Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

England’s cases jumped by 12% week on week on the reported basis. This sort of spike might suggest a series of super spreading events happening universally across the country and potentially across age groups (?).

Or just kids??

Quite, lonely.

Cases in kids plateaued and started falling towards the end of last week.

A significant swing from -1% to +15% on Monday and +12% on Tuesday either suggests all kids across the country decided to have massive parties last Thursday or something else happened. Something else might relate to reporting issues but it might also indicate a super spreading event/events. My hypothesis is the latter based on experiences so far (Euro 2020, Boardmasters, end of summer festivals, etc).

The only “event” I can think of that seems to fit the superspreading pattern is the release of No Time to Die.

Sorry - +15% on Wednesday and +12% on Thursday… I cannot keep track of the days of the week when I try (and fail!) to multi-task.

The number of children absent form school continues to rise. 20000 last week.

Cases in kids plateaued and started falling towards the end of last week.
Not in my area they haven't. The county council have advised all schools to bring back masks (including primaries if they think it necessary), to stop visitors and no in person assemblies.

Not in my area they haven’t.

Yes, I was talking about the trend for whole of England. Overall cases did plateau but there will always be differences (ups and downs) across boroughs.

Generally local authorities very often act late. They normally ask for extra precautions when cases are already falling and they always (or nearly always) miss early warning signs of an outbreak (e.g. what we saw in Trafford yesterday - as per boys3 tables).

The Bond movie is well titled for release during a pandemic, isn’t it?

Anecdata.
Since last Friday our son is in online school (sick, not covid). Monday about 5% of his peers were absent or online. Today that number is over 20%.
Not statistically insignificant.
Also 2 of his teachers are off.
the -anec- part is that we have no idea if they have broken a bone, isolating or have covid.
Zero information from school. More than infuriating. The fact that we are responsible for our children but are forced to send them to unhealthy environment is, in itself, appalling. But why are they also keeping us in the dark??? How does that help? Or who would it hurt to publish these numbers?

@wintertravel1980

Not in my area they haven’t.

Yes, I was talking about the trend for whole of England. Overall cases did plateau but there will always be differences (ups and downs) across boroughs.

Generally local authorities very often act late. They normally ask for extra precautions when cases are already falling and they always (or nearly always) miss early warning signs of an outbreak (e.g. what we saw in Trafford yesterday - as per boys3 tables).

yes, late action has been a characteristic feature all the way through this

Mr Zahawi is now talking of bringing back masks, apparently.

@TheSunIsStillShining

Anecdata. Since last Friday our son is in online school (sick, not covid). Monday about 5% of his peers were absent or online. Today that number is over 20%. Not statistically insignificant. Also 2 of his teachers are off. the -anec- part is that we have no idea if they have broken a bone, isolating or have covid. Zero information from school. More than infuriating. The fact that we are responsible for our children but are forced to send them to unhealthy environment is, in itself, appalling. But why are they also keeping us in the dark??? How does that help? Or who would it hurt to publish these numbers?

Apparently school has to call in PH and send a letter out when 10% off with covid. Both my dds schools have just done this, as have two others I know about in same area ☹️

Not exactly data related but it's now October, you cant make vitamin D in skin in the uk from now to March so a reminder to consider a supplement. Lots of information on the studies thread about why it may be a good idea. Sadly the uk study looking at whether it is preventive will not report until at least November, probably a lot longer before it is even a pre-print. Vitamin D drops when infected so if you are ill double up your normal supplement.

There seems to be a very high prevalence of a god awful cold and cough. DD has it and is really ill. I've sent off a pcr but she says everyone has it (and many at school with it ), and all testing neg. I've had to stand down a couple of tradesmen as a result and they've both said they've heard of loads of people with the same thing.

Is this just because schools we're out jan- feb so they're playing germ catch up?

I think it may explain why absences so high.

The absence figures of over 200000 are covid related absences only...

Are they. Blimey.

BBC provides the breakdown of the 200,000 number:

www.bbc.com/news/education-58805054

102,000 pupils had a confirmed Covid case. 84,000 had a suspected case/were waiting for test results.

Yes, quite a lot of which translate into real cases. I am not sure if you are trying to minimise or not, but this is higher than at any other point when schools have been open.

@tiddlysquat

There seems to be a very high prevalence of a god awful cold and cough. DD has it and is really ill. I've sent off a pcr but she says everyone has it (and many at school with it ), and all testing neg. I've had to stand down a couple of tradesmen as a result and they've both said they've heard of loads of people with the same thing.

Is this just because schools we're out jan- feb so they're playing germ catch up?

I think it may explain why absences so high.

Yes same as DD’s school. Teachers and kids off, known as the plague.

It'll also be interesting to see what we find if they ever chose to publish occupational stats again . Many schools seem to be struggling with teacher absence.

Ds and his friends are in that 200k

I’m not surprised it’s higher than any other time. I’m actually more surprised it’s taken this long to reach them.

Presumably though there were more than 200k off when the policy was to send home the whole bubble, they just weren’t all off ‘with covid’.

Does anyone know what's happened to Germany's figures today? Positives up 50% on same day last week from 11k - 16k and reported deaths up from 50 to 362. Data catch-up maybe?

Alreadytaken thanks for the timely reminder about Vitamin D

Tiddly, see my and others posts earlier today and yesterday re people having symptoms plus pos LFDs, neg on PCR. Being investigated by the successor to PHE currently as too many happening.

Yes but that is whataboutery. There is still significant disruption and there are , at present, more covid cases in schools. There is no point in looking back.

It was not a 'policy' to send home whole bubbles beyond primary school.

Test and Trace are currently not contact tracing any school contacts at all unless they were in after school clubs. They don't even ask..

Marsha , hope your DS is OK.

Lest anyone is interested in the ventilation issue, only 2% of schools have received CO2 monitors.