Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

The cases in HK and Belgium all seem to be asymptomatic (and vaccinated), so that’s a bit more encouraging.

twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1464245784992432132?s=21

Schools to become Covid testing centres after Christmas. Again. They have til Tuesday to order kits...

Cases just over 50k today

How tiresome... maybe we'll all feel refreshed after Christmas but the planning will need to come beforehand...

Hospitalisation still looking ok

Piggy, I haven’t seen any figures for school-related LFT usage rates, I wonder if there’s evidence to show that relaunching (or rerelaunching!) it in school actually helps?

I imagine this sort of notice will have appeared in many towns today, there’s going to be a lot of people crowded into halls tomorrow, unplanned (so) no thought of requesting LFTs or anything….

“Due to the adverse weather conditions forecast for tomorrow and with public safety at the forefront of our minds we have made the decision to cancel the outdoor Christmas Festival activities and move things around. Please still support our event by visiting the (community hall) and Church Hall.”

Does anyone think they will bring in Plan B soon? Or use the new variant to skip it and go straight in for harsher restrictions.

I think hospitalisations are looking ok but....

Our school Christmas fete (inside) is going ahead as usual. We currently aren't having in person assemblies or staff meetings as cases in the area (and in school) are high, but we're still inviting families into our school hall to gather around stalls. I'm sure my school isn't the only reckless one out there.

@1990butfeel21

Does anyone think they will bring in Plan B soon? Or use the new variant to skip it and go straight in for harsher restrictions.

I think hospitalisations are looking ok but....

No why?

@1990butfeel21

Does anyone think they will bring in Plan B soon? Or use the new variant to skip it and go straight in for harsher restrictions.

I think hospitalisations are looking ok but....

No not unless things change dramatically.

The DfE sent something out on SM today, in fact, positively encouraging those sorts of things. Their attitude to schools does baffle me.

@lonelyplanet @MarshaBradyo I'm just anxious I guess. Sorry to sound so gloomy!

Cases up 10% week on week.
Deaths down 15.5 % week on week.
Patients admitted down 10.5 % week on week.

I know loads that have had covid now and most said its like a bad cold, this must be down to the vaccinations and boosters

yes, the new variant is a concern but I don't see any need to do anything different at the moment

I don't see any need to do anything different at the moment

Nothing will be done. That's not to say there isn't a need to do something to improve the situation in schools; the amount of illness, absence and loss of learning is dire.

@lonelyplanet

Our school Christmas fete (inside) is going ahead as usual. We currently aren't having in person assemblies or staff meetings as cases in the area (and in school) are high, but we're still inviting families into our school hall to gather around stalls. I'm sure my school isn't the only reckless one out there.

Wow! That's madness!
School plays, theatre trip, Christmas fair and movie night have all been cancelled at our school after huge rise in cases 😞

The NHS has collapsed - emergency care is in crisis everywhere in the country inews.co.uk/news/politics/ambulance-trusts-england-highest-level-alert-warning-severe-harm-patients-1317031

and 5.8 million people waiting for routine surgery www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-waiting-list-update-treatment-b1955721.html

but because numbers in hospital have dropped a bit there is "no need to do anything different". And our stupid PM sets such a brilliant example but not even wearing a mask when visiting hospitals.

Great if you have shares in private health care.

Absolutely @alreadytaken. Deaths are going down because of half term, they’ll start climbing again soon.

@JanglyBeads schools wouldn't hospitalisations be climbing by now if that was the case?

@JanglyBeads

Absolutely *@alreadytaken*. Deaths are going down because of half term, they’ll start climbing again soon.

Didn’t someone post why this wouldn’t be the case?

Red I think on another thread

It was a good analysis

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-cases_by_specimen_date_age_demographics_-_above_and_below_60

The dark line "over 60's" is the case rate that "bakes in" hospitalisations and deaths, you can see it's still falling as cases go up. So no, higher hospitalisation is very unlikely to grow the same.

The NHS is overwhelmed due to underfunding and the delays in care caused by covid restrictions, more restrictions will increase the harm later - although anything other than lockdown does almost nothing anyway.

taking sirfred''s link a step further

Breaking case rate in England by age band over the past five weeks. Final column shows the percentage change in the most recent week.

Plus one for actual case numbers.

We are at the stage where "almost nothing" would still be better than nothing. However that is bunkum. Mask wearing does more than a little to reduce transmission, air filters would do a lot more, especially if put into schools and pubs. www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02669-2

There are other options besides lockdowns.

as for the very real challenges facing the NHS the longstanding social care crisis is a further significant factor - a massive issue that existed long before covid.

picking up on BigWoolly's point at lunchtime age rates and cases for Guildford.

5-9s and 10-14s both nudging the 3,000 per 1,000 rate; more than doubled as compared to the week before.

40-44s and 45-49s both past the 1,000 per 100,000 rate