Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Someone in one of the newspapers (sorry, I forget which, probably The Times or Telegraph) was speculating that the Rugby at Twickenham might have something to do with the high Richmond rates.

But the SA game was on 20th and the rates took off around 8th. Tonga was playing at Twickenham on 6th, but would omicron have been around enough to be brought by Rugby fans then? Or maybe it's just a lot of people and Delta? Or nothing to do with Rugby at all?

The Rugby theory would also suggest that the parents are infecting the children rather than the other way as there aren't usually huge numbers of 5-9 year-olds at international Rugby.

The Nottingham case was in West Bridgford.

does it look like many of the areas surrounding/close to Heathrow are rising significantly. Is it workforce cases or school age?

@sirfredfredgeorge

What data from schools?

That schools did not have massive spread until Delta.

That wasn’t data. That was Government saying children didn’t get or spread Covid.

Since we're on the subject of schools and variants:
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1465316967758376962

If this data is omnicron, then again it refutes the idea that it's vaccine / immunity evasion driving the rates rather than increased transmissibility - as it's those without vaccine/prior infection again.

If this data is omnicron, then again it refutes the idea that it's vaccine / immunity evasion driving the rates rather than increased transmissibility - as it's those without vaccine/prior infection again.
It is still too early to tell. However increased transmission isn't good. If cases rise so will hospitalisations and deaths.

@mrshoho

does it look like many of the areas surrounding/close to Heathrow are rising significantly. Is it workforce cases or school age?

These are the only council areas who have a 7 day rate in any of the 20-59 age bands higher than their 10-14 case rate.

Highlighted red border for those where the specific age band is higher.
Not many of them.

Latest data from SA, some worrying signs:

twitter.com/rid1tweets/status/1465394738740224006?s=21

And here - under 2s much more hospitalised

www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/11/29/covid-patients-aged-2-and-under-most-likely-to-go-to-hospital-in-south-african-epicentre/

[quote JanglyBeads]And here - under 2s much more hospitalised

www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/11/29/covid-patients-aged-2-and-under-most-likely-to-go-to-hospital-in-south-african-epicentre/[/quote]
That's the one we really didn't want to see. Poor babies.

@boys3

Surrey

Both Elmbridge and Guildford - the two boroughs with the highest rates in Surrey, and amongst the current highest in England starting to flatten somewhat.

Unlikely to be Omicron surely, as very much school focused as shown by your previous graphs.

I suspect here in Guildford we have just caught up with everyone else. Over the last year or so, very, very few schools cases, and low numbers of burst bubbles. DD's last year in school was not disrupted at all.
Something occurred..... Halloween? Nov 5th? and caused a steady growth and a thence a huge spike.

My teeny tiny MSOA within Guildford borough is currently at 1,851 cases per 100,000 !! All kids and their parents.

That is one very steep line for Guildford!

Schools data

schoolsweek.co.uk/covid-related-absence-jumps-60-in-a-fortnight/

[quote JanglyBeads]And here - under 2s much more hospitalised

www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2021/11/29/covid-patients-aged-2-and-under-most-likely-to-go-to-hospital-in-south-african-epicentre/[/quote]
Is it just me finding this article difficult to follow?

There were eight deaths in the two weeks from November 14 to 28.

Most occurred in older groups, aged 60 to 69. About 1.5 per cent of children aged 4 and under admitted to hospital died. There were no deaths among children aged 5 to 19 in the two-week period.

The bit about 1.5% of under 4s admitted dying doesn't really fit into the rest of the paragraph? Its like 1 set of stats have been inserted into a paragraph about a different set of stats?

Obviously it can't mean that 1.5% of the 8 deaths being reported are in the under 4s bit there's no actual figures to provide context?

Thanks jan. Sobering

This at the end of the article is salutary, given the threads at the moment complaining about teacher absence, cancelled events etc

*On November 25, 2 per cent of teachers and leaders and 1.9 per cent of teaching assistants and other staff were absent due to Covid-related reasons, up from 1.4 per cent a fortnight before.

Absence with a confirmed case of Covid was the most common reason for staff being off.*

The numbers of education staff very ill,and even dying does need to be raised once more by unions and perhaps the interested media. You cna't run scoos with not enough staff.

I found it so hard to follow Bordois, I think they mean 1 of the 70 odd children under 4 admitted died.

I am very confused by the hysteria in general around the numbers compared to the numbers reported by the NICD, the case rates are not growing fast in Gauteng (the average looks fast, but that was due to a reporting DATE issue where for some reason loads were reported on the 22nd, since then cases have not exploded upwards indicating any sort of high speed growth, it's been slower than France)

As to hospitalisations, SA is having the same number of cases as England hospitalised per day, and a 1/3rd the number in hospital (indicating quite a bit lower average stay) it's not growing fast like hospitalisations or cases in lots of Europe etc.

Obviously we don't know all the data, but the data being published by NICD seems competent, no reason to doubt the accuracy, but it just doesn't match any of the narrative.

Scientists and medics are concerned. They are using words like 'worrying'. I think that speaks volumes. I don't see hysteria. I thought we tried to avoid that word on MN as a general rule.

Words like concerning and even ‘horrific’ - re mutation - which surprised me as it seems quite emotive, have been used

But we still don’t know how it translates in terms of real world data do we?

So mutation is bad but still unknowns in terms of variables

Hopefully in two weeks it’ll be ok (no one knows yet though)

Piggy this is the data thread, show me the data that makes it worrying, and not words, words can be in other threads. If there's data to be worried about, we should be able to point to it surely?

Although I’ll take any data that is not worrying at this point

It’s good to see even if not conclusive

John Burn-Murdoch is currently pulling together some of the data. One of his recent tweets compares cases and consequential admissions in each wave.

Currently omicron cases are increasing faster than in previous waves, but admissions are still running at similar levels. This could point to the more contagious but less dangerous theory being true but its probably far too early to tell either way.

@BigWoollyJumpers quite agree with you. Guildford only highlighted as one of a relatively small number of councils with a seven day rate increase of more than 100. I’m firmly in the data rather than speculation camp. Guildford is very much school age children.

Screenshot because I'm a luddite who couldn't work out how to get a link 😞

How have they corrected for the reporting lag screw up on the 22nd? Do they have specimen date for the samples?

'cos if you smooth out the reporting lag to a more expected growth pattern that matches the week after, then the shapes are different?