'No reason to think Covid will become more virulent’/'It could be like common cold by Spring'

[GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr]

Some positive news from people who know what they're talking about this morning.

As far as the common cold claim is concerned, there was the caveat that we have to get through winter first (wouldn't fit on my screenshot but that's all that it said, no predictions of catastrophe or anything).

Yes I know there are still vulnerable people whom covid could affect badly (I'm one of them), but this is good news. Although I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me it's not

Seems likely it will end up like a common cold in time, based on how other new respiratory viruses have behaved over human history. And it’s not like common colds are always harmless, they can be nasty in vulnerable populations, but we coexist with them anyway.

There’s this tendency to think that because the pandemic is new to us, it must be this totally new world-changing phenomenon that humanity has never experienced before that will utterly change the way we live forever. But there’s nothing new under the sun - including endemic human coronaviruses.

John Bell predicted last winter that life would be back to normal by Spring 2021.

I really hope he’s right this time.

@Angrymum22

Virulent refers to how easily a pathogen (virus/bacteria) causes disease/infection. At the moment Covid is very virulent so rapidly induces disease. Most respiratory infections are like this. Low virulence is when the pathogen takes a long time induce the disease. A good example is tuberculosis, you can be infected with the tb bacterium for many years but it sort of remains dormant because it is not powerful enough to get past the immune system and cause full blown tb. It does live for many years waiting for the opportunity to infect when the immune system is compromised. Currently TB is probably more likely to kill you than Covid if it fully infects you because it is so resistant to current antibiotics. However you are far more likely to develop full blown Covid if you are infected.

It's not about the time it takes to induce disease, although that could be true eg more virulent strains of HIV will progress to AIDS without treatment faster than less virulent strains. Virulence refers to how easily a pathogen causes disease/harm to the host ie the severity, @MossyBottom.

Aw, let’s not be too mean to old Nanny. It’s looking like her career as a professional covid troll / harbinger of doom is almost over. What will she do with herself then?!

@MossyBottom

It is reassuring. Does less virulent mean less transmissible or less severe?

Less severe.

Encouraging news.

I also think we are already there regarding colds, with so many having them with the same symptoms as covid, but not testing positive

On this above, surely those colds aren’t Covid 19 as they would test positive? I thought SG is just saying eventually a CoVid 19 infection will not produce symptoms worse than a cold?

@SaveWaterDrinkGin

Aw, let’s not be too mean to old Nanny. It’s looking like her career as a professional covid troll / harbinger of doom is almost over. What will she do with herself then?!

More to the point what will poor old John do when Nanny hasn't got a pandemic to keep her occupied?

@GoldenOmber

Seems likely it will end up like a common cold in time, based on how other new respiratory viruses have behaved over human history. And it’s not like common colds are always harmless, they can be nasty in vulnerable populations, but we coexist with them anyway.

There’s this tendency to think that because the pandemic is new to us, it must be this totally new world-changing phenomenon that humanity has never experienced before that will utterly change the way we live forever. But there’s nothing new under the sun - including endemic human coronaviruses.

Thank you for this calm, measured post.

I'm in bed with Covid currently (caught off DS1) and it's helping to give me some perspective!

I thought SG is just saying eventually a CoVid 19 infection will not produce symptoms worse than a cold?

Yes but I think the PP’s point is that lots of covid infections are there already

I read this in the independent. She did also say she couldn’t say how long it would take to get there or what measures would be needed in the meantime. Don’t know how to link, but I don’t think it’s all over yet, and this winter might see more measures.

@QueenofKattegat

Also in the news that cases, overall, are down 22% in a week.

The news said they were up by a third today compared with the same day last week.

Would be lovely if they were dropping but I’ve read so many posts re cases in schools the increase would seem more likely.

@Brindle88

I read this in the independent. She did also say she couldn’t say how long it would take to get there or what measures would be needed in the meantime. Don’t know how to link, but I don’t think it’s all over yet, and this winter might see more measures.

I think we're all prepared for some measures over winter (although hoping of course it won't come to that). It'd be naive to think otherwise. John Bell said that we have to get through winter first, too.

I've just read another piece on the BBC (I do read other news outlets honest ) saying that there's evidence that subsequent covid infections are usually milder than the first one, and also do the job of 'topping up' immunity. That's encouraging, too. By the end of winter there should be a good level of protection not only from vaccines but also past infections, which bodes well going forward. Unfortunately to get there people will catch covid, which is a major downside. Thank goodness for vaccines, which will continue to prevent most cases of serious illness.

I don’t get why we need restrictions this winter if we have vaccines? What’s going to make this winter any different from next winter? Or the winter after that? Etc.

Hello @NannyAndJohn

I have found the definition of habit for you -

"a settled or regular tendency or practice, especially one that is hard to give up"

I don't think doing something once falls into that.

I also reeaaallly don't think you need to worry about people wanting to see you at Christmas.

I don't think doing something once falls into that

Or even not doing something at all, given we weren't in lockdown last Christmas!

@GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr very true. Doesn't fit dear old Nanny's narrative though and she doesn't like to let the truth get in the way of a good story.

In other (good) news cases and % in Scotland drooping steadily now after our back to school peak (we went back mid August)

a) I would bet anything that Nanny is a man

b) Nanny is a political poster: they think covid is worth it for governmental - and even societal - collapse. Their posts invariably end with an assertion that it’s all Boris’s/the UK’s fault. That’s not to say that mistakes weren’t made, but Nanny seeks to spread the message that covid is a peculiarly British problem which would all go away if we went and found Jeremy Corbyn to lead us….

Their posts invariably end with an assertion that it’s all Boris’s/the UK’s fault

And always ignoring the fact that each home nation sets their own rules...

Covid might be unlikely to mutate to be more deadly or to completely escape the vaccine but it doesn't have to be that extreme to cause real problems. The Delta variant caused a lot of issues by being more transmissible and the vaccine being only slightly less effective still had a huge impact. Sorry.

😆 haven't had a "sorry" post for a while!

NannyAndJohn
“Pretty sure I saw the exact same article this time last year.”

No, you really didn’t.

This was always going to happen at some point or another, it’s what viruses do.

You’re seriously getting on my wick now, you miserable sod.

@TheKeatingFive

I thought SG is just saying eventually a CoVid 19 infection will not produce symptoms worse than a cold?

Yes but I think the PP’s point is that lots of covid infections are there already

But how can they be CoVid 19 infections if they are testing negative to CoVid 19? When you say covid infections, do you mean other coronaviruses that cause the common cold? Thanks.

@Bizawit

I don’t get why we need restrictions this winter if we have vaccines? What’s going to make this winter any different from next winter? Or the winter after that? Etc.

We really don't have many restrictions right now.

Chris Whitty is reported here describing the conditions that might trigger mandated restrictions.

uk.news.yahoo.com/three-things-covid-restrictions-whitty-163000548.html