Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

If the current spikes in London and SE are explained by Omicron it would be incredible good news (since numbers are manageable and most places end up peaking at below 1,000/100,000 before dropping) but it might be too good to be true.

I am afraid Omicron is still circulating at relatively low levels and it will take a few weeks before we see the full impact of this variant.

I think that’s the key isn’t it- we need to wait and see.

I think if we were missing high amounts and had been for a while then I agree with Winter it’s wishful but probably not

More on omicron and the potential trade off between transmissibility and immune escape:

twitter.com/trvrb/status/1465364300936085506

@wintertravel1980 any chance of an idiot’s guide to that thread please?

So this match was causing a bit of a fuss in football circles a few days back. Turns out they all have Omicron

www.standard.co.uk/news/world/omicron-variant-portugal-belenenses-benfica-match-abandoned-cafu-phete-south-africa-b968857.html

SaveWaterDrinkGin

Basically, there is good and bad news. The good news is that the author of the thread believes Omicron is roughly as transmissible as Alpha (rather than Delta). The bad news is that it is highly likely to escape immunity from vaccines or historic infections. However, there is a realistic possibility that immunity against severe outcomes (i.e. hospitalisations and deaths) will still hold up.

@wintertravel1980

SaveWaterDrinkGin

Basically, there is good and bad news. The good news is that the author of the thread believes Omicron is roughly as transmissible as Alpha (rather than Delta). The bad news is that it is highly likely to escape immunity from vaccines or historic infections. However, there is a realistic possibility that immunity against severe outcomes (i.e. hospitalisations and deaths) will still hold up.

What are they basing it on? Just the mutations?

Yes, based on mutations and further modelling using the patterns of spread reported so far.

Turns out they all have Omicron

More on omicron and the potential trade off between transmissibility and immune escape

These two things don't go together though, as alpha would have been very unlikely to infect everyone (the data from schools showed this if nothing else) you'd need higher transmissibility.

Of course if it is vaccine escape, even more important to stop wasting boosters on the west (as they won't stop transmission and protection from severe illness doesn't wane the same we're told) and get them into the nations with low vaccination rates.

What data from schools?

What data from schools?

That schools did not have massive spread until Delta.

Since we're on the subject of schools and variants:
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1465316967758376962

Very low numbers though so don't read too much into it.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Omicron has been in the country for at the very least 10 days, we know at least some of the places where it's been. If it is more transmissible we should be able to see it by faster growth in those areas?

Do we?

whilst I do think it is a bit early to say Brentwood and Nottingham have been mentioned as having Omicron identified.

These are the seven day rates in Essex - across all the boroughs and the two unitaries - since 1st November.

Sharpest increases in Maldon and Southend.

Harlow rose rapidly up to just under a week ago but has fallen back since.

Brentwood increase over the last few days, a more jagged upward trajectory, and in terms of latest rate around the middle of this group of LAs.

As far as Nottingham and Nottinghamshire boroughs go - and thankfully fewer of them than Essex so a less messy graph.

Gedling the only area with a sharp rise in the most recent few days, and effectively a suburb of Nottingham. Rushcliffe has had a more staccato upward trajectory - again West Bridgeford really a Nottingham suburb. City of Nottingham itself fairly shallow upward drift.

Then looking at some other areas where one or more councils have seen an increase of at least 100pts in their most recent seven day rate.

Inner London - Wandsworth highest rate, but looks to be slowing, and as the last available age band suggested heavily driven by school age cases. Worth noting that the latest Wandsworth rate is still under the 500 per 100,000 mark.

Outer London - Richmond is the stand out, and with a rate some way above Wandsworth. Quite a gap then to Sutton and Kingston Very much a SW London thing.

To give some context as to what a high rate looks like - this is Devon.

Sharp increase in Torridge in early November although that has certainly slowed over the last week and may well have peaked.

East Sussex - Eastbourne sharp rise over past week, although again slight fall back in the final seven day period shown (to 26th November)

Cambridgeshire

Cambridge, South Cambs and Huntingdonshire all increasing since around end of the first week of November although none at particularly rapid trajectory.

Northamptonshire - just a mess (in terms of the graph).

Corby heading up since end of first week, same for Kettering. Conversely Daventry quite a big fall, and Northampton itself also on a slow downward drift. East Northants sharper rise over last four or five days.

Surrey

Both Elmbridge and Guildford - the two boroughs with the highest rates in Surrey, and amongst the current highest in England starting to flatten somewhat.

I have a question re booster jabs. Initially boosters were 6 months post vaccine 2; then 5 months...now they’re from 3 months. I know the logic of the govt if this - get as many people done ASAP for the population’s protection, but is there ANY data about which length is the best/if there’s a difference in longevity of protection by having it sooner vs later?

Re the cases in schoolchildren in Brentwood and Nottingham, there have been very big rises in age 10-14 and 5-9 all over the country after half term; it would be hard to say whether or not the Brentwood & Nottingham rises are just part of these general increases in cases.