Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

I get that you have an issue in your area @peridito. Our school in SW London doesn't have lots of staff off, but your suggestion would have it close anyway for my child, even though of course it might have to close some other time due to its own shortages if they happen. The vast majority of people are only catching covid once; lockdowns and isolation with no infections, as well as endless testing of not-covid bugs that are causing the extended disruptions for kids. We need to keep up the testing, but I would plead with anyone to just keep whatever days in school we can, I am absolutely beyond done with my child losing out.

MRex I agree blanket closure shouldn’t be done like that.

@JanglyBeads

twitter.com/datadrivenmd/status/1466778107914833924?s=21

• more about the SA under 5s hospital admissions.

Very worrying. However, just one potential positive occurs to me: that age group is 100% unvaccinated in SA. Vaccines were only approved for 12-17 yos in October:
www.nicd.ac.za/covid-19-unpacking-south-africas-plan-to-vaccinate-adolescents/

Therefore if they make up quite a large percentage of the admissions, that will skew the figures on vaccination status of those experiencing severe disease.

So vaccine evasion isn’t as big a factor as it looks?

However omicron’s effect on children is….

"DataDrivenMD" is absolutely not a credible account.

There was just this mic-dropping repudiation of one of his posts:

mobile.twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1466760895133097986

Our local school is part of an alliance of schools and have already taken the decision to extend the school holidays (23 days), due to staff burn out, welfare of staff and children over xmas extending into the wider community and concern over the new variant. There was another poster who said a school had extended their hols. Sounds to me like schools are taking the decision themselves.

Another here agreeing that any suggested closure of all schools would be a terrible disservice to some .

@ifonly4 - it's probably the right thing for those schools to break early, or for some to go back late; you say "schools are taking the decision for themselves" - and surely that's correct that the best people to make the decision are the Heads and Governing bodies. For schools less affected right now, that week may be needed later e.g. break early for Feb half term.

Our school are yet to suffer a big Covid outbreak. It's a large 3 form entry and there have been a small number of cases and some spread but so far they have always managed to get on top of it with the measures they have taken. I understand that it's partly luck, partly going above and beyond what they need to do. The holidays are 2 1/2 weeks anyway. There really is no justification for the holidays to be extended. I do appreciate that it may not be the case everywhere.

@ifonly4 academy trusts have more autonomy over those decisions.

I completely agree with closing schools in their own context. Unfortunately for a lot of young people the risk of getting Covid in school is the least of their problems. The effects of how learning and lockdown now that schools are reopening are coming through, and it's not pretty. Schools and communities are best placed to make those judgments. However leaders need support in terms of workload and well being.

@MRex I couldn’t agree more. My six year old is currently at home with covid and as poorly as she is was heartbroken that she’s missing a week of school. The Christmas dinner, Christmas jumper day plus, of course, a whole week’s learning. This might sound trivial but for children who have missed so much, every school day really is crucial right now. Both for learning and the socialisation and fun things that they have had to sacrifice over the last 18 months. I really think children have sacrificed enough.

OK, thanks @manolantern and I apologise to the thread for posting it. It was retweeted by a credible British scientist, otherwise I wouldn’t have seen it. And there is definitely concern in SA about under 5s hospitalisations.

twitter.com/stavvers/status/1467093048589004805

Pretty much why IndySage and Pagel cannot be trusted as scientists at all, just retweeting blatant racist shit. So appalled, please don't use her again as an example of good science, none of it is trustworthy in the slightest.

No worries! Actually something I'm increasingly aware of is that there are high profile and even eminent scientists who are very very trigger happy when it comes to retweeting dubious and disreputable sources!

Ignoring Scotland "data issue" so just looking at England, cases up about 10% compared to last weeks reporting date, still looks to be more targeted/extra testing and all the excess cases in younger groups to me. But obviously don't know for sure. Nothing alarming yet in growth anywhere that I can see, and still in the broadly flat overall rates.

@SaveWaterDrinkGin - I hope she gets well soon! It's so sad missing the small things, hopefully you can find Xmas events in Christmas jumpers once she's better to take away some of the sting. X

Thanks @MRex saving grace is the timing as she gets to go back for last week of school. It just feels like they’ve missed enough doesn’t it? X

Pretty much why IndySage and Pagel cannot be trusted as scientists at all, just retweeting blatant racist shit. So appalled, please don't use her again as an example of good science, none of it is trustworthy in the slightest.

I'm not entirely sure another angry woman is a credible source either. I do not believe Pagel to be racist, the other twitter account has now gone. Indy sage is made up of many credible scientists and your link does nothing to persuade anyone otherwise.

Some interesting data out of one SA hospital in the midst of the outbreak. twitter.com/miamalan/status/1467172016918773775?t=eocnSB3gUVsVSdOrLI7PJw&s=19

Cautions a lot that we need more data and it's early days, but suggestion appears to be that Omicron is spreading very fast, but the people in hospital with it are less sick than previously, indeed most of them were admitted for reasons other than covid (including most of the children)

Firefliess to follow up your post I've just seen this - seems Omicron might be part common cold hence spreading very easily but also having a generally milder presentation:

Link here

@sirfredfredgeorge

twitter.com/stavvers/status/1467093048589004805

Pretty much why IndySage and Pagel cannot be trusted as scientists at all, just retweeting blatant racist shit. So appalled, please don't use her again as an example of good science, none of it is trustworthy in the slightest.

There are many excellent scientists in Indy Sage, including Prof Pagel, who is in post at University College Hospital and has been a very good source of data through this.

Some of the more significant council case increases for this current week in progress - starting from Monday 29th November spec date - as compared with the equivalent position reported last Saturday.

Greewich up 403 cases, 71%

Lewisham up 319 cases, 50%

Lambeth up 335 cases, 47%

Central Beds up 325 cases, 30%

Cornwall up 369 cases, bigger population than any of the above, so a less dramatic 19%

Adding between 200 and 300 cases.

Reigate up 204 34%

Bexley up 222 36%

Bromley up 250 26%

Croydon up 281 30%

Liverpool up 225 21%

MK up 259 22%

Newham up 273 , 48%

Plymouth up 217 18%

Portsmouth up 299 43%

Redbridge up 253 40%

South Gloucestershire up 280 30%

Southend up 228 34%

Southwark up 290 44%

Sutton up 235. 33%

Waltham Forest up 208, 32%

The smaller areas, so relatively smaller case increase as compared with those above, but an increase of at least 40%

South Bucks up 94 41%

South Hams up 186 52%

West Devon up 103. 60%

Forest of Dean up 85 40%

Folkestone up 127. 43%

Dacorum up 160. 41%

Harborough up 147 49%

Boston up 79 43%

Daventry up 129 64%

South Northants up 158 45%

Adur up 65* 42%

Hartlepool up 65 43%

Worth noting several of the above are increasing from a relatively low base.

In case anyone is wondering

Brentwood up 87 cases. 31%

Overall the Essex districts up 1143 cases, 23%. Only Cambridgeshire of the county areas at 24% has a bigger percentage increase.

In contrast *North Yorkshire has a 22% fall for this period, with net falls also for Cumbria, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, low single digit increases in Somerset, Worcestershire Warwickshire

I do not believe Pagel to be racist, the other twitter account has now gone

It's not about if she's racist or not, the tweet she retweeted without comment was just gibberish, it's not science, so for her and indie sage to retweet it without saying "this is gibberish", means they're not actually bringing any scientific reasoning and analysis to their tweets, they're simply retweet things.

If they're failing to bring basic scientific method to obvious gibberish (and racist gibberish at that) then how can anyone possibly rely on any of their other analysis.

It's a more extreme version of their un-referenced other claims, now I'm not thinking they just can't with the brevity of twitter reference, I'm thinking they actually don't have any rigour at all - sorry.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I do not believe Pagel to be racist, the other twitter account has now gone

It's not about if she's racist or not, the tweet she retweeted without comment was just gibberish, it's not science, so for her and indie sage to retweet it without saying "this is gibberish", means they're not actually bringing any scientific reasoning and analysis to their tweets, they're simply retweet things.

If they're failing to bring basic scientific method to obvious gibberish (and racist gibberish at that) then how can anyone possibly rely on any of their other analysis.

It's a more extreme version of their un-referenced other claims, now I'm not thinking they just can't with the brevity of twitter reference, I'm thinking they actually don't have any rigour at all - sorry.

I'd suggest you stop attacking her on the basis of a single retweet which has now been deleted?

It's manifestly evident that she has brought a high level of scientific expertise to the debate and they collectively do the nation a great service in raising the level of the scientific debate.

I think they all need to stop tweeting slightly different takes tbh @sirfredfredgeorge

Might be a slightly harsh opinion but I think if you're part of a body like iSAGE it would be better to have all pandemic related content coming from a single managed twitter feed

I get that if it's your profession you will naturally want to tweet about it, but it causes so much confusion (and in this case she clearly hadn't read the full thread full enough)

fully*

Maybe she is trying to, you know, have discussions about covid, which are open to a wider public?

A bit like we do on here, but not anonymous?

It is a good thing to do in the situation we're in.

And Independent Sage aren't a homogenous mass, they're going to have slightly different opinions, and expertise just as SAGE do.

It's such a complicated picture, there isn't one way to look at it.