Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@oneglassandpuzzled yes that's tomorrow, 14 hours

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/

has added today to the weekly file updated each Thursday the booster numbers by age band down to Council and MSOA level. So likely the dashboard will add this info in the not too distant future.

Remember the number of cases of the variant is low, even if individuals were flying, the chance of them being positive is much reduced - the scary high percentage is because overall cases are low.

Obviously there's a big question about how many cases South Africa find, but having reported over 20,000 cases per day previously, finding under a 1000 at the moment certainly shows there's not "everyone's" a variant carrier. The prevalence is way lower than any other country being moved to a red list.

Yes but they are only the cases that have been detected fred.

Israel has announced a case, traveller from Malawi:
twitter.com/jerusalem_post/status/1464129890010255361?s=21

South Africa has more flight worldwide connections than many other African countries, and is doing much more testing than some countries. A variant being identified there doesn't mean that's where it started, nor even where it is most prevalent, it could have come from anywhere in southern Africa.

Jangly I referenced that, as they were detecting 20,000 a day previously, then detecting 1000 now suggests that prevalence is not that high - otherwise they would've been detecting the higher numbers the same as before.

Malawi isn’t one of our six redlisted countries….

I'm not certain of the current travel testing rules but I think they are now lfts. This is a worry as they won't be sequenced so recent cases entering the UK won't have been picked up through any travel screening that was previously happening. Please correct me if I'm wrong here.

We know there are numerous holes in the travel testing system anyway….

Eg this one, just this morning,

twitter.com/adamjschwarz/status/1464150235714932742?s=21

Meanwhile, some very good news re booster protection:
twitter.com/paulmainwood/status/1463877974340558855?s=21

I've got a question about this graph - we're told vaccine effectiveness is higher at younger age groups 'cos of immune response, but this graph shows that the vaccine effectiveness in younger age groups is worse - ie it almost certainly can't just be measuring vaccine effectiveness. So what is it really measuring?

Or if it is measuring vaccine effectiveness why is the vaccine so much less effective in 18-40 year olds than 60+ ? (purely looking at pre-boosted numbers) And what does it say for effectiveness in under 18's ?

Also very good news re vaccines in Pregnant women

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/25/covid-vaccine-does-not-raise-risk-stillbirths-complications/

The Covid vaccine does not raise the risk of stillbirth or other complications, a major study has concluded, as experts urged pregnant women to get the jab.

Data from more than 355,000 British women who gave birth between January and August this year show that the stillbirth rate was 3.35 per 1,000 for vaccinated women and 3.6 per 1,000 for those unvaccinated.

I think that the problem with comparing the actual shape of those graphs between age groups is that they measure percentage decline since August this year and that will mean very different things for the different age groups in terms of time since second vaccine. If you'd expect the decline to plateau after a bit then it's not surprising that older age groups are showing less decline in the period than younger ones.
Also different vaccine mixes of course.

[quote JanglyBeads]Eg this one, just this morning,

twitter.com/adamjschwarz/status/1464150235714932742?s=21[/quote]
Terrifying

Although apparently now case discovery has been announced in Belgium also (two): it looks like we could already have many (?) cases here from the rugby and other SA travel.

Source
twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1464201106356150278?s=21

@JanglyBeads

Although apparently now case discovery has been announced in Belgium also (two): it looks like we could already have many (?) cases here from the rugby and other SA travel.

I'm keeping an eye on any indication of surge testing locally. Huge spikes in Guildford/South West Surrey, where we have large South African communities, and earlier in the year had surge testing for the original South Africa variant.

If you'd expect the decline to plateau after a bit

Here's some graphs of the various studies:
www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/11/science/vaccine-waning-immunity.html
None show a plateau, so I'm not sure there's evidence for it.

I do agree though that the change in effectiveness from August complicates it, although tbh makes the graph even more dubious as a comparison of vaccine effectiveness!

Huge spikes in Guildford/South West Surrey, where we have large South African communities, and earlier in the year had surge testing for the original South Africa variant.

Wouldn’t this be picked up pretty quickly due to PCR test drop out? I’m pretty sure it has that indicator but can’t remember where I saw it

Yes you’re right Marsha.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/rich-countries-could-have-prevented-new-covid-variant-say-experts

I wonder if this might convince the west to actually listen to the WHO and others’ calls for sharing vaccines?

Interesting also to note that vax hesitancy in SA is higher amongst whites than blacks. Anyone know anything about that?

I don't know if it's as simple as just rich countries not getting vaccines to poorer countries.

I have spoken to several people with families in poorer countries who say that while the vaccine is available there and free, people have to pay to be given the injection. Clearly it isn't OK for HCPs from richer countries to fly in and run vaccination clinics unasked, being seen to take jobs from the locals. But it does mean that where people can't pay, or would rather not, vaccines are going out of date rather than getting into arms.

I'm involved with a charity in another country. We have been trying to get our 'clients' vaccinated for months, but we just can't get it arranged.

Yes I know there can be lots of barriers, but surely not having vaccines is a major one?

Sirfred, Pfizer speaking about vaccine tweaks

twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1464251996630831109?s=21