13/12/2021 16:45

It always says that.

No it doesn't. When a person dies of Covid, their death is due to the virus.

When a person dies with Covid they also have covid and could well have caught it n hospital!

Blubells · 13/12/2021 16:45

It’s good at getting headlines

Exactly

zen1 · 13/12/2021 16:47

It is annoying that everyone who died with a positive COVID test is lumped together so we don’t know who actually died due to that disease or it was just an incidental finding.

rrhuth · 13/12/2021 16:49

@Guacamole001

It is saying that the person died with not of the virus online.
Yes, 'with not of' is the usual line, in the constant covid misinformation campaign
MarshaBradyo · 13/12/2021 16:56

THREAD: We can confirm 10 people have been hospitalised with the Omicron variant in England; these individuals were diagnosed on or before admission.

mobile.twitter.com/UKHSA/status/1470393604136968192?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This is the information.

rrhuth · 13/12/2021 16:58

@zen1

It is annoying that everyone who died with a positive COVID test is lumped together so we don’t know who actually died due to that disease or it was just an incidental finding.
The ONS publish it from what was put on death certs: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

They provide huge datasets and you can download it and do your own analysis.

What you get daily is those within 28 days of a positive test, what you get on death certs is the cause of death. No one is hiding anything from you.

OverTheRubicon · 13/12/2021 17:03

@zen1

Yes, I noticed on the news Boris was careful to say with Omicron not of Omicron. It is entirely possible they died of something else but happened to have a test that showed they also had Omicron. We don’t know the extent to whether they were actually sick with Omicron when they passed away.
How high do you think rates are? There's now plenty of evidence from previous waves that there were a huge increase in deaths, but not a huge increase in deaths from other conditions, so it wasn't about people dying from strokes due to lack of ambulances - it was about the illness itself. There are also lots of deaths due to covid that would NOT count because it was more than 28 days from the positive test - many middle aged or younger people had a week before getting really sick and many more weeks in hospital before ultimately dying. Other people might have had covid that massively exacerbated an underlying condition so that 6 weeks after testing positive they died of a heart attack for example - but without being weakened by covid they could have had another decade.

It's a comforting untruth to believe these are all with not of.

OverTheRubicon · 13/12/2021 17:04

Also the ONS data for previous waves - was about to link, but somebody already has.

MarshaBradyo · 13/12/2021 17:07

Better to use excess deaths and yes generally they reflect reported Covid deaths in U.K.

But using one death today and claiming to know details is wishful thinking, not you particularly Over but pp going on about denial

rrhuth · 13/12/2021 17:09

No to mention all those people who: had severe covid - left hospital recovered - died within a year. NOT just old people.

Every single death 'with covid or of covid'. Every single hospitalisation 'with covid or of covid'.

This is a graph showing 'of covid' mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469427334784634889/photo/1

Warhertisuff · 13/12/2021 17:10

@zen1

It is annoying that everyone who died with a positive COVID test is lumped together so we don’t know who actually died due to that disease or it was just an incidental finding.
The ONS have analysed this, and well over 90% of deaths with Covid on the death certificate were judged to have Covid as the proximate cause of death. Would Governments around the world be collectively mad and masochistic enough to screw their economies because no one can read the data?
ChequerBoard · 13/12/2021 17:18

[quote rrhuth]No to mention all those people who: had severe covid - left hospital recovered - died within a year. NOT just old people.

Every single death 'with covid or of covid'. Every single hospitalisation 'with covid or of covid'.

This is a graph showing 'of covid' mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1469427334784634889/photo/1[/quote]

Yes, plus all those who have 'recovered' and are now living with heart failure, kidney disease etc.

The multi-organ impacts of Covid are still not properly understood.

amicissimma · 13/12/2021 17:26

"What you get daily is those within 28 days of a positive test, what you get on death certs is the cause of death. No one is hiding anything from you."

Even this is misleading as there is space on the death certificate for the primary cause of death and also for anything that the doctor thinks may have been a contributory factor. So if someone has a severe stroke, goes into hospital mortally sick and picks up Covid, the doctor may consider that s/he died a little sooner for having the Covid, but that isn't the same as 'would have survived were it not for having Covid'.

rrhuth · 13/12/2021 18:15

@amicissimma

"What you get daily is those within 28 days of a positive test, what you get on death certs is the cause of death. No one is hiding anything from you."

Even this is misleading as there is space on the death certificate for the primary cause of death and also for anything that the doctor thinks may have been a contributory factor. So if someone has a severe stroke, goes into hospital mortally sick and picks up Covid, the doctor may consider that s/he died a little sooner for having the Covid, but that isn't the same as 'would have survived were it not for having Covid'.

I am sure there are some covid deaths not recorded as covid deaths and some non-covid deaths incorrectly labelled as covid deaths. Ultimately only the divine knows the absolute balance of causes in each case.

Do you think the covid death stats are a lie? Only if you are a total denialist. We've had loads. The excess death stats, the covid deaths stats, the hospitalisation stats and the firsthand testimony from medics and relatives all tell us our numbers are pretty fucking accurate.

Itsnotover · 13/12/2021 18:25

I don't know why some people still bury heads in sand and say 'oh it could be something else that killed them'

MarshaBradyo · 13/12/2021 18:27

@Itsnotover

I don't know why some people still bury heads in sand and say 'oh it could be something else that killed them'
What are you talking about?

The one death in headlines today or just generally

Itsnotover · 13/12/2021 18:32

Generally.

I hope the omicron variant is less dangerous but it seems a bit concerning that all the people in hospital with it are double vaccinated, unless I've misunderstood something.

MarshaBradyo · 13/12/2021 18:52

Fair enough. It’s claims that people know details re the one death that I don’t get.

Re vaccination starts does that go back to most of us are vaccinated? Not sure tbh