Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Forgot to add, I crunched the graph to 1month because this is the relevant time period - the rest of the time Torridge has had one of the lowest infection rates.

Could some kind person tell me where I can find the population figures for each of the NHS regions, please.

I've tried Google but nothing I click on gives me straightforward fairly recent figures.

Thanks for the per million charts, boys3. As I can't find how populous each region is they're a great help.

@TheHateIsNotGood

Even allowing for any confirmation bias on my part, it does appear that Torridge isn't completely following the English 'trend' with much higher rates of infection in the over 40s (nearly all age groups) as well as exceeding the National stats for schoolchildren.

Torridge:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla%26areaName=Torridge#card-cases_by_specimen_date_age_demographics

England:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Could well be down to lack of booster resources - happy to hear any other suggestions.

How was the initial vaccine rollout down there? Were you ahead of the game with this? I remember reading about some areas racing ahead and being very efficient getting through the groups while other areas experienced delays and had difficulty in getting booked in? I wonder if there are areas now where the effect of waning immunity is greater?

In an attempt to distract myself from the BO diplomatic incident some numbers for Torridge. The age breakdown of cases only goes up to 11th November. These look at the past six weeks.

This actual case numbers by age band.

The Torridge rate per 100,000 by age band, plus 11 Nov percentage change as compared to 4th November.

and then the percentage that the cases in each age band represent in each week.

@amicissimma

Could some kind person tell me where I can find the population figures for each of the NHS regions, please.

I've tried Google but nothing I click on gives me straightforward fairly recent figures.

Thanks for the per million charts, boys3. As I can't find how populous each region is they're a great help.

@amicissimma

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualsmallareapopulationestimates/mid2020#population-estimates-by-output-areas-electoral-health-and-other-geographies-data

England - Devon - Torridge case rates per age band in the seven days to 11th November.

@boys3

Hospitalisations at the England level

Always appreciate hospitalisation chart

Interesting piece on radio this am on what’s gone up to add pressure

Cancer treatment / mental health / alcohol related - last two due to impacts of last 18 months

It brings about harms which then add to issues

Also didn’t catch it but are strokes / heart attacks up? Why would that be

Also didn’t catch it but are strokes / heart attacks up? Why would that be

Fitness and other untreated health issues from lockdown can increase the incidence of heart attack and stroke as the critical outcome needing care.

There's also an open question about heart damage from both covid and possibly the vaccine - even though the chance of damage from the vaccine is so much lower than covid, the large number of vaccines given.

Ok thanks makes sense

Many thanks to all for providing insights and data and will look through them all with a fresher head tomorrow.

To add anecdotally to mrshoho - I couldn't say if we were ahead or behind of the game in terms of initial vaccine roll-out but in the first few months we were quite a compliant and accepting area.

I think the weather helped a lot. Also, whilst not so much on the 2nd home owner map back then, there was enough to depopulate the district a bit and the majority of the local workforce who are employed under NMW and zero hour conditions were more than happy to spend some time on 80% income without tugging their forelock and being in control of their days for awhile.

That rare socio-economic circumstance has now gone - it's not quite St Ives or Padstow but any home for sale is now snapped up by cash buyers from elsewhere, the local countryside is now fully gentrified and now there aren't even any options to rent or buy in the 3 towns. And nowhere cheaper for the locals to go to.

Back to Covid, maybe by the next pandemic, with all these more 'important' and 'worthy' people moving here, the area might finally get a fair share of resources.

Many thanks, boys3. That's really helpful. As are all your charts.

38263 cases and sadly 201 deaths reported today.

2nd day reporting for cases with a Monday just gone spec date. This is just England, however the figure after two days is essentially the same as that for last Monday at the same point. Or to be absolutely precise it is 0.8% lower. Which I’d round up as flat.

@boys3

2nd day reporting for cases with a Monday just gone spec date. This is just England, however the figure after two days is essentially the same as that for last Monday at the same point. Or to be absolutely precise it is 0.8% lower. Which I’d round up as flat.

I’ll take flat

Blimey, is it half term again already

@Bordois

Blimey, is it half term again already

Clearly not.

Just needs a big "we are here" arrow on that graph..

That's missing the likely most recent days @lonely - there was certainly a big increase up until the first half of this week, there's some indication in the last couple of days that this is reducing - you're right not to be too confidence.

LFT's are also still implying a slightly higher rate - but that could be about timing of stuff, however the LFT situation makes me think it's not quite as flat as top rate suggests. I do however think it was a very transient post half term big increase which certainly implies that it found its way into just a few schools/groups which had avoided it before.

David Robertson’s analysis stops on Nov 12 or Nov 13 so it is already out of date.

Alternative modelling that combines art with science and is aimed at identifying the most recent trends shows something very different - a plateau rather than an increase.

And, of course, the most encouraging signal is the direction of the red line (cases in over 65s+).

sonourouschocolate was unequivocally wrong a couple of weeks back though, so it doesn't do well as testing patterns change, and I think testing patterns do change either side of school holidays etc. given how much testing is linked to schools.

Yes, these projections were wrong during the half-term period but trends outside of school holidays appeared pretty reliable. They picked up the spike from prior week. Now they seem to be picking up the first sign of cases plateauing. The week on week comparison is not impacted by school holidays so there are no obvious factors that could distort the output.

But I fully agree we should wait until tomorrow. Most schoolchildren are doing LFTs on Wed and positive cases get reported in Thursday numbers. The specimen date analysis run by boys3 will be interesting.