Omicron variant could cause 75,000 deaths by April

[AchillesLastStand]

As stated in thread title if we stay in Plan B according to government scientists.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/11/omicron-covid-variant-could-cause-75000-deaths-in-england-by-end-of-april-say-scientists

Does anyone recall how many died in the wave last winter to compare?

From the introduction to the paper itself:

"● Due to a lack of data, we assume Omicron has the same severity as Delta. If Omicron exhibits lower severity than Delta, this would decrease the projected number of severe outcomes in our model.

● We do not evaluate the impact of alternative control strategies such as enhanced mass testing, which could form part of a package of less-stringent control measures capable of mitigating the epidemic."

Paper available here: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/omicron-england.html

[quote 89redballoons]From the introduction to the paper itself:

"● Due to a lack of data, we assume Omicron has the same severity as Delta. If Omicron exhibits lower severity than Delta, this would decrease the projected number of severe outcomes in our model.

● We do not evaluate the impact of alternative control strategies such as enhanced mass testing, which could form part of a package of less-stringent control measures capable of mitigating the epidemic."

Paper available here: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/omicron-england.html[/quote]
Top point seems particularly relevant

Because the models have always been super right since the start.

Have literally ANY models come to fruition? I'm thinking of the '£4000 a day hospitalisations' in Oct 2020 as well as the 200,000 cases a day after 19th July.

At least they've acknowledged and made clear it's 'uncertain', damn straight they're uncertain cos previous models have been a load of bunk.

Not, £ excuse the typo.

I saw a meme about this a few days ago. The best way to deal with new variants is to turn off the tv and deal with the facts. The "could be" news is all contradictory and plucked out of thin air. I've seen Omicron is so mild that nobody is being hospitalised all the way through to under 5s are more affected (the latter is a thread title on here)

Honestly I'd wait for a few week and see what facts emerge. It could be 75,000 or it could be 7,500. There's nothing that we can do about a virus which is going to spread regardless.

This is a good South African twitter account for Omicron analysis.
Appears to be peaking and far lower hospitalisations than the Delta wave.

To me, the issue is that it shouldn't overwhelm the NHS. The only reason it will is because there is no give in the system. I know in our trust it's not that we can't deal with all the sick people from covid (there are fewer now than there were 4 weeks ago), it's that even a small number of extra beds occupied means we cannot operate effectively. That shouldn't be a reason to lock down. We are essentially locking down because we have an inadequately resourced service, not because there will be bodies lining the streets. Where will it end? At this variant, the next?
I don't post often and I know that many will disagree but that is what I think.

The things is, it's always a case of wait and see. And the waiting produces all sorts of headlines and speculation.

It could go either way, but I think we can all agree that preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is sensible.

WHO have said so far there have been no deaths from omicron.

They simply don't know because they don't know if it is of similar virulence to delta or not (though initial evidence looks promising that it is milder). Until then, there is not much point trying to estimate number of deaths. The model is only as good as the assumptions it is based on.

@JuneOsborne

The things is, it's always a case of wait and see. And the waiting produces all sorts of headlines and speculation.

It could go either way, but I think we can all agree that preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is sensible.

Depends what preparing for the worst entails?

Restrictions or being ready

Meh, heard it all before. I didnt believe them then, and I dont believe them now. It might happen, it might not.

Virus gonna virus 🤷🏻‍♀️

@Ridingthegravytrain

WHO have said so far there have been no deaths from omicron.

Omicron has been identified for only two weeks (though there was probably some in circulation before it was spotted)

As it usually takes around 3 weeks for fatalities to occur, then absence of deaths before that point doesn't tell us anything.

We'll know more in a few weeks, when the outcomes more cases in more places are known (SA has a comparatively young population, and it's the middle of summer there - the outcomes there might not map well to an older population in the middle of winter. But it won't take that long to have a better idea)

@MasterGland

I don't know what the answer is, but I find the shifting attitudes towards COVID and mitigation measures absolutely fascinating. I remember reading once that, around the time of the Black Death, there was a general increase in violence in society, as noted in written records and archaeological digs. One theory for this is that the huge increase in death from the plague, led to human life becoming devalued. Although obviously not comparable, I wonder if we are seeing the gradual normalising and acceptance of deaths from COVID, by society over time. The longer this goes on for, surely the more normal it becomes and the less likely mitigation measures will be accepted?

I think so too. Back at the start of the pandemic people were watching with horror as the death rate rose into double figures, clamouring for lockdown as the daily rate headed for 100. But now 200 deaths a day is seen as a good thing as at least it's stable and people are hostile to any sort of restriction.

Keyword. "COULD."

It’s not just deaths though. As it’s super infectious it means a lot of people will be sick at once.

This will impact transport, schools, shops, emergency services, hospitals and supply chain.

@Ridingthegravytrain

WHO have said so far there have been no deaths from omicron.

It's confusing, as South Africa have memorably reported, for example, the death of a 15 year old.

Excess deaths in South Africa rose from 1091 the week ending November 21st to 2076 the week ending November 28th.

So it looks a bit unclear what is happening there.

And it is still fairly early days in terms of seeding in many of the other countries.

So - I'm not saying we should panic - but I'm keeping an open mind about that.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

It’s not just deaths though. As it’s super infectious it means a lot of people will be sick at once.

This will impact transport, schools, shops, emergency services, hospitals and supply chain.

I really don't think anyone is considering the impact of lots of people falling ill within the space of a few weeks.

Even if they all got better, the sick leave levels could cause significant disruption

@luverlybubberly

I saw a meme about this a few days ago. The best way to deal with new variants is to turn off the tv and deal with the facts. The "could be" news is all contradictory and plucked out of thin air. I've seen Omicron is so mild that nobody is being hospitalised all the way through to under 5s are more affected (the latter is a thread title on here)

Honestly I'd wait for a few week and see what facts emerge. It could be 75,000 or it could be 7,500. There's nothing that we can do about a virus which is going to spread regardless.

Well said

@sproutsandparsnips

To me, the issue is that it shouldn't overwhelm the NHS. The only reason it will is because there is no give in the system. I know in our trust it's not that we can't deal with all the sick people from covid (there are fewer now than there were 4 weeks ago), it's that even a small number of extra beds occupied means we cannot operate effectively. That shouldn't be a reason to lock down. We are essentially locking down because we have an inadequately resourced service, not because there will be bodies lining the streets. Where will it end? At this variant, the next? I don't post often and I know that many will disagree but that is what I think.

Agree if they didn't run it shit and make so many cut backs .... x

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

It’s not just deaths though. As it’s super infectious it means a lot of people will be sick at once.

This will impact transport, schools, shops, emergency services, hospitals and supply chain.

Exactly, Arse. All the people being blasé because they/their loved ones are not likely to get very ill or die from Omicron need to broaden their thinking a little (as well as work on their empathy).

There is no harm in everyone pulling together and being a bit extra careful right now until we know more.

The virus is here to stay. It will not go away. We cannot hide forever, making future generations pay for our bad decisions.

I thought with more mutations, viruses become less deadly and stop killing their hosts (if it does so, the virus dies too).

If it as mild as is being reported, Omicron could be a great natural way to improve the population's immunity.

Amazing how people, two years into a pandemic that has killed millions, still believe it's all hype and panic over a cold. How mad it must be to be that delusional.

I thought with more mutations, viruses become less deadly and stop killing their hosts (if it does so, the virus dies too)

This doesn't apply to covid, or any other virus which is transmissible before the onset of symptoms. It doesn't care how ill or dead it makes a host from which it has already moved on.

If it as mild as is being reported, Omicron could be a great natural way to improve the population's immunity

We do not yet know how mild it is. Nor what sort of abilities the next variant might have to evade immunity. There might be no evolutionary imperative to change how ill it makes the hist, but there is an enormous one favouring vaccine-escape

Omicron could be a great natural way to improve the population's immunity

Just like having had Delta protects you from Omicrom