Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Cases are less likely to be reported if they're mild, and those countries have rather young populations in general, which helps. For now I'm clinging to "mild symptoms in low test regions" as a hypothesis. The mild symptoms theory also allows for our Typhoid (HIV+ & covid) Mary to struggle through a year of disease recovery.

Some context about the quotes being shared yesterday about symptoms being mild:
mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464734073897766919

But in that article the Dr doesn't say that it does cause more severe illness in older groups only that it may. Just more speculation presented as fact unfortunately.

Speculation by informed and qualified people needs to be listened to though.

It is really a matter of wait and see. No-one knows yet. Scientists are working hard to get answers but there is not enough data. It may cause mild illness, it may be more severe but speculating won't help.

I do agree Jangly that well informed scientists need to speculate, it's us that should be cautious.

She's not a scientist she's an HCP. Subtle difference. She is speculating from a position of patient experience, not any particular scientific knowledge. Although to be fair she has been reported as speaking in absolutes when she clearly didn't.

Cases down again, the reshuffle of cases at half term seems to have burnt itself out again, and we're back to the just below 1 that happened before half term.

I'm sure many will say it's due to Boris saying wear masks yesterday though...

That’s good re cases

How long is the lag between positive cases and death?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Cases down again, the reshuffle of cases at half term seems to have burnt itself out again, and we're back to the just below 1 that happened before half term.

I'm sure many will say it's due to Boris saying wear masks yesterday though...

I think it's probably got more to do with the success of boosters in the 65+ age group.

@Puppylucky

She's not a scientist she's an HCP. Subtle difference. She is speculating from a position of patient experience, not any particular scientific knowledge. Although to be fair she has been reported as speaking in absolutes when she clearly didn't.

She is certainly being quoted massively out of context on MN, Twitter and many other places...

The problem with the it's only mild hypothesis is that the first reports of the new variant came from Gauteng which has experienced a large increase in hospitalisations just lately

But on the bright side , they were filling with those who had no or partial vaccination

This is probably a really stupid question, but if omicron was that dangerous to the old and vulnerable wouldn't it already be apparent?

@Bordois

This is probably a really stupid question, but if omicron was that dangerous to the old and vulnerable wouldn't it already be apparent?

To be fair it was only identified in the middle of this week, in a country with low rates of cases. With the lag between cases and hospitalisation we won't know for a while.

DfE has mandated masks in school corridors (secondary). Seems an afterthought but there you go.

But aren't people already being hospitalised?

SA has one of the youngest populations in the world. The full quote from the decontextualised SA medic deals with the fact that she has yet to see the consequences in older parts of the population because the people she had seen were young.

Given what she said also about terrible fatigue, I wonder if Omicron has yet more symptoms that we will be overlooking in favour of the Alpha cough/fever.

BBC are reporting a 3rd case in the UK, but when I checked the cog-uk website earlier I'm sure it said 4. However the website has been temperamental today and keeps saying 'bad gateway' when I try to get on. Anyone else had this?

My children have been wearing masks in school corridors all term anyway. In lessons too, sometimes - they are doing the mask hokey cokey - numbers rise, masks on, numbers fall, masks off, repeat...

We already have masks in corridors

is that the first reports of the new variant came from Gauteng which has experienced a large increase in hospitalisations just lately

Do you have a source? All I could find was an increase in ICU patients from 123 to 129 yesterday, that doesn't seem particularly large increase?

On SA don’t they test on arrival to hospital?

If we’re seeing numbers on planes as they are it must be quite high

I’m not up with why we’re looking to Dr’s experience rather than data?

@MarshaBradyo

We already have masks in corridors

You might well do, but this is now a countrywide mandate, SI is back for close contacts too (for the new variant) but no details on that, or how it will be done, or by whom.

It was the first reports , so try your favourite news source , early last week , and add gauteng to your search