Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Sounds more like just a data transmission breakdown?

containsnuts - I assume this relates to tests performed by private laboratories outside of the government mandate. In our office (London) we have got PCR testing facilities run privately with costs being covered by the employer. Anyone can get tested whenever they want and the results are generally available within 7-8 hours. All the numbers get reported to NHS/PHE in real time (and test and trace still follows up on people who are tested positive). Assume the Scotland’s reporting link (transmission of numbers from private laboratories to PHS) took longer to build.

boys3 - do you happen to have the specimen date analysis for this week (from Mon onwards)? Looks like today’s numbers include a higher than usual catch up for Mon. Thanks in advance:).

Thanks @wintertravel1980. It implies that the labs are not accredited rather "in the process"of being accredited which sound very like the issue with Immensa.

@wintertravel1980 ; a significantly higher than usual number added as compared with the typical third day of reporting for a Monday.

Not too far off 7,500 cases.

To contextualise that figure Monday 25th October has 39116 cases. It third day of reporting added just over 1800 cases. Even adding the 1300 or so added on day 4 that is still less than half the total added today to Monday of this week.

Also worth noting that over 2250 cases added today relate to spec dates between last Wednesday and last Sunday.

In terms of Monday I’m going to have a quick peak at the age distribution for the 7500 added.

Very interesting, boys3.

2147 of the cases added in the 5-14 age bands.

834 in the other two ends of the 0-19s.

Under 20s therefore just over 40% of the extra cases added today to Monday.

2159 in the 35-55 age bands (roughly school parent age). Almost another 30% of cases accounted for.

121 cases added in the over 75s, less than 2% of the total added.

Monday stands at exactly 38,000 cases where the age band is currently known. Monday 8th overall stands at 35.114 cases where age is known. At the moment then Monday 15th almost 3000 cases higher. Every age band from 50 upwards however currently has a lower number of cases on Monday 15th as compared with Monday 8th. Granted the 50-54s are lower by just a single case. 843 fewer cases across the aged 50 and over age groups.

20-29s also lower.

5-9s 1563 higher, and 10-14s 1449 higher

Biggest increase after that is 347 in the 40-44s. Parents perhaps; or school staff? Not accounting for all the increase but doubtlessly some of it.

Then 234 increase in 45-49s and 170 in 35-39s.

Only other group with a three digit increase the 0-4s up 103 cases.

Which I think leaves:

15-19s with 77 more cases

30-34s with 93 more cases

Younger children overtaking older children, unsurprisingly :-

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59336666

@piggywaspushed

Many cases will have been dismissed as 'colds' and parents don't like testing younger children as much. Must be a massive underestimate too. I feel bad for the teachers.

We've had a quite lengthy letter from my daughter's primary school to advise that cases are rising and what we need to do to keep ourselves and others safe. They want family contacts to remain at home.

I'm also a teacher and there were at least 3 kids in the class today coughing constantly throughout the day

@PingleO

We've had a quite lengthy letter from my daughter's primary school to advise that cases are rising and what we need to do to keep ourselves and others safe. They want family contacts to remain at home.

I'm also a teacher and there were at least 3 kids in the class today coughing constantly throughout the day

What age?

I have a young dc and they are all coughing a lot

It’s been a pita but negative tests

Year 2. It was a lot of coughing. 🤦‍♀️

Thread on the location of Monday's case additions, mainly London, South East and West Midlands:
mobile.twitter.com/OliasDave/status/1461393032696287236

Summary of yesterday's surveillance report:
mobile.twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1461465350407602180

There's been a big drop in the PCR testing capacity this week. It's been over 800K capacity since mid September.

14 November capacity was 830K.
15 November it dropped to 683K.
17 November it was down to 667K.

Would explain the large back-dating.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Could someone please explain the back dating to me? Sorry to not grasp it!

Does this mean someone of yesterday's tests should have actually be included in Monday's figures?

[quote ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway]There's been a big drop in the PCR testing capacity this week. It's been over 800K capacity since mid September.

14 November capacity was 830K.
15 November it dropped to 683K.
17 November it was down to 667K.

Would explain the large back-dating.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing[/quote]
That's not very good. Is there a temporary issue at one of the testing labs?

ONS survey, reporting falls last week including in children, here

In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to decrease in the week ending 13 November 2021; ... around 1 in 65 people.

In Wales,.... around 1 in 55 people.

In Northern Ireland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 was uncertain ... around 1 in 65 people.

In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 remained level....around 1 in 95 people.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/19november2021

[quote herecomesthsun]ONS survey, reporting falls last week including in children, here

In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to decrease in the week ending 13 November 2021; ... around 1 in 65 people.

In Wales,.... around 1 in 55 people.

In Northern Ireland, the trend in the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 was uncertain ... around 1 in 65 people.

In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 remained level....around 1 in 95 people.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/19november2021[/quote]
Remember this information is for week ending 13th November.

Over the course of the week ending 13th November, every region's cases went down except East Midlands

A sobering read on child deaths:

www.authorea.com/users/422244/articles/545985-ons-data-on-covid-19-deaths-in-children-is-reliable-and-increasingly-of-concern-re-deaths-in-children-and-young-people-in-england-after-sars-cov-2-infection-during-the-first-pandemic-year

"In summary, by utilising less comprehensive data sets and reassessing COVID-related CYP fatalities, Smith et al. in fact somewhat predictably validate ONS data on CYP deaths as robust and reliable. By extension, it is clear that removal of most mitigations from schools and delays in vaccination have led to unacceptably high levels of deaths among children, which continue to increase."

It is @lonelyplanet. The data from September onwards will be worse too.

It looks like the 40-49 age group can book their boosters online now as long as they meet the 5 months + criteria, being offered dates at 6 months.

@kittykarate

It looks like the 40-49 age group can book their boosters online now as long as they meet the 5 months + criteria, being offered dates at 6 months.

Thanks for the heads up, im booked in for next week 👍

I had my booster yesterday, 2 days early from 6 months, although this is what was offered when I booked. I had to read something from their screen to say I was having it earlier than recommended.

www.news-medical.net/news/20211115/Standard-PCR-tests-do-not-pick-up-new-Covid-strains-warns-expert.aspx?fbclid=IwAR0OYN4nKo8DrveASfh7SFvStIu9ZqOMy0--nvEB2SUp0VgbTsqFQ2LDUfY