Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Any ideas why Trafford's rates are shooting up? They're 30% up week on week and much different from the other GMan boroughs.
https://trafforddatalab.shinyapps.io/trafford_covid-19/

finally these are the English council areas with the highest rates in the most recent week - 3 day lag applied.

The main column show the 7 day rate per 100,000

The final columns shows the absolute number of cases as reported last Wednesday for Monday and Tuesday spec dates; and then today for the last two days, and finally the difference - negative being a lower figure in the current week.

These are 1-25. Kettering still with the highest rate but looks to have peaked.

then 26-50

then the 25 areas with the lowest latest rate

and 26-50 for lowest rates

Thanks boys. Good news if right about Kettering. DS on day 12 but not really well enough to go back to school yet. He and I (day 5) both haven’t eaten properly for last two days.

Well below - ie around half - the lower estimate of last SPI-M model, and close to eight times lower than the mid-point of the central estimate

We need an update on their models - 'cos obviously one of the positives of more cases earlier, was fewer cases later (as the waning protection found themselves with fewer to infect)

So if we had any faith in the SPI-M modelling, then the fact they're undershooting now would mean an even larger winter wave with easier spreading due to more potential vectors.

Personally I have zero faith in SPI-M modelling, but...

@sirfredfredgeorge surely every week without a surge is great? More boosters in arms etc?

uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-readying-payment-systems-charge-182405453.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cDovL20uZmFjZWJvb2suY29t&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACwwvcPnW6tH3dJEQVMcfglSXT3nGO0TO-E3fuAfi4v3viXOJu4xrVhAYfH3HA_2rn_JL1RQ58VVjTOwUxMqhkWaUUI_wvp9cCrs39E_WrxqumgYdZOiFRic1aTCU6TsInkTNXNVQjg3jwzBWurEBotAKMhmeCtoFNahwlytLNH4

We may be charged for LFDs by January

this returns to Nottingham and Manchester, both of which saw a considerable increase as Uni terms started last year.

This is just the 15-19 rate - which I recognise does cover more than just uni students - and compares Aug-Dec rate per 100,000 for last year and this year so far.

Of course there are universities in other cities and towns, and suggestions for other places to compare welcomed.

However taking just these two the difference between this year and last year is..................significant.

as the 2021 rates are quite difficult to read on that graph, given the scale needed to show the spike last year, this is just 2021 August to date. Which does show a recent , but very limited increase in rate.

and as all students are not freshers this is Nottingham's 20-24 age band rate comp.

Great!

At the end of this article - Susan Hopkins of UKHSA says they’re looking into the pos LFD / neg PCR issue:

inews.co.uk/news/covid-lateral-flow-tests-negative-pcr-1236141

This frames it as just in the SW but I’ve seen people from elsewhere reporting it too.

One suggestion on Kit Yates’ threads is that it’s because the newer nasal only LFDs are being used (perhaps more so in SW where a lot of the reports are coming from?). They are easier to use therefore the results are more accurate. However if that were correct in these cases surely that would imply that PCRs are less accurate than we thought, all along?

Yeah, that makes zero sense...

Here's an interesting new source of data we could keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks: University of Birmingham's testing results
intranet.birmingham.ac.uk/staff/coronavirus/test-and-trace.aspx

Last week showing less than 1:1,000 of their 30,000 students testing positive (they went back on the 20th September). Let's see how it moves. In theory they should all be LFTing twice a week and PCRing if they get a positive.

Hmm could be interesting but they don’t seem to give any indication (for perhaps understandable reasons) as to what percentage of their students and staff are actually taking up the offer of testing, so difficult to judge the figures.

Yes it'll be useful for trends but not necessarily for absolute prevalence. In theory if students are being asked to do the bi-weekly LFT testing they should get a pretty high capture rate - similar to schools.

Define “pretty high”? What we’re the percentages testing last term?

Just higher than the general public who have no requirement to test regularly.

Ah OK.

So today again, higher than recently PCR positives, but no increase in LFD positives, the divergence of the two confuses me.

boys3 - do you happen to have the latest case data broken down by age group (for England)?

England’s cases jumped by 12% week on week on the reported basis. This sort of spike might suggest a series of super spreading events happening universally across the country and potentially across age groups (?).

I am wondering if the numbers for yesterday and today have got anything to do with the highly successful launch of the new Bond movie:

www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-58758854

The timing seems to work - the film opened on Thursday (September 30) and took nearly £5million on the first day. It must have been popular…

From Tim Spector today,
“While COVID may be less severe in children, allowing COVID to run rampant among them is a real gamble. With more than 1 in 30 older school-children now infected and as we predicted numbers rising, many will not escape long-term symptoms. These are the highest rates since January 2021. Without vaccination or restrictions in this group, we can only hope that some kind of herd immunity will kick in and cases will drop."