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Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 14/11/2021 17:51

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
240
JanglyBeads · 27/11/2021 11:09

This helped me understand a bit more about the mutations being discussed:

twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1464344471290761225?s=21

MRex · 27/11/2021 12:32

Calum Semple has nailed his colours to the calm-down mast: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59442141. I recall he was pretty dismal about how winter 2021 would go generally with catch-up on other viruses and another Delta wave, so he isn't always optimistic.

JanglyBeads · 27/11/2021 13:09

In order to beat the pandemic, we may need to think about AIDS treatments (in SA):

twitter.com/moritzgerstung/status/1464287402038640647?s=21

sirfredfredgeorge · 27/11/2021 13:23

Isn't part of the reason for variants "emerging in Southern Africa", the large amount of genome testing they do though, like the UK, they do a lot, most countries do little? Is it not a detection bias - given previous variants haven't made it out of south africa in any appreciable numbers just means they don't have any transmission benefits - so lots of mutations could be happening elsewhere too, they simply go undetected?

oneglassandpuzzled · 27/11/2021 14:06

The BBC has just announced there are two cases of Omicron in the UK.

oneglassandpuzzled · 27/11/2021 14:12

... in Chelmsford and Nottingham, according to Sky. Linked cases. Targeted testing to take place in these areas.

TinselRoastingonanOpenFire · 27/11/2021 15:31

Also press conference at 5pm to discuss the above has been reported on bbc.

JanglyBeads · 27/11/2021 15:59

Seemingly, some good news from SA, symptoms appear very mild:

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464622927333232640?s=21

MRex · 27/11/2021 16:03

Ooooo that makes Omicron sound more like a nice Christmas present. Open the borders, free flights etc.

Naughtynovembertree · 27/11/2021 16:05

Maybe.

This is actually a break through? Because it's mild??

herecomesthsun · 27/11/2021 16:21

I think taking some precautions till we have more data is the right thing to do.

It would be great however if it does turn out to be clinically mild.

lonelyplanet · 27/11/2021 16:58

"Beware of anyone who is overly confident on anything about this variant right now.
There is a lot we need to find out."
mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1464226057045876754

AlecTrevelyan006 · 27/11/2021 17:01

the seven day average for Hospitalisations and deaths continues to fall

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Bizawit · 27/11/2021 17:21

Encouraging numbers today. Overall we are just down from last Saturday..

MarshaBradyo · 27/11/2021 17:23

Good news re down and hospitalisation/ deaths

Fine with list of changes

So just need information re variant in next few weeks

Bordois · 27/11/2021 17:31

I think pcr for returning travellers is a serious precaution

Bordois · 27/11/2021 17:31

Sensible not serious 🤣

MarshaBradyo · 27/11/2021 17:35

Ah I’ll raise my glass to the scientists at Christmas - a la Whitty

mrshoho · 27/11/2021 17:42

I agree it is sensible to be cautious. I think after living through this hell it is worth the extra precaution even if it turns out the variant is not as harmful. Even the government now realise that doing nothing until the shit hits is not good for the health or the economy of the country.

Notmulan · 27/11/2021 20:04

@sirfredfredgeorge

Isn't part of the reason for variants "emerging in Southern Africa", the large amount of genome testing they do though, like the UK, they do a lot, most countries do little? Is it not a detection bias - given previous variants haven't made it out of south africa in any appreciable numbers just means they don't have any transmission benefits - so lots of mutations could be happening elsewhere too, they simply go undetected?
Yes @sirfredfredgeorge I agree they do a lot of genome testing so were able to discover the variant sooner , they might not have been the source country of the variant .

I’m surprised we went for day 2 pcr tests and not pre departure tests.

sirfredfredgeorge · 27/11/2021 20:19

So given the hypothesis that Omicron is more contagious than anything else, and is readily detectable in pcrs (even if they're not sequenced) and it started in southern aftrica. Why is there not any growth in any other southern africran countries, indeed they're all still falling?

If it is more contagious, where would we see it in the data - at the moment so much is being looked at the fast growth with detection rates in Gauteng, but why not anywhere else? It could of course be a "new" variant right out of Gauteng, but that doesn't fit with the genetic lineage having it coming firmly from something last seen in 2020 - delta was dominant there.

MRex · 27/11/2021 22:57

Basically zero testing in some places like Tanzania, or at least it was banned under Magafuli before he died of covid, while there was reportedly a lot of sickness. People can migrate quite swiftly across a couple of borders, always heading for Jo'berg. With others who can't afford healthcare. It could easily slip through.

PassingByAndThoughtIdDropIn · 27/11/2021 23:05

If it's extremely contagious but less severe then it could run riot in a developing nation with low testing without being noticed if it's not resulting in mass hospitalisation.

That's the best case scenario really.

Quarantino · 27/11/2021 23:12

As I understand it (bit 3rd-hand) SA does a lot of sequencing. But even in SA though it costs a fair bit to have a PCR test so I don't think testing levels are going to give a particularly accurate picture?

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/11/2021 08:34

Yes, the countries other than SA obviously do less testing - but they still do testing, they report positive cases etc. Namibia for example, previously detected over 1700 cases per day, but is currently on 8, they won't be testing like the UK, but if they could test that number before. Botswana, previously 800 currently 28, Mozambique 1800 to 8 again. Even Zimbabwe which is perhaps the least capable neighbour has is down to single daily figures from 140.

Sure there are some countries who manage essentially none, but SA's immediate neighbours aren't those, and for a porous land border spread hypothesis that is what you need. Maybe that does point to it arising in Gauteng, but then we need a patient who's incubated a variant for almost a year?