Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@BigWoollyJumpers

Need to define if it’s protection from symptomatic COVID or from serious illness though, I think what I was reading was the former but I confess I’m not sure

The data is for "symptomatic infection". AZ (and Pfizer) is still in the 90/95% protection against hospitalisation and death, which I would suggest, is the most important criteria for the majority of people.

This is key I agree

Does anything suggest this drops for AZ?

[quote JanglyBeads]Fascinating data from Ireland on transmission

twitter.com/drgregkelly/status/1459705781968728065?s=21[/quote]
That’s really, really interesting, thanks.

Wasn't AZ 30+, and current boosters 50+?

So 30-50 year olds seem to be in a bit of a black hole unless the booster programme rolls smoothly down to them once their 6 month anniversary of 2nd vaccination falls due.

As a 50 something in a fairly efficient area, I am due my booster at the start of December, so I would imagine that a quick policy decision and sorting out any delivery / rollout / app issues should be possible in time for the bulk of 30-50 year olds to be boosted in an orderly manner.

Well they need to get their thinking caps on regarding the roll down in age groups, my 6 months from jab #2 is 12 December

Scotland has now had 5 days in row, of over 3K positive results. Increases since the start of the month in all age groups under 65. With the highest rates still in 0-14.
Vaccines in 12-15 have almost ground to a halt at 56% done. On the plus side 21.7% of the entire population has had a booster.

This is from The Times on Tuesday:

Coronavirus levels in Scotland’s sewage system have risen by a fifth in a week, fuelling concern that people are not testing enough.

Article

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/54f9ef5a-40de-11ec-96bf-de0821791f3f?shareToken=8e91b28a7bcb7ae53e541a5d8b887ebe

@Perihelion

Scotland has now had 5 days in row, of over 3K positive results. Increases since the start of the month in all age groups under 65. With the highest rates still in 0-14. Vaccines in 12-15 have almost ground to a halt at 56% done. On the plus side 21.7% of the entire population has had a booster.

COP? Crowded hotels etc can't have helped?

This BBC article goes through the waning of protection in the different vaccines.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59260294

I do believe this article is a little misleading, it's graphing effectiveness of the two vaccines as if they are from the same studies, but they're not, they're from different studies done at different times and different places, and with different methodologies on the test isn't it? But of course it's unreferenced so we actually don't have a clue what it's referring to.

What we do know, is protection against infection of all the vaccines is poor after short time scales (or possibly against different variants, that hasn't actually been tested 'cos it can't be)

[quote oneglassandpuzzled]This is from The Times on Tuesday:

Coronavirus levels in Scotland’s sewage system have risen by a fifth in a week, fuelling concern that people are not testing enough.

Article

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/54f9ef5a-40de-11ec-96bf-de0821791f3f?shareToken=8e91b28a7bcb7ae53e541a5d8b887ebe[/quote]
It's all the shite people were talking at COP26 only to let China and India keep getting away with huge emissions....

Well some studies seem to show that the MRNA vaccines are holding up much better than AZ. The AZ reduction rates appear much more severe in comparison to pfizer. But then is that because those who received the AZ vaccines were more vulnerable in general? There was also a much higher distribution of AZ in the early days as pfizer had the supply and storage issues.

Cases in Leicestershire and Northamptonshire seem to be rising sharply.

Sweden are taking yet another unique approach which I find puzzling. Now if you are showing symptoms, you are no longer required to test. The advice is just to stay home until you feel better. It does seem at odds to what we are discovering about waning immunity. Their cases, hospitalisations and deaths are low but for how long?

Meant to say you are no longer required to test if double vaccinated!

@mrshoho

Sweden are taking yet another unique approach which I find puzzling. Now if you are showing symptoms, you are no longer required to test. The advice is just to stay home until you feel better. It does seem at odds to what we are discovering about waning immunity. Their cases, hospitalisations and deaths are low but for how long?

What's their form like for staying home if under the weather in general? Better than us I suspect.

@mrshoho

Sweden are taking yet another unique approach which I find puzzling. Now if you are showing symptoms, you are no longer required to test. The advice is just to stay home until you feel better. It does seem at odds to what we are discovering about waning immunity. Their cases, hospitalisations and deaths are low but for how long?

Interesting we’ll get there eventually I suppose.

Yes I'd say their employment rights and benefits are far more generous. A different country to UK in every way but they have been critised for their earlier response to covid.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4401685-Data-Stats-Daily-Numbers-started-14th-November-2021

New thread ready to go

Oneglassandpuzzeled thanks for that link and share token.
7 day average test positivity is now at 9.7%, which bares out that there's not enough testing to find cases. I wonder when the Scotgov got the sewage results, as it now makes sense why there were mutterings about more restrictions if more folk weren't vaccinated, before the PCR cases were clearly showing a rise.
COP26 might play a part, although Glasgow isn't looking too bad, but there's increases in Highland, Moray, Aberdeenshire etc....places to go for the October holiday?
Has there been results from the English sewage?

@lonelyplanet

Cases in Leicestershire and Northamptonshire seem to be rising sharply.

something for the new thread

and seriously everyone racing towards the thread end on a late Sunday afternoon! Believe me parmesan roast partnerships don't cook themselves, so please consider timing for the next thread

@mrshoho

Meant to say you are no longer required to test if double vaccinated!

So there will be no record of how many double vaccinated people catch covid and how this effects them? Hmm...

So there will be no record of how many double vaccinated people catch covid and how this effects them?

This is how flu has been traced here - if you're not sick enough to need treatment, it's untracked, I don't think this is revolutionary, or particularly a negative. You still discover the cases that make people ill, and they are the ones that matter, and you save the cost and trouble of trying to identify every case - which isn't going to happen anyway as too many people have no symptoms, or too few symptoms for their own desire to test.

It's also simpler advice and likely advice that some people would follow when they wouldn't follow test advice, as being forced to stay home is still worse than choosing to stay home but walking around the streets early in the morning when few others are around.

Does it mutate more that flu though and how do they genome test flu to make the latest vaccines?

@FiftyShadesofMeredith

Does it mutate more that flu though and how do they genome test flu to make the latest vaccines?

My understanding is that, theoretically at least, Covid is more stable than flu and has a different structure that means it should mutate less/more slowly.