Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

75-79s to 85-89s

finally the oldest and youngest age bands. 90s and over and the 0-4s

back to the overall England level this final set compares the rate per 100,000 since the start of October this year and last year for each age bands. 4 bands per graph; youngest four groups first.

Remembering no LFTs this time last year; plus the November lockdown.

20-24s to 35-39s

40-44s to 55-59s

60-64s to 75-79s

and the final three oldest bands

Thank you!

Poo monitoring in SA!!!
twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1465126369608744968?s=21

More data on hospitalisations in Gauteng in S Africa
twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1465037954783621131

7 week case rates rise down from a peak of 18% to 4.5% - hoping this continues. The news always focuses on increasing cases, but never acknowledges slow downs. Keeping fingers crossed despite Omnicron.

I am starting to get a bit annoyed at the BBC et al constantly implying deaths and hospitalisations slowly rising on days when there is an increase, and never looking at the trends. They still use graphs for "whole of pandemic" too, which gives a very skewed view of where we are currently.

I agree

Yes, if it had not been for Omicron, the numbers would have been pretty encouraging.

Re: hospitalisations - the number of patients in hospitals (England only) is 20% down on the early Nov peak (6,094 as of today vs 7,500+ In the beginning of the month). Boosters are clearly making a huge difference.

Cases are marginally down but the regional picture is mixed. SE and London still have room to go up before they go down (in my personal opinion).

Of course, Omicron messes everything up and all we can do is wait for new data.

Omicron has been in the country for at the very least 10 days, we know at least some of the places where it's been. If it is more transmissible we should be able to see it by faster growth in those areas?

Do we?

As with previous variants, milder (If it is) but more infectious (unlikely it's not) can still lead to more hospitalisation as a wave rushes through. I don't think we can tell much of anything this quickly.

It's possible its (reported) different symptoms mean people w Omicron haven't been as widely testing so we have thus far only picked up people who have travelled?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Omicron has been in the country for at the very least 10 days, we know at least some of the places where it's been. If it is more transmissible we should be able to see it by faster growth in those areas?

Do we?

I'm not sure we'll see it via a rise in case rates all that soon - the level of Delta cases is pretty high all over the country currently, so even if Omicron was twice as infectious it would take it quite a few weeks to catch up and start to comprise a large enough proportion of all cases that you'd notice. Better to look at the evidence coming out of SA I think - they seem to have decent data there (though a different mix of people being vaccinated or previously infected, which might make things play out differently here)

but we don't need to see "omicron" cases, just any case growth in an area - why would it take quite a few weeks? Certainly it could take weeks before overall it was dominant, but given how @mrex was able to trace alpha moving through South London last year, I cannot see why it would be different with omicron.

Delta provides an R of 1 with current restrictions in the UK, and little change, if doubling time of omicron with similar restrictions really is less than 3 days which some have said the SA data implies, then it really shouldn't take long to be visible.

Guildford has shot up fast! They have a high vaccine take up rate as well.

It's possible its (reported) different symptoms mean people w Omicron haven't been as widely testing so we have thus far only picked up people who have travelled?

I was thinking this @Piggywaspushed

Covid has swept through my DD’s primary school recently. To be fair it had somehow escaped with remarkably no cases until late last summer term, but it’s been absolutely rife since half term. Interestingly the vast majority of the kids have been asymptomatic and the ones who have had symptoms have had headaches rather than the classic covid symptoms.

@SaveWaterDrinkGin

It's possible its (reported) different symptoms mean people w Omicron haven't been as widely testing so we have thus far only picked up people who have travelled?

I was thinking this @Piggywaspushed

Covid has swept through my DD’s primary school recently. To be fair it had somehow escaped with remarkably no cases until late last summer term, but it’s been absolutely rife since half term. Interestingly the vast majority of the kids have been asymptomatic and the ones who have had symptoms have had headaches rather than the classic covid symptoms.

Are you saying that it could be omicron?

When Delta swept through DS school in September it was a mix of asymptomatic and headaches so that for primary sounds perfectly normal for Delta

It's possible its (reported) different symptoms mean people w Omicron haven't been as widely testing so we have thus far only picked up people who have travelled?

This is a great hypothesis for the "more restrictions" folk, as it provides an explanation for falling cases as we currently have that's actually bad - we'd see it in the data only with omicron being sequenced in the associated hospitalisations.

@MarshaBradyo I’m not sure. But I guess it’s possible if adults are still only testing for temperature, cough and loss of taste/smell that a variant could spread before we know about it.

(ie we can't see it until the delayed hospitalisations)