Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

I think if it becomes evident at all that vaccination has a clear benefit for younger children, then we need to act quickly and provide it for them.

Especially for any with medical conditions/ vulnerable families. And children at secondary school who haven't been offered vaccinations (year 7)

(without wanting to speculate, as we don't have the evidence)

I also think that if there is an element of uncertainty about balance of risks, in a pandemic with a new pathogen/variant and rising cases, that consideration should be given to the informed needs and wishes of individual families.

SAGE says we need to act now

www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-97-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-29-november-2021

Guardian now reporting that Omicron cases up to 104

Huge “superspreading” party in Norway - 80-90 out of 120 in a large restaurant positive, all expected to be omicron:

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1466891208081428486?s=21

Firefliess, that’s 104 for England, added to the 29 in Scotland and the first Welsh case, that’s 134 for the whole UK.

@alreadytaken

Young children being infected in the uk now is potentially good if they get Delta. Then if Omicron turns out to affect children worse they have a little protection from reinfection.

I don’t know if a positive spin can be put on the high % of children with Delta this autumn as children do not reliably seroconvert with covid. We also do not know of the long term effects or the impact of succession of infections on the young. This is unchartered waters.

In addition it is just a matter of time if (as is well established with other coronavirus) natural immunity is short lived.

www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1083-1

Let’s just hope that these variants do not coexist all the time we do not have robust vaccines preventing symptomatic disease and/or available to the young.

The new variant is so different that this is a concern/unknown.

twitter.com/datadrivenmd/status/1466778107914833924?s=21

• more about the SA under 5s hospital admissions.

Very worrying. However, just one potential positive occurs to me: that age group is 100% unvaccinated in SA. Vaccines were only approved for 12-17 yos in October:
www.nicd.ac.za/covid-19-unpacking-south-africas-plan-to-vaccinate-adolescents/

Therefore if they make up quite a large percentage of the admissions, that will skew the figures on vaccination status of those experiencing severe disease.

So vaccine evasion isn’t as big a factor as it looks?

However omicron’s effect on children is….

Our under 12s are100% unvaccinated mind... (well, not 100 as a few are)

Yes I know piggy. It just means we could be worrying about the wrong thing I guess?

Oh yes, just reread your post : see what you mean.

Omicron cases rising in London particularly SE London:

mobile.twitter.com/ArtyVapes/status/1466996282652827650

Am I right in thinking that there is a longer delay in dx the Omnicron variant than previous Covid manifestations ? And that accurate reporting of cases will be significantly behind cases in real time ?

I understand that only about 50% of UK labs are able to detect S drop out and of course while I assume that an S drop out = Omnicron .I guess that cases won't be counted as Omnicron until verified by further testing which takes another week ( I think ) .

I think the gov will be happy with this as I'm sure they are anxious to delay introducing stricter measures .But I'm anxious about the effect on the NHS .

I've not read much about the rugby, the SA game at Twickenham must have seeded some omicron.

[quote JanglyBeads]Huge “superspreading” party in Norway - 80-90 out of 120 in a large restaurant positive, all expected to be omicron:

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1466891208081428486?s=21[/quote]
That's scary stuff. 70% attack rate and discussion seems to imply they'd all have been double vaccinated.

It depends what you mean by delays in diagnosing, @Peridito.

Incubation time seems shorter (SA data) so you’ll get symptoms quicker and hopefully test quicker.

Only 50% of initial PCRs can detect S gene drop out which signals likely omicron (likelihood of it meaning that increases, as omicron spreads).

Those swabs are then sent for sequencing so that takes ?48 hours longer, so in that sense it’s delayed.

Official figures seem to show suspected and confirmed case numbers.

The ‘only 50%’ of samples presumably mean we should be doubling the reported numbers even just to get an idea of UK case numbers among those actually testing.

By delay in dx ,I just meant the length of time between an individual doing an LFT and the result ( if LFT postive) appearing in published data as an omicron case .

I'm thinking that this process will usually take longer than previous testing processes .

@Regulus

I've not read much about the rugby, the SA game at Twickenham must have seeded some omicron.

Anecdata alert - we know several people who attended the game, and are now ill, assumed Omicron. Illness vary from nothing, to really quite ill. Mid 50's males seem to be worse affected, but then they often are. All double vaxxed but not boosted. They are all actively within the T&T/UKHSA system and have been advised to assume Omicron, and that their samples are being gene sequenced.

Oh really Regulus? Hope they are alL OK. I imagine the numbers of confirmed and suspected cases are going to show exponential growth in the next few days.

Presumably the government will do very little until all hospitals are buckling. 😞

I agree JanglyBeads .The gov will hold back from extra measures to minimise worry amongst public and the economic effect that would have .

Even something like extending the school Christmas break from 2 to 3 weeks .
And I type that with huge sympathy for children and parents .

Think the economy is somewhat higher on their priority sheet than public worry - unless the latter leads to damage to the former.

What Ireland did yesterday does pose the question, at least.

@peridito - Even something like extending the school Christmas break from 2 to 3 weeks
I appreciate that doesn't sound like much, and 18 months ago would have agreed. It's hard to explain to those without young children how much the impact is of what they've ALREADY missed. Extending a break also means very young ones struggle more with the gap. All schools aren't affected equally, so some without cases are then closing anyway. Meanwhile, what do parents do - guaranteed lots of play dates indoors, grandparent childcare because work is already committed etc etc. I see why it sounds good, but I don't personally think it can help.

@MRex - I agree with all you say .Poor kids and parents .

I don't know what's best .But the nos of staff off sick in schools at the moment ( or here in SE London ) is already disrupting schooling and that possibly a planned closure of a week might at least give certainty and time to plan .

[quote MRex]**@peridito* - Even something like extending the school Christmas break from 2 to 3 weeks*
I appreciate that doesn't sound like much, and 18 months ago would have agreed. It's hard to explain to those without young children how much the impact is of what they've ALREADY missed. Extending a break also means very young ones struggle more with the gap. All schools aren't affected equally, so some without cases are then closing anyway. Meanwhile, what do parents do - guaranteed lots of play dates indoors, grandparent childcare because work is already committed etc etc. I see why it sounds good, but I don't personally think it can help.[/quote]
Rather than extending the holidays for everyone, I wonder if staggering the return in high prevelance areas might help a bit - so they don't all go back at once and cause a surge. It seems to be the first few weeks back that's the problem.

We are I think though in danger of treating all areas the same again with across the board closures.

It could benefit some schools are for others have no impact because they are not in that point. Closures should be localised (to schools even not local authorities)

Measures such as WFH, testing, vaccine passports, masks indoors can easily be implemented across the board and those should be