Omicron variant could cause 75,000 deaths by April

[AchillesLastStand]

As stated in thread title if we stay in Plan B according to government scientists.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists

Does anyone recall how many died in the wave last winter to compare?

@UnmentionedElephantDildo

Covid has always been a mild illness for most. The problem has always been the small proportion for whom it is not

The 500,000 critically vulnerable (immune suppressed) are a small proportion of the population, but enough to fill NHS capacity. Then add on the rest of the CEV and the CV (let alone the elderly, though for all these group s the vaccine should work as expected) and it's pretty easy to see why there is concern and why policy makers are going firbthe precautionary approach until more is known

120,000 people are dead in the UK.

The stats I’d really like to see are the projected number of hospitalisations and deaths if the entire adult population had both jabs and the booster.
Appreciate the scientists might not have that data yet.

They must however know if they’re basing the 25-75000 on:

1. Current percentage of population vaccinated or
2. Whole population vaccinated or
3. Not taking account of the vaccine at all

Clearly 1 and 3 could produce a very different outcome to 2.

It's not just pressure on hospitals. Even if a fairly mild illness, and mild often means felling very unwell but not needing hospital, if many many people are off sick at the same time then it impacts schools, the police, the bin men, the delivery drivers, the supermarket worker...... and so on.

crack on with life

This is always my favourite viewpoint of all. I wonder if it would be nice to be so simplistic in one's approach, or if being so simplistic makes life difficult?

But anyway, I think 'just crack on' is what Bolsonaro tried .

@Tabbacus - Colds have done that.

Really? Could you point me to some data on that as I have never heard of a cold causing hospitalisation in otherwise healthy individuals.

Just crack on was what BJ tried for a short period in March 2020, till even he had to face reality (helped by Macron as I recall).

Cracking on involved the Cheltenham Festival being allowed to take place as normal.

Yes I was about to say that too. Never heard of a cold putting anybody in hospital.

@LidlMiddleLover

Count the number of colds and crack on with life

And they wonder why one of the most common words that come up during this discussion is "selfish". Closely followed by "stypid"

Or "stupid", bloody fat fingers and an inefficient autocorrect 😂

This is the scientific paper on this. Worst case scenario is unlikely by the look of it based on what we know, the best case is probably a bit too optimistic cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/omicron-england.html

Yup the deniers are bang on here. 75000 might die. But they might not. So let's do nothing and wait and see.

Colds do put people in hospital. Rhinoviruses usually exacerbate asthmatic symptoms.

So...it's basically like everyone having a cold at the same time, if the reports of the nature of the illness coming out of SA and Norway are accurate.

My 74 year old dad who had Alzheimer's eventually died of a cold which he caught from one of us, or a doctor or a carer. It turned to pneumonia and he died.

Yes if a million people have a cold at the same time, a fair number of old or vulnerable people will sadly die with that cold. (and it was clarified today that it was one million in total, not one million per day ) And because we are required to isolate would mean that workplaces and schools and infrastructure would be in trouble.

But we would still be imposing restrictions for a cold.

Does that seem proportionate?

What a load of shite

@Guacamole001

Yes I was about to say that too. Never heard of a cold putting anybody in hospital.

And yet they frequently do, and people frequently die of them. Colds can make you feel very poorly and for some people they can end their lives.

@milly74

scaremongering by scientists rabid for a lockdown!!!

Par for the course for the Guardian though, isn't it? They have scaremongered and worst case scenario predicted right through.

Why anyone reads that shit I have no idea. And as Morris Zapp said lots of things are possible. I could win the Lottery. I could get struck by lightning.

@HesterShaw1

So...it's basically like everyone having a cold at the same time, if the reports of the nature of the illness coming out of SA and Norway are accurate.

My 74 year old dad who had Alzheimer's eventually died of a cold which he caught from one of us, or a doctor or a carer. It turned to pneumonia and he died.

Yes if a million people have a cold at the same time, a fair number of old or vulnerable people will sadly die with that cold. (and it was clarified today that it was one million in total, not one million per day ) And because we are required to isolate would mean that workplaces and schools and infrastructure would be in trouble.

But we would still be imposing restrictions for a cold.

Does that seem proportionate?

Well, we woudn't be imposing restrictions for a cold, would we?

We would be imposing restrictions for covid.

The number of deaths could potentially be high, and you might be the sort of reckless person who wants to test how high they get by just counting the bodies afterwards, but politically that is unlikely to wash as most people won't support that. Plus if deaths are high, the NHS will keel over.

As with every new virus and variat of covid, the early data is in the young. This is because young people are mixing more, there are higher case rates amongst the young.

The info we do not have yet is - what is the hospitalisation and death rate amongst those in olde rage groups?

We all hope it will be low.

Rrhuth did you not notice the "if" in my first sentence?

Just seen the ITV News - which is reporting that the potential deaths could be between 25,000 and 75,000 - so anywhere between 33% and 120% of last year's figures. So it's a real fudge isn't it? Especially as they are also saying that the impact on NHS is hard to predict

@RoseAndRose

Just seen the ITV News - which is reporting that the potential deaths could be between 25,000 and 75,000 - so anywhere between 33% and 120% of last year's figures. So it's a real fudge isn't it? Especially as they are also saying that the impact on NHS is hard to predict

What are they basing that on? Everything I’ve heard about omicron is that it’s mild.

What always gets me is when people talk about 'healthy individuals' or 'oh they had underlying conditions' as if their lives don't matter or as if those people had one foot in the grave already. My DM has an 'underlying condition' but is totally healthy day to day and has a lot of years left, hopefully. But due to the immunosuppressants she is on, Covid could indeed kill her. There are a huge number of people in this country who have 'underlying conditions' or other health issues but are nowhere near ready or expected to die in the imminent future. But their deaths seem to be excused as being irrelevant to us all.

What are they basing that on? Everything I’ve heard about omicron is that it’s mild. Is that maybe because you get your scientific info from your Aunt Sally on Facebook?

All scientists are saying they do not have the relevant data yet to determine if it is milder. And also even if it is milder, if twice as many people get it, then more will die.

[quote herecomesthsun]@JesusInTheCabbageVan that is very funny re the mathematicians, I will tell that to the rest of my very mathematically minded and somewhat Aspergery household.[/quote]
Is

I really really hate the media for how they are handling this .

Give the scientists more time .

But this is spreading rapidly ( read about Victoria hislop dinner party)

It’s how serious the symptoms are that count and what age groups it affects .

Christmas. Is going to be interesting. Reduced mixing at work. But close mixing at family gatherings.

Just remember it is not just the uk government facing this dilema .

@Starcaller

I totally agree . There are millions with underlying health problems.