'No reason to think Covid will become more virulent’/'It could be like common cold by Spring'

[GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr]

Some positive news from people who know what they're talking about this morning.

As far as the common cold claim is concerned, there was the caveat that we have to get through winter first (wouldn't fit on my screenshot but that's all that it said, no predictions of catastrophe or anything).

Yes I know there are still vulnerable people whom covid could affect badly (I'm one of them), but this is good news. Although I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me it's not

@GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr

the pandemic will be over in its own time

No it won't, because there are vaccines and therapies and in the past there have been restrictions, all of which will ultimately hasten its end. It would have to be left to its own devices to be 'over in its own time'. Human response alters its course and while, of course, we can't completely control it, we can influence the way it pans out and the length of time it takes to do so.

Actually, letting it run rampant without the restrictions probably would have hastened its end - but at a big cost of life/collapsing healthcare. We’ve saved lives but probably prolonged it.

Surely it’s less disruptive for teachers to be off now than later in the year during exam season?

Surely it's pupils who should be the focus of most of our concern over exam season. Clearly any disruption is bad... but on the basis we can't eliminate Covid (and it seems some believe that some masks and far-reaching isolation rules will somehow get Covid under control and stop it from
affecting schools!) surely it's better now than later in the year.

[quote bumbleymummy]@herecomesthsun why? If they’ve had the virus now then they’re not going to be sick again later in the year.[/quote]
that supposes they will be well enough to come back to school doesn't it?

as I say, I don't know the personal details, but the school is doing a major re-organisation in some areas based on reduced staffing for this academic year, apparently health / covid related

and yes, we have quite a lot of cases right now

I would go with Chris Whitty on vaccination rather than infection and that this as a plan will helo keep things more stable over exam time.

Until those kids who want to can get vaccinated, some measures to keep infection numbers down might be a good idea.

Oh and people in this thread seem to want kids positive for covid in school

Keeping infectious people at home is not a far-reaching isolation rule, it is common sense

Actually, letting it run rampant without the restrictions probably would have hastened its end - but at a big cost of life/collapsing healthcare. We’ve saved lives but probably prolonged it.

I was in favour of restrictions prior to the vaccine rollout... Now that's happened, the best (or least worst) thing we can now do is "let it rip" in the weeks ahead, and stop fooling ourselves that we can prevent most pupils from getting Covid by "measures".

I've been criticised heavily for this view on here, and even had a thread taken down arguing this as it caused so much outrage, but I stand by it.

@herecomesthsun

Oh and people in this thread seem to want kids positive for covid in school

Keeping infectious people at home is not a far-reaching isolation rule, it is common sense

I was referring to the view that whole households should isolate for ten days for one case.

@GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr

the pandemic will be over in its own time

No it won't, because there are vaccines and therapies and in the past there have been restrictions, all of which will ultimately hasten its end. It would have to be left to its own devices to be 'over in its own time'. Human response alters its course and while, of course, we can't completely control it, we can influence the way it pans out and the length of time it takes to do so.

No

of course vaccines are a good thing

but whether this will all be over by spring?

lot's hope so

but there are a number of variables at play

so tempering optimism with caution is a bit wiser, Whitty-stylee

I’ll relax once the Vaccine for VotingTory comes out.

@MossyBottom

It is reassuring. Does less virulent mean less transmissible or less severe?

Quite possibly both.

But as long as it's less severe we can live with it being transmissable.

Actually, letting it run rampant without the restrictions probably would have hastened its end - but at a big cost of life/collapsing healthcare. We’ve saved lives but probably prolonged it.

A quick Google shows that Spanish Flu was over in 2 years, with 3 waves and they didn't have vaccines or an NHS, so this is probably true.

@herecomesthsun were they not vaccinated?

Ignore nanny’s doom mongering, she’s just desperate to cling to her excuse not to leave the house for whatever reason.

Ignore Aposter's inability to actually read and comprehend posts. She's just desperate to perpetuate the myth that people long for lockdowns no matter what.

I do not have access to medical details of staff

(but i bet they all are)

@herecomesthsun

I would go with Chris Whitty on vaccination rather than infection and that this as a plan will helo keep things more stable over exam time.

Until those kids who want to can get vaccinated, some measures to keep infection numbers down might be a good idea.

Most children have already ‘gone with infection’ though. Even more will have by the time children are offered the vaccine and it actually kicks in… and of course we also have to consider that a single dose isn’t really that good at preventing infection so they’re probably going to catch it anyway… it all seems a bit pointless tbh.

Ignore Aposter's inability to actually read and comprehend posts. She's just desperate to perpetuate the myth that people long for lockdowns no matter what.

In Nanny’s case it’s true though. Isn’t she in voluntary lockdown right now and planning the Zoom Christmas?

no Whitty said yesterday about 50% kids have had covid

To be fair Chris whitty said there was no need to wear masks at the start and didn’t advise an earlier lockdown last March. Ultimately all the experts have been wrong sometimes in the pandemic but that doesn’t negate their expertise completely not in an evolving situation. I think bell is optimistic yes but he does have more of an understanding of disease than a lot of posters on here!

I think it is more that it "could well" be over by Spring - but really, as you say it's an evolving situation

@NannyAndJohn

He said we had little to worry about last winter. He twists the science to sound optimistic. That wouldn't bother me if what he says has a history of coming to fruition. But it doesn't. And so I don't take what he says seriously.

I prefer to listen to people who get things right.

In the same way that you twist the numbers to spread doom and gloom? In the same way that what you've said doesn't come to fruition?

I think the problem with focusing on deaths is that is only a part of the picture

I agree, which is what it was only one of the things I mentioned.

@Warhertisuff

Actually, letting it run rampant without the restrictions probably would have hastened its end - but at a big cost of life/collapsing healthcare. We’ve saved lives but probably prolonged it.

I was in favour of restrictions prior to the vaccine rollout... Now that's happened, the best (or least worst) thing we can now do is "let it rip" in the weeks ahead, and stop fooling ourselves that we can prevent most pupils from getting Covid by "measures".

I've been criticised heavily for this view on here, and even had a thread taken down arguing this as it caused so much outrage, but I stand by it.

I completely agree. I want to end isolation for covid positive people too. Just stay home when you are actually sick back when you are well like any other illness.

@GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr

No, I just prefer to listen to

Those who correctly warned us about a big wave last winter.

Those who sounded the alarm about Delta while everyone else had their heads in the sand.

Those that correctly projected a third wave in the summer

And what about those who tell us that tens of thousands of lives have been saved by vaccines? Or the data which shows that deaths remain low, even throughout periods when there were 40,000 cases a day and the lag that followed? Or that vaccines reduce transmission and protect against up to 96% of hospitalisations? Or that new therapies mean that those who become very ill are more likely to recover? Or that cases remained steady even after everything opened up and there was no dramatic spike in cases as was feared?

All things which have proved to be true in recent months.

Well the people I listen to have been saying these things as well.

Because they report all sides of the story instead of just cherry picking the few positive bits.

but whether this will all be over by spring?

Nothing in the screenshots says it'll be over by spring. The possibility of things being fine or that covid will be more akin to the common cold isn't the same as it all being over. Just that things have moved on, and for the better. And hopefully will continue to do so until it really is all over.

Oh this is really cheering, thanks OP. I'm in no way a doom monger but I'm not feeling well today (dizzy, burning throat/chest, loss of appetite) and having had covid quite badly a year ago and only having had one jab in March, I was getting a bit tense worrying that I'd caught it again.

But this makes me feel more confident that even if I have, I do have some immunity and therefore it is unlikely that I'll be as poorly as I was first time around.

Which presumably gives similar hope to the UK population that things will slowly improve, even if it's not over quite yet.

I don't know if I've left the 2nd jab too late, I'll look it up.