Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I didn’t want covid to hit during school time but we wouldn’t test during half term unless symptomatic

Whereas school asks twice a week

But regulus parents aren’t going to want kids at home for ten days in term time?

@JanglyBeads

But regulus parents aren’t going to want kids at home for ten days in term time?

Sorry should have clarified, Secondary children. Parents not needed for childcare and teenagers canny enough to realise.

Sorry should have clarified, Secondary children. Parents not needed for childcare and teenagers canny enough to realise

But this would show clearly by a change in pattern between this age group and others - do we have that?

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

42,408 cases and 195 deaths today.

It's not going down much is it?

On the face of it, right now, it just looks like we had a reprieve more or less around half term.

Fingers crossed vaccines for teens and boosters will help a bit overall.

@Regulus

I wouldn't underestimate the avoidance of testing when something fun is happening (ie half term) compared to the desire for ten days at home once school returns.

Plus, I'm sure people take more precautions on the lead up to something like a holiday or festival so they don't test positive and miss out.

I think you are doing the vast majority of teenagers a real disservice there.

If it’s not asked for we don’t do it. I don’t think it would be that unusual.

Although are there figures on this

My comment was about regulus' insinuations marsha...

@Piggywaspushed

My comment was about regulus' insinuations marsha...

Can't share the data for obvious reasons but assure you this is evident in my MAT. Our teenagers are amazing resilient and hardworking, however from many conversations with said teens the high rate of reported LFTs reflect this. Interestingly from surveys and communication we find our students are very willing to take LFTs to protect others (as in those at risk) in fact keener than the staff population, however when mixing with peers the fear of missing out outweighs the desire to test.

Anyway digressing and away from data.

OK , I read it as you suggesting they were faking LFTs to get out of school...

@Piggywaspushed

OK , I read it as you suggesting they were faking LFTs to get out of school...

Apologies then. Certainly not faking, but happy to test with the understanding that a positive means 10 days off, as in 10 days isolation is preferable in term time than during holidays where they may miss out.

Anyone seen the figures for Germany today? Cases have rocketed to 50K+ and deaths 221. Fingers crossed this is just a numbers down the back of the sofa situation, and not an indication of direction of travel for Western Europe

@Saisong

Anyone seen the figures for Germany today? Cases have rocketed to 50K+ and deaths 221. Fingers crossed this is just a numbers down the back of the sofa situation, and not an indication of direction of travel for Western Europe

Given similarly high rates in Austria, Poland, and the Netherlands, I fear it's more than a blip.

@Saisong

Anyone seen the figures for Germany today? Cases have rocketed to 50K+ and deaths 221. Fingers crossed this is just a numbers down the back of the sofa situation, and not an indication of direction of travel for Western Europe

What's even more shocking are the death rates in Eastern Europe... Bulgaria for instance.... it's in the midst of its worst wave yet and if it's population were scaled up to the U.K. it would have had 250,000 deaths!

In Croatia at least, there is a lot of concurrent flu, flu is likely to increase deaths: www.politico.eu/article/eus-disease-center-warns-of-possible-severe-flu-season-ahead/amp/.

Latest excess deaths, Bulgaria has even overtaken Peru now, that's a really high proportion of population: www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker.

I do wonder how much damage all the silly behaviour over AZ vaccine has impacted the vaccine uptake in many countries.

I think Bulgaria was one who stopped using it, at least for a time.

Up again.

Variant technical briefing is out:

t.co/Thg1Sv8PYR?amp=1

Of note:
"The Delta sublineage AY.4.2 (VUI-21OCT-01) accounts for a slowly increasing
proportion of cases in the UK. It accounts for 11.2% of Delta cases in the most recent
complete week of sequencing (17 October 2021 to 23 October 2021). In more recent
weeks, sequencing data is incomplete, however AY.4.2 accounts for 13.0% of Delta
cases in the week 24 October 2021 to 30 October 2021 and 14.7% in the week 31
October 2021 to 6 November 2021."

(I was set to fly to Bulgaria next week. Thankfully not happening.) Bulgarian colleagues are telling me that despite everything they have to be in the office full time, wfh is not allowed (in general) and vacc hesitancy is ripe. Especially that anything russian is suspicious by default and the majority of vaccines at first was of course sputnik. Now even extra incentives are hardly working.
But still nobody in the meeting rooms has a mask on, they just don't care.
In Hungary at least most companies are encouraging ppl to wfh, even though some have already applied the only vaccinated can go to the office policy (at least some bank HQs I know of).

Interesting observations on covid in children:
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1459229202050387973

And more re child deaths here, including this great bar chart:
twitter.com/lawtontri/status/1459066069121966080?s=21

Big jump in case numbers again today. Le sigh. Hopefully this is just due to some localised spikes that should resolve again relatively quick?

Very depressing. Was hoping they'd drop for a while longer