Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

5.9million infections in England, only 45,119 possible re-infections, it's inconsequential to the data.

Except if the vast majority of the 45,119 reinfections have been in the last six weeks, it is not so inconsequential.

Of course they're going to be in the last six weeks though because there simply weren't enough tests done in the original wave, so the re-infections have to be from infections over christmas. So this is when you'd see them following the cases this wave as you'd expect.

If I remember rightly it's currently at 0.6 / 100,000 of infections (certainly of that order), this is simply way below the margin of the error in those attack rate calculations to impact them. 355.7 current rate even if there were actually ten times the number of re-infections, it would make the rate 362.

@lonelyplanet

5.9million infections in England, only 45,119 possible re-infections, it's inconsequential to the data.

Except if the vast majority of the 45,119 reinfections have been in the last six weeks, it is not so inconsequential.

Wow! So is this graph saying that most new positives are reinfections?? Have I understood that right..?

Case numbers look like they are down today on last week. Have we possibly turned again? It’s like a yo-yo at the moment!

I guess the question is on re-infection, are the low numbers from christmas because the re-infection risk jumps massively at a year (when the first people from when cases started increasing in october 2020) and we're seeing all the re-infections from that period, and very few from christmas, if that is the case in the data then it would be more worrying as it suggests the christmas wave would soon start to similarly become high risk for re-infection.

Or is it more that there's a much wider spread of re-infection time where by some people do not mount a long term neutralizing defence but others do.

Given the known impact of the vaccine, I think the second is much more likely, but the date of original infection would be helpful data points to discriminate.

Wow! So is this graph saying that most new positives are reinfections?? Have I understood that right..?

No the scales are completely different! (the re-infections are all under 2 per 100k, the cases are up over 500 per 100k Just that re-infection rate is tracking infection rate, I don't think there's any real information in that as we only have people being re-infected from before.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Wow! So is this graph saying that most new positives are reinfections?? Have I understood that right..?

No the scales are completely different! (the re-infections are all under 2 per 100k, the cases are up over 500 per 100k Just that re-infection rate is tracking infection rate, I don't think there's any real information in that as we only have people being re-infected from before.

Oh right! Thank you 😅😅.

So, since I was never tested in the first wave, if when I catch delta at work or via ds being at school, it will be counted as the first time I caught covid and not a reinfection? I guess there's no other way to code it, but it's definitely not a true reflection of reality for many people.

moimichme No indeed, obviously there's possibly 10% of the population who caught covid I the first wave, and certainly all evidence is some of them have caught it again we have no idea how many. What we do know is off the millions known to have caught it before May this year, just 45,000 are possibly re-infections (some could be false positives on one of the situations, some could even be persistent infection beyond 90 days that wasn't identified, some could be mistake in the process, e.g. mixing up samples) Absolutely some will be real.

Unless there's some sort of cliff drop off of immunity from infection, we can likely conclude that the numbers re-infecting from the first wave is not completely different. Evidence for a cliff drop off is what we'd need to worry I think - ie very large percentage of the re-infections coming from from before e.g. Sept 2020.

Evidence for infection immunity is certainly considerably better than vaccine immunity.

The point I was trying to make was that since the middle of August there have been approximately 1.6 million cases reported. The vast majority of the 45,000 reinfections you mentioned, sirfred, also fall in this period and are on top of this number. Some areas, which had high case rates previously, may well have a higher share of these reinfections so their current case rates look lower than they really are. The false positives etc. that you mentioned are irrelevant because they would also be true of cases that aren't reinfections.

@moimichme

So, since I was never tested in the first wave, if when I catch delta at work or via ds being at school, it will be counted as the first time I caught covid and not a reinfection? I guess there's no other way to code it, but it's definitely not a true reflection of reality for many people.

Yes this would be the case. I think all cases should be counted like this whether they are reinfections or not as it gives a much more accurate picture of current case rates. However knowing the number of reinfections is obviously useful too. This will never be accurate though because as you say many of the early cases never got tested.

Evidence for infection immunity is certainly considerably better than vaccine immunity.

This is certainly what the government is hoping for but for you have any data to back this statement up?

10-14 cases look to be levelling off in England.

the this is the weekly distribution over the past four weeks.

Clearly the most recent Friday and of course yesterday in particular not complete.

This is certainly what the government is hoping for but for you have any data to back this statement up?

45,000 re-infections out of more than 3 million identified cases, I struggle to see how that is anything but, whereas the vaccine is less than 50% according to Pfizer (other vaccines seemingly better, but we're going almost all in Pfizer now for some reason)

Some areas, which had high case rates previously, may well have a higher share of these reinfections so their current case rates look lower than they really are

Okay, I get what you're saying - and we don't have the data, but let's put all the cases into London for that last week, it would change the 7 day rate from ~230 to ~280, a reasonable change, but would still leave London as one of the lowest rates. So the completely unrealistic worst case of where those reinfections are doesn't change the pattern really.

Slight drop today - really good news / hopeful!

I hope this is ok to post here - not data but a request for more info!
Has anyone found anything 'official' about the reports of people getting multiple positive LFTs but negative PCR? There are at least 4 different threads about this on MN plus several reports on my local fb page (all anecdotal obviously), it seems to be a growing problem. Lots of these people later test positive on a repeated PCR - but some obviously don't re-test and are advised to go with the negative PCR so carry on as normal (often despite symptoms). If it is a real trend then potentially will impact on data, with reported case figures lower than actual. Good explanation here for why the positive LFT is likely to be correct in this situation (although no explanation for why this might be happening): https://www.instagram.com/p/CUXwS9jopM/?utmmmedium=copylink

It's great having deaths and hospitalisations fall going into autumn and winter, let's hope it continues!

@herecomesthsun

It's great having deaths and hospitalisations fall going into autumn and winter, let's hope it continues!

☺️

Well, okay, maybe that's a fond hope.

@herecomesthsun it's definitely very positive and a much better place than I think we were all expecting!

mobile.twitter.com/pouriaaa?lang=en

Did we notice what happened to numbers of tests on 1 October - apparently fell by about 60%, just for the day??

Phone won’t let me screenshot the dashboard page, but you can look.

Anacdata: there was a delay in getting test kits and results last week compared to previous attempts at postal PCR. There were a couple of threads on waiting times too. It would be interesting to see if this was just unlucky or there was a delay in testing.

Things looking good, touch wood!!

not data, but don't want to start a thread....
Anyone else experiencing that they can't register their pcr kits online for NHS tests?

@JanglyBeads

mobile.twitter.com/pouriaaa?lang=en

Did we notice what happened to numbers of tests on 1 October - apparently fell by about 60%, just for the day??

Phone won’t let me screenshot the dashboard page, but you can look.

It’s an odd one. Total tests in pillar 2 for England show as 158,186 for 1st Oct; but Lateral flows for the same day are 468,191 for England.