will covid ever go away

[essexgirl58]

As of today the covid figures have topped 50,000.

I blame the Government for relaxing the wearing of masks. Even on public transport where the wearing of masks is compulsory, many people are not adhering to this and nobody takes any notice.

Venues have been opened such as cinemas and gyms and people do not have to wear a mask.

Even places of worship are relaxed and they say oh you do not have to wear a mask. There is also no limit on the numbers at funerals.

Roll on the winter

Venues have been opened such as cinemas and gyms

So you think these should still be shut?

No it was never going to - it was always too infectious and not severe enough (because as awful as it isnt). We have eradicated one virus and that is smallpox this was always going to become endemic.

The question has always been how much damage would it inflict on that journey. But as time goes on and it isnt a new virus it will become like other viruses. But that will I think include deaths each year.

Surely it will gradually become less severe and die out in time. Especially as more people catch it or are vaccinated and become immune.

Everything is open. And so it should be. Nightclubs, theatres, cinemas, gyms. If you think popping on a mask for 5 minutes when you’re in the supermarket will have any impact then go ahead. It’s all down to personal responsibility and personal risk now.

I don’t feel the need to go to a nightclub but would be relaxed in a busy pub. It seems like paying lip service to masks if I don’t wear one in a pub for hours and hours but pop one on wandering round a supermarket for 10 minutes.

It's like measles and the flu. It will never go away. We'll probably need an annual booster shot to deal with it. But if that reduced the chances of hospitalization and dying, I'll happily take it.

They should be N95s, like Germany. And to be effective everybody needs to actually wear them.*

See this is answer you get if you point out rising cases in masked countries, apparently wrong sort of masks and then if we wear them and cases rise, the answer will be people aren't wearing them properly.

Masks aren't this big solution people think they are.

@Toddlerteaplease

Surely it will gradually become less severe and die out in time. Especially as more people catch it or are vaccinated and become immune.

I dint think SARS-COV2 has any particular evolutionary pressure to become milder. It's infectious before people show symptoms, so it doesn't matter if it makes people very ill or even kills them rapidly, as the move to the next host is already done.

But there might be an advantage for variants which produce a higher viral load, or which can evade previous immunity to some extent.

No it won't

Hth

^ - Twat alert

The point of masks is not to make it go away because, as you have rightly pointed out, it's not going anywhere. The point of masks and other measures such as household isolation is to slow down the spread so it stays manageable

Exactly. That people - even seemingly those in charge- STILL don't get that is depressing as fuck. Just about everyone told us that dropping ALL mitigations was insane and funnily enough, they were right.

Well Germany had a huge spike in cases today too despite its n95 masks so it might not be a great example for long either.

Of course it won't "go away". I can't believe people still think this, but apparently they do. They're all over local news sites FB pages as well as on this thread for a start...

No it won’t go away but it will be different

It will peak like Scotland then be easier to manage

Then in time it will be easier still - see Sarah Gilbert

They've really got a lot of people convinced that masks are this magic thing which stops all illnesses

Who thinks that? I don't know anyone one who does, just ones who think that even one form of mitigation would be better than none. Which it would.

All those saying masks are useless- you'd be happy with me operating on you with no mask would you? I don't think so somehow.

@Shanghaisprize

They've really got a lot of people convinced that masks are this magic thing which stops all illnesses

Who thinks that? I don't know anyone one who does, just ones who think that even one form of mitigation would be better than none. Which it would.

All those saying masks are useless- you'd be happy with me operating on you with no mask would you? I don't think so somehow.

Loads of people say that, all over the place. You see it on here all the time.

And the old analogy with an operating table is meaningless. Surgeons wear surgical masks to stop fluids (blood, snot, spit, faecal matter) being exchanged between themselves and the patient. They don't wear them to prevent aerosol transmitted viruses being spread.

@Chessie678

I think it's really unfortunate that masks have been such a focal point. We have a natural experiment whereby we can compare Scotland, NI and Wales (all of which have kept compulsory masks) and England (which hasn't) and we can see that rates have been comparable or higher in Wales, Scotland and NI during the time that masks remained compulsory. There was an article in the news today comparing Wales and England and Wales is currently doing significantly worse than England on every measure, including cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

Of course it's possible that masks are making some difference in Scotland, Wales and NI in that rates there would be even worse without them (though there is no real evidence for that) but it is at least clear that masks alone are not enough to stabilise or decrease cases.

I suppose people focus on them because they are such a visual symbol of your allegiances in the pandemic and they show that you are taking personal action to "stop the spread" but it seems likely that other factors, like population immunity, are so much more significant as to make the wearing or not wearing of masks essentially irrelevant.

It seems likely that Wales and Scotland have recently seen higher cases because they had a lower base level of immunity and, in Scotland's case, it is ahead of England because schools returned sooner.

I was thinking about my day and the interactions which would have involved a mask had they been mandatory were walking into a petrol station for 1 min and talking to someone behind a screen, walking to my table at a cafe (30 secs) and then taking mask off for an hour to eat and chat to friends; popping into corner shop for 2 mins etc. Meanwhile, my toddler is at nursery licking other children's toys etc and then comes home and wipes his snot on me. The chance of wearing a cloth mask preventing me passing on covid in the short periods I was wearing it just seems negligible. I would be upset to have to wear them at baby groups again though because they prevent you communicating properly with your child and anyone else (and I have terrible morning sickness and wearing a mask makes me want to throw up at the moment). Meanwhile if you are sitting in close proximity to someone at work for hours it seems unlikely that a mask would be sufficient to stop you passing covid.

Beautifully put @Chessie678

I wish more people realised this. The obsessing over masks is ridiculous!

The case numbers are not really all that alarming. Talk of 100k a day is wide of the mark.

Almost 50% of the current cases are kids. That is not sustainable - the MRC estimates that about 75% of them have now had the virus, and they're being infected at a rate of about 7% a week. This will burn out over the next two to three weeks.

Cases in kids will drop sharply once they reach a rough HIT, and overall cases will decline after that.

Then they'll go up and down a bit on an ongoing basis, depending on various parameters like rate of immunity waning, rate of boosters, precise HIT threshold in winter etc.

Scotland, NI and Wales are likely experiencing some "catch up" cases, because England was hit harder earlier and has a greater number of people with natural immunity.

Masks probably work a bit, but don't make a hugely material difference at this stage of the game.

This is going endemic. Everyone will get it, probably multiple times. Get used to it, start living your life again, the background rate of covid is likely to be significant (like a bad flu year), probably forever.

@Shanghaisprize

They've really got a lot of people convinced that masks are this magic thing which stops all illnesses

Who thinks that? I don't know anyone one who does, just ones who think that even one form of mitigation would be better than none. Which it would.

All those saying masks are useless- you'd be happy with me operating on you with no mask would you? I don't think so somehow.

Surgeons put on their mask and that is it. No touching it until they are done with the operation. No pulling it down to blow their nose, no shoving it in a pocket and reusing it for weeks. They also wear a sterile gown, gloves, use sterile instruments, and practice aseptic technique etc So, please stop the comparisons with the months old mask made from an old skirt, with what surgeons use. Unless, you would be happy with a surgeon treating a mask the way someone in Tesco does.

**They should be N95s, like Germany. And to be effective everybody needs to actually wear them.

How are we supposed to manage that with secondary school children? Should they never be removed? What about lunch times, drinking?

Even if some of the mitigations did work, they’re just too leaky. We have to accept that the virus is now part of life.

A PP said that at some point the virus will be mild for the vast, vast majority of people. Seriously? Have you checked the IFR?

Surgeons wear surgical masks to stop fluids (blood, snot, spit, faecal matter) being exchanged between themselves and the patient

Utter bollocks.

www.cochrane.org/CD002929/WOUNDS_disposable-surgical-face-masks-preventing-surgical-wound-infection-clean-surgery

All those saying masks are useless- you'd be happy with me operating on you with no mask would you? I don't think so somehow.

I keep seeing this utterly stupid comparison all time, so you don't get a completely sterile environment with sterile equipment, with air pumping in ect operating on organs is the same as Bob or Marie going to the shop.

*Surgeons put on their mask and that is it. No touching it until they are done with the operation(

More bollocks.

No pulling it down to blow their nose, no shoving it in a pocket and reusing it for weeks

Ok - well, just to let you know, a lot of us aren't that dirty and unhygienic. We wear them as per guidelines. Hence still SOME mitigation instead of the fuck all we currently have.

Have you even seen a surgeon touch their mask once it is on? After they have washed their hands twice, and gloved/gowned?

Interesting post @Dissimilitude Please can you explain to a non scientist what HIT means in your context?

Thanks

[quote Shanghaisprize]Surgeons wear surgical masks to stop fluids (blood, snot, spit, faecal matter) being exchanged between themselves and the patient

Utter bollocks.

www.cochrane.org/CD002929/WOUNDS_disposable-surgical-face-masks-preventing-surgical-wound-infection-clean-surgery[/quote]
Have you even read this? It does not really prove your point.

We conclude that there is no clear evidence that wearing disposable face masks affects the likelihood of wound infections developing after surgery

I keep seeing this utterly stupid comparison all time

It is not a stupid comparison. Masks in theatres are a form of mitigation. As would be the ones worn in society by those of us with half decent hygiene standards, especially in confined spaces. Therefore masks in some situations at present would equal one form of mitigation for very little inconvenience for people. Still better than none.

I am so sick of hearing the 'face nappy' and 'personal risk assessment' brigade spouting utter bollocks such as the above in order to justify their selfishness.