Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Place marking

@PrincessNutNuts

FT charts demonstrating how a policy failure brought us to this point 2:

If the boosters had been begun sooner and were being done faster the "vaccine effect" seen in the over 80s would be spread throughout more age groups and be dampening this surge.

To what extent is this an artefact of the initial success of the vaccine programme, though? Do we have more people who are five months post dose two without a booster because, five months ago, a much greater percentage of our population had been vaccinated? Or is it that we're slow on boosters?

I suspect the former, but have no sense of where the rest of Europe is with booster doses.

Motorina, look at @PrincessNutNuts’ second post to see graphs which show we are way behind Europe.

I am not sure we are really "behind" Europe. It looks like we are further along in the pandemic curve. We vaccinated people earlier so we have got to deal with waning immunity before other countires but our trajectories on logarithmic scale look surprisingly similar.

FWIW, it is pretty certain that cases in some regions (e.g. North West) are now falling and yes, the peak occurred way before half-term. South West might have turned the corner a couple of days ago but we need to see more data.

Re: boosters - my personal opinion is that we are actually doing a pretty decent job. We could have done some things better (e.g. we should have launched online bookings weeks ago) but we can no longer throw all the healthcare resources at boosters as we did with vaccines. My GP neighbour who was running one of the local vaccination centres in spring-early summer strongly believes he is now more needed in his surgery to deal with backlog of non COVID related cases. I tend to trust his opinion but, of course, it is not data.

I think

@PrincessNutNuts

FT charts demonstrating how a policy failure brought us to this point:

If you're going for a largely vaccine-only strategy your vaccine roll out needs to be better than this.

Delurking to ask if you would please add a link? I find it helpful to see the full article as well as screenshots. Thank you :)

@JanglyBeads

Motorina, look at *@PrincessNutNuts*’ second post to see graphs which show we are way behind Europe.

It's the second post I'm looking at.

It shows the numbers of people who are BOTH 5 months post dose two AND haven't had a booster.

On May 24th, 34% of the UK population was double vaccinated. 15% of the EU population was. (Source: Ourworldindata).

That means, at absolute most, only 15% of the EU population could be 5 months post dose two and be included in that data set. Which is not much more than the rates on the graph @PrincessNutNuts posted.

I don't think it shows that the UK is lagging badly on boosters. I think it shows that not many people in the EU are five months post dose two yet.

Ourworldindata again... it shows that, as of today, 1.65% of the EU population has had a booster dose. The figures for the four countries in @PrincessNutNuts's chart are:

France - 3.34%
Germany - 1.71%
Italy - 1.47%
Spain - 1%

Frustratingly, I can't find a comparible UK figure but, as of 15th October, the NHS were claiming 3.1 million boosters given (www.england.nhs.uk/2021/10/nhs-delivers-over-three-million-covid-boosters-in-first-month/)

That's 4.56% of the population.

We're not 'way behind Europe'. We're way ahead.

John Roberts reporting 4.5 million booster doses in England (not UK) as of Friday. That's 8% of population. As oppossed to 1.65% for the EU as a whole.

Using the graph at the bottom of the previous page to say we're lagging behind the EU is seriously misleading.

@sirfredfredgeorge they are from the weekly PHE covid vaccine surveillance reports:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1023849/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_40.pdf

Thanks @TaggieData for taking the time to explain. I did wonder if it was to do with percentage of the population vaxxed/unvaxxed, but then I thought the whole point of presenting figures per 100,000 was to avoid rates of uptake skewering the figures and to allow for direct comparisons? Isn’t that what happened at the recent press conference - the deaths and hospitalisations between vaxxed/unvaxxed (taken from these reports) were presented per 100,000 to show the efficacy of the vaccine in preventing serious illness or death.

If what you are saying is correct, wouldn’t that mean that you would expect the effect of the vaccine on a largely vaccinated population to show a much bigger difference in numbers between the vaxxed/unvaxxed in relation to hospital admissions and deaths? I’m not sure how the tables in these reports can be simultaneously be showing the vaccine is good at preventing infection and good at preventing admissions/deaths if what you are saying is correct?

I dont think you can compare uk to eu as they used mostly pz. Az decreases from 3m. So boosters would be needed sooner.
Our area is very highly vaccinatined but still now 1k per 100k.
2 relatives had both caught covid (mildly) within the 5m since vax.
Have the cases of 39-16yo been compared to EU? As those cases might be more comparable.
A 95% effective vax would rarely see both parents infected. And our lack of family quarantining would be based on it being unlikely for household contacts to get it but with unvaxxed kids and az being maybe 60/70% effective then most families will surely have at least ond member back at work or school who then comes down with it.
Another family 5/5 got it. Including 2 presumably vaxxed adults.3 different school years plus activities then thats an ourbreak on its own.
Vaccines are effective but even with say pz if 1/20 get it and they were family contacts with no masks at school or activites that surely still an r over 1?

"Az decreases from 3m. "

Do you have a source for that? All I can find is the research from Oxford University that found immunity from AZ a year after vaccination.

@amicissimma

"Az decreases from 3m. "

Do you have a source for that? All I can find is the research from Oxford University that found immunity from AZ a year after vaccination.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58322882

This discusses the two studies. They both drop, over time, AZ from a lower initial base, but seemingly then more stable than Pfizer which has a more dramatic drop.

Ref previous thread and running club evening meal. Attached is a table plan showing pcr test results for anyone interested.

Wow 6k drop week on. Nice surprise there. Obviously need a few more of hem before any optimism

@Stilltalkstotrees

Ref previous thread and running club evening meal. Attached is a table plan showing pcr test results for anyone interested.

Wow! Which of the tables was the suspected "zero" case sitting on?

The surveillance data on vaccinated vs unvaccinated cases is using NIMS for the denominator, this is too unreliable to say anything about anywhere I'm afraid the error bars are simply too wide.

One thing that is interesting in the report is the antibody testing in blood donors, we can probably conclude that blood donors are more likely vaccinated (although I'm sure not unique) and more likely to take other light measures, but also more likely healthy and free to go out and about. but the graph shows all antibodies steady since week 31 at the very high 90%, but infection only antibodies rising from ~16% to ~19% since that week, so maybe 3% of vaccinated blood donors infected in nine weeks, that does feel quite high to me.

@Tuba437

Wow 6k drop week on. Nice surprise there. Obviously need a few more of hem before any optimism

Good to know, hopefully it will continue

Hi, do we think the north east has peaked or is close to peaking?

@pussycatlickinglollyices patient zero marked. Although we have suspicions re another two who developed symptoms very quickly (48 hours, everyone else was 72+)

Surely reinfection rates are inaccurate as so many people could not get tested at the beginning?

@Stilltalkstotrees I suppose there was "mingling" before/after the meal, so that may account for the spread on the other tables.

In other news, my area is still over 1000 per 100k. Teacher NDN said they were on their knees by the end of Fri, staff and pupils dropping like flies.

Suggestion that the testing problems are still ongoing.

twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1452285348453752840