Omicron variant could cause 75,000 deaths by April

[AchillesLastStand]

As stated in thread title if we stay in Plan B according to government scientists.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists

Does anyone recall how many died in the wave last winter to compare?

It could cause the deaths….or it might not 🤷‍♀️

I love when people say this as if it”d something we should be prepared to take a gamble with.

It might kill you it might not. Still so keen to brush it off?

[quote OchonAgusOchonOh]**@Newjobnewstart* - Everything I have read about omicron is that it is very mild no worse than a cold.*

You're obviously not reading very much then. The evidence to date suggests it is milder. However, there have been hospitalisations in otherwise healthy individuals. I've never heard of a cold doing that.

While it's important not to scaremonger, it's equally important not to minimise the impact.[/quote]
Colds have done that. But more to the point, the media picking the worst case scenarios to report on gets a bit tedious, no wonder some are still terrified of stepping foot outdoors.

I don't think @TheyWentToSeaInASieve you have any idea about how society works. Even if omicron is mild ( and mild can mean absolutely felled in bed for two weeks) imagine if every household you know has a case at once - sick enough to take 3 or 4 days off work ( let's pretend isolation is not a thing). Now think about what those people do for a living and take them out at once. Bus drivers, shop workers, medical staff, school staff, bin men, call centre workers, meat packers... and then rinse and repeat for a couple of months while everyone is ill.
It's makes the pingdemic look like a walk in the park.

@Newjobnewstart

Everything I have read about omicron is that it is very mild no worse than a cold. No one has died of it so I am at a lose to where this mass hysteria is coming from. From what I can gather it is a good thing that it is mutating and we will reach endemic stage sooner.

Either you're reading some wacko stuff or you're misunderstanding what you're reading.

It has clearly been explained repeatedly that:

a) we don't yet have conclusive evidence Omicron is milder
b) it will have to be very much milder to not overwhelm health services due to expected increased transmissibility + vaccine escape

We all hope for the best but to dismiss science as 'hysteria' is embarrassing.

Meanwhile everyone panics....and I've take 3 phone calls today to cancel Christmas get togethers/meals at my restaurant over the coming week. Add that to all the other Christmas parties that have already cancelled.... fucking media just need to stop all this alarmist bullshit and quoting 'modelling' Show me one set of modelling over the past 2 years which has been spot on correct

This thread explains quite well the differing scenarios in the modelling - could be 75,000 deaths, could also be 24,000 at most optimistic.
twitter.com/BarnardResearch/status/1469646833563615237?t=IbUj3bnDJiQghpgH977BSw&s=19

There's a lot of differing information but from what I can see most scientists are taking the cautious approach and waiting for more detail. John Burn Murdoch is an excellent Twitter follow on the developing situation.

I don't understand why people keep on quoting the WHO statement about no deaths from almost two weeks ago. Things change every day. Omicron is dominant in SA and there are deaths every day - and the question of the excess deaths too which are odd. I just think we need time.

Being cautious about it doesn't make scientists lockdown lovers as many here would so intelligently claim; it simply makes them sensible. If something is coming that looks like it could be catastrophic, do you just block up your ears and hope, minimising everything in sight to fit your narrative, or do you put in mitigations to prevent it to the best extent you can?

I think the pp who talked about people normalising covid deaths was right. Covid fatigue has set in to an extent that people have dehumanised those dying (they did this from early on.) And they ignore those dying because of the knock on effects to eg on cancer treatment.

And none of this whole 'its only mild, who cares' talk takes long covid into account at all. But that's pretty normal and expected, as someone with long term chronic illness I'm used to the minimising.

@rrhuth

We all hope for the best but to dismiss science as 'hysteria' is embarrassing.

This. I keep seeing eminent scientists dismissed as hysterical scaremongerers. It's highly offensive as well as embarrassing.

Thanks for all your posts by the way - I'm in awe of your patience in the face of such mass misinformation and wilful ignorance.

@Thunderpunt

Meanwhile everyone panics....and I've take 3 phone calls today to cancel Christmas get togethers/meals at my restaurant over the coming week. Add that to all the other Christmas parties that have already cancelled.... fucking media just need to stop all this alarmist bullshit and quoting 'modelling' Show me one set of modelling over the past 2 years which has been spot on correct

I understand this is dreadful for your business. Covid has been terrible, my DH's line of work badly affected.

I think cancellations are inevitable, and probably sensible, my concern is the government is not going to support businesses again.

@MorrisZapp

I could pull Kevin Costner, I mean it's not impossible is it

pmsl... surely you can aspire higher, MZ!!

Guardian: "Omicron could cause between 25,000 and 75,000 deaths"

So the title of this thread would be just as rational to say 25,000 .... = bad flu season, anyone?

Modelling isn't spot on correct, it's not meant to be

it's to show what might happen if o one does anything so it's always different to what happens

I model building a house and discover not enough room for a sofa so I change the design

The model wasn't right but it was useful

I think the pp who talked about people normalising covid deaths was right. Covid fatigue has set in to an extent that people have dehumanised those dying (they did this from early on.)

Quoting daily deaths and cases has been used for as a tool for impact on behaviour throughout the pandemic. It is effective but this doesn’t mean we should feel differently to other deaths. The same could be done to reduce other deaths by changing behaviour.

Do you feel other deaths are normalised to you? Would you say it is dehumanised or you just don’t think about all reasons for death that much

@Whattochoosenow

It could cause the deaths….or it might not 🤷‍♀️

If I drive extremely fast down a busy road I could kill people or I may not. If that a good enough reason to risk it?

The amount of scientifically illiterate comments on this thread two years into a pandemic is embarrassing.

there is a huge leap in numbers in south korea

@MarshaBradyo

I think the pp who talked about people normalising covid deaths was right. Covid fatigue has set in to an extent that people have dehumanised those dying (they did this from early on.)

Quoting daily deaths and cases has been used for as a tool for impact on behaviour throughout the pandemic. It is effective but this doesn’t mean we should feel differently to other deaths. The same could be done to reduce other deaths by changing behaviour.

Do you feel other deaths are normalised to you? Would you say it is dehumanised or you just don’t think about all reasons for death that much

Not sure what you're asking there - is it that you think I'm saying covid deaths should be seen as more important because other deaths are not highlighted every day etc? I think that all deaths matter, of course, and we should do everything in our power to minimise illness and pain. It's one reason I worry about covid - the impact on other illnesses (as a CEV person I've missed out on some important treatment and normal protocols eg blood tests, appointments, which has worsened my own condition.)

But sorry, I'm not sure I've understood, but that might be because my mind is medication-fuddled!

@milly74

scaremongering by scientists rabid for a lockdown!!!

Actually I think you'll find it's mathematicians, they're the ones who do the modelling.

That's right, those rabid power-crazed lovers of chaos, the mathematicians, all want you to miss your Christmas disco. All of them, all over the world. This is why they went into maths in the first place, they've been playing the long game.

Madhair yes I think we’ve been engaged in a campaign focusing on Covid deaths - since the very first death we’ve had information every day then recently not so often.

So when people are upset / troubled by anyone no longer effected by a number it’s really just reverting to what we usually do as a society. We don’t get stats on RTA, flu deaths or lung cancer for example and as such it’s not something we think about much - outside any personal tragedies of course.

It’s the caring to the extent we have that has been the outlier - for obvious reasons it effectively changes our behaviour in a pandemic.

Forgive me if I'm wrong but surely milder viral illness is always more transmissible as people are more likely to be out and about with a 'cold' so more chance to spread it. Whereas with a virus like flu people are more likely to be bedridden quite early on in the illness. I'm pretty sure Kate Winslet said that in Contagion

@JesusInTheCabbageVan that is very funny re the mathematicians, I will tell that to the rest of my very mathematically minded and somewhat Aspergery household.

No it depends , illnesses that spread strongly before symptoms don't have much need to be milder

Here is a link to LSHTM's initial paper with the different scenarios
twitter.com/DevanSinha/status/1469645836455919623

Sorry if someone posted upthread, the OP had posted the Guardian article.

Is no one concerned by the worldwide increase in non covid excess deaths currently happening?

@Ridingthegravytrain

Is no one concerned by the worldwide increase in non covid excess deaths currently happening?

I would imagine everyone is concerned by rising deaths, whatever the cause.

Most people are concerned by covid deaths and deaths from other causes. Unfortunately they are linked as well, as pressure on health services due to high covid case rates pushes up deaths from other causes.

@Ridingthegravytrain

Is no one concerned by the worldwide increase in non covid excess deaths currently happening?

Yes.

But if course that cannot be improved until covid is more readily controlled. When they say 'we need to learn to live with it' it means spotting new variants early, and being able to throw precautions round it, at least for the first few weeks whilst assessments of impact are worked out. Flattening and spreading curves is the best change of tackling backlogs

Count the number of colds and crack on with life

It doesn’t seem to be causing hospitalisations currently.
Can’t do much but just look after ourselves and try to keep our immune systems working well.
Take vitamin d
Eat fresh fruit and veg (for vit c)
Some say zinc is beneficial.
Get enough sleep
Get regular exercise