Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Latest Sage meeting minutes published today.

www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-96-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-14-october-2021

and

SPI-B, SPI-M and EMG: Considerations for potential impact of Plan B measures, 13 October 2021

www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-b-spi-m-and-emg-considerations-for-potential-impact-of-plan-b-measures-13-october-2021

Thank you @boys3

Thanks boys.

Wish we knew more about what poo monitoring has contributed so far!

Thanks OP.

Boys3 Once again, thanks

Thanks boys.

Thanks!
Does anyone have a link to reinfection numbers? I keep hearing this mentioned more and more. As they're not included in the daily numbers, how many are there really? Anecdotally this board seems to have so many with covid for a 2nd time.

There is currently a monthly report containing reinfection data. The Twitter thread below is from someone who works on these reports and she has also tweeted saying they are working on getting reinfection numbers included in daily figures but the number of reinfections do remain very low.

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1451199718214696985?s=21

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027644/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w42_v2.pdf

Proof of my dismay at the situation in my schools that I'm back watching this thread.

Place marking as usual ...

No Bizawit not willing to let you mislead people without reply.

Positivity rate in hospital testing is much lower than in the community twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1451295821237002254/photo/2 and hospitals will not always do a PCR test if they know someone has had covid in the last 90 days. So the "it's previous infection" line doesnt hold.

With rising numbers of people in ventilation beds and plenty of anecdotal reports on these boards of people experiencing breathing difficulties you dont get to claim covid is a cold either - really thought that had been comprehensively rubbished by now. Delta produces a higher viral load and that makes people sicker than the original variant. After adjusting for age and sex you are twice as likely to need hospital admission with Delta.

For some of the double vaccinated it will be mild, a large majority wont need emergency care but some of them will still feel pretty rough.

From the SPI-M:

(waning immunity) is apparent 10 weeks after the second dose, particularly in elderly and vulnerable groups(38). Time limiting the validity of vaccine-only certificates according to the date of last vaccination could be considered

So boosters every 3 months and passes to go anywhere?

They don't actually really support vaccine passport, but are even current vaccinated non vulnerably people really supportive of boosters that frequently?

Can anyone here help me make sense of comparing the transmission tables from the PHE surveillance report?

I’m looking at two consecutive reports - so transmission between weeks 36-39 compared with weeks 37- 40.

On weeks 36-39 rates of infection per 100,000 seem almost identical between vaccinated and unvaccinated. I read a thread from John Burn-Murdoch, which said the way data was collected over-estimated unvaccinated numbers which skewered the results.

However when you look at the following report for weeks 37-40, the rates for vaccinated cases is almost 3 times higher than unvaccinated in some age brackets? Can the poor data collection method that John identifies really be responsible for that???

Link to john’s thread: mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1448601433989947392

Sorry, tables actually compare weeks 36-39 with weeks 38-41, so two week difference.

@Reastie your question at the end of the last thread is on my mind, too.

I know that in this country we've been using LFTs to check we're not infectious pre-event or pre-activity for a while now, but it looks like they haven't been approved yet in the USA due to not being as accurate as PCR at identifying positivity. However, this article makes the point that the way that LFTs work makes them very effective (80% I think it said) at identifying if someone is infectious (including pre- or early into covid symptoms), whereas PCR (when done right) is more definitive that you are, or have recently, been positive for covid.

www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/10/22/lateral-flow-tests-detect-most-people-at-risk-of-transmitting-covid-19/

Can anyone remember or do one of you wise data people know whether the LFTs were originally designed to test asymptomatic people or to be a 'general' covid test? I hope that makes sense!

New to this thread, but professional data wrangler (in another field) and long time mner

@IrrelevantNameChange the rate per 100,000 statistics are for the whole population. The rates appear higher amongst the vaccinated population because they account for a higher proportion of the total population. If you work through the numbers, the proportion of unvaccinated people infected with covid in the 40-49 age group is ~6% (compared to ~1% for the vaccinated population).

Thanks @moimichme , thought my musing had got lost!

V interesting on Spi B models and how to take them (but some on here will understand more than I do):

twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1451835747607142407?s=21

*SPI M not B

@TaggieData Can you provide a worked example of how you got those figures? (1% of 40-49 year olds of vaccinated is double the current last 7 day rate, so a 1% rate in vaccinated seems unlikely as that would have to mean also a 1% rate in unvaccinated)

Do we have a source for those graphs, knowing what denominator they're using is crucial here really.

Going from the week 36 to week 39 table in the post above:

Total number of vaccinated cases = 1281 * 101094 / 100000 = 1295

Vaccinated % rate = 100 * 1295 / 78643 = 1.6%

You are right that I may have the denominator wrong as I am not sure how to interpret the unlinked and partially vaccinated cases. Happy to stand corrected if I have interpreted the table wrongly.

FT charts demonstrating how a policy failure brought us to this point:

If you're going for a largely vaccine-only strategy your vaccine roll out needs to be better than this.

FT charts demonstrating how a policy failure brought us to this point 2:

If the boosters had been begun sooner and were being done faster the "vaccine effect" seen in the over 80s would be spread throughout more age groups and be dampening this surge.

Week on week increase has been slowing for multiple days now. Less than 5% today to early for half term effects to be taking place also.

Places in the North have clearly peaked and some declining. Just need the southwest to follow suit over the next week or so.