'No reason to think Covid will become more virulent’/'It could be like common cold by Spring'

[GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr]

Some positive news from people who know what they're talking about this morning.

As far as the common cold claim is concerned, there was the caveat that we have to get through winter first (wouldn't fit on my screenshot but that's all that it said, no predictions of catastrophe or anything).

Yes I know there are still vulnerable people whom covid could affect badly (I'm one of them), but this is good news. Although I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me it's not

This has given me a lot of hope. I'm 31, double vaccinated and have just been discharged from hospital with covid pneumonia. I caught it from my son - 25 out of 31 kids in a class had it, all affected class teachers caught it though hopefully mildly. I have been traumatised by the last 10 days - and I though shielding was bad! Any good news is what I need.

@TickyTacky

This has given me a lot of hope. I'm 31, double vaccinated and have just been discharged from hospital with covid pneumonia. I caught it from my son - 25 out of 31 kids in a class had it, all affected class teachers caught it though hopefully mildly. I have been traumatised by the last 10 days - and I though shielding was bad! Any good news is what I need.

I'm sorry you've been so ill and been so traumatised How are you feeling now? Hope you're back to rude health asap.

Yep, positive news is a real tonic isn't it. I'm on my way back from a hospital appointment where I was put on immunosuppressant drugs for my RA which means that in future, vaccines won't work so well for me and the whole covid thing will be much riskier. I'm very happy to cling onto positive news from experts right now!

The time that I corrected N&J's maths,@TheKeatingFive, it was clear that she had forgotten about about significant figures/decimal places from school and was using an equation that is so oversimplified and didn't include important factors that her calculations were meaningless. On the other hand, the gist of her argument was correct and if she had done the calculations correctly, she could have proved her point, so I doubt she was cherry picking.

There was some definite cherry picking going on with the original "100k cases on 21 June" prediction. She took case figures from two single days, one from a Bank Holiday weekend and the other a midweek figure 4 days later. No attempt to use averaged figures (had she done so, her projected figure would have been around 13k cases on 21 June) or even use the same day of the week when comparing single day figures.

(And this was long before Sajid Javid or Neil Ferguson started talking about 100k cases, so she wasn't using their figures to make her point.)

I think that's the only time I've replied to her, but I felt it was disingenuous of her to blame "noisy data" when she'd made no attempt to allow for daily data fluctuations, which I found surprising for someone who says she has a maths degree. She's never acknowledged that her methodology was deeply flawed in that calculation which probably made a lot of people very anxious, although I notice she has started using averages now!

I'm not RTFT because it's clearly a bunfight - as always when it comes to COVID.

What always irritates me is that two things can simultaneously be true, we're not in a binary position. It is perfectly possible to have legitimate concerns about long COVID while also being optimistic that we may have turned a corner.

We haven't really gone back out and done things yet. We're still wearing masks in shops. I have vulnerable DC and a very vulnerable DM and we're in the unusual situation of finding lockdown conditions quite calming and peaceful (autistic household!). With numbers still at over 30k new cases a day roughly, we are all happy to carry on just being cautious til after the winter. We're not expecting some kind of zero COVID world, but would prefer to wait until it's all just a bit better than things are now.

So I'm someone that many people on MN would scoff at. I'm fine with that. Nevertheless, I have been feely quietly hopeful that we are all over the worst of this. Respected scientists all seem to agree that COVID is starting to burn itself out and the science seems to stack up (my DB is a scientist and he agrees too).

People had such a rotten time during lockdown that many will refuse to acknowledge anything but absolute positivity and will be downright rude to those who suggest there are still concerns. On the flip side, there are those who are so anxious about COVID/the risk of Long COVID that without absolute assurances, they're not willing to resume their former activities and point the finger at those who do. Both sides have some valid points, but both sides are also not always reasonable in their assessment of others.

Continue taking the precautions that feel right for your circumstances. But ask yourself what you want to see before you feel able to resume activities. On the flip side, ask yourself what the red flags would be that might give you cause for concern.

I'm cautious but I really do believe that we are inching towards a resolution. That won't be great at first as we've got a huge mess to clear up but at least it's progress.

We're all going to emerge from this changed in some way or another, but it does feel as if the end of the tunnel may just be glimmering into sight.

Who are those posters then Thekeating ? Keeping notes are you ? Sorry but if anyone is overinvested it's you.

@CornishYarg abso!utely agree with you. Great post.

Who are those posters then Thekeating ? Keeping notes are you ? Sorry but if anyone is overinvested it's you.

Sheesh, the vitriol from you is getting a bit much, cool the jets.

I’m not going to wade into needless shit stirring, but I’m not talking about you if that’s what you’re worried about,

My favourite analogy of COVID was actually made by Ken Jeong on the late late show with James Corden. He’s actually a trained doctor among other things. Look it up…it’s brilliant

There was some definite cherry picking going on with the original "100k cases on 21 June" prediction. She took case figures from two single days, one from a Bank Holiday weekend and the other a midweek figure 4 days later. No attempt to use averaged figures (had she done so, her projected figure would have been around 13k cases on 21 June) or even use the same day of the week when comparing single day figures.

Yeah that’s what I thought, but you certainly have a much better grasp of the detail.

Where has @NannyAndJohn said anything on this thread that is a lie or misinformation? If she has done that on other threads, that is no excuse to bully her on this thread.

All I see on this thread is posters being pedantic and deliberately misunderstanding her posts to bully her, and insulting her personally eg everyone knew exactly what she meant by "lockdown" at Christmas. Much of the country was under tier 4 restrictions, the Christmas relaxation of the rules was cancelled, more places went into tier 4 restrictions on Boxing Day and full national lockdown came into force less than 2 weeks later. There were extreme restrictions in place. It's hardly a lie or misinformation.

If posters don't want people to talk about her, they shouldn't have started making accusations and piling on, @GoldFrankensteinAndGrrr. You have derailed your own thread.

Where has @NannyAndJohn said anything on this thread that is a lie or misinformation?

She said that she saw the same article this time last year.

The ‘exact same article’ is what she said

So anything said against Nanny is wrong @chesirecat99 but she's allowed to insult other people? I find it pretty insulting to be told I live in squalor thank you very much but presumably that's ok.

@SpidersAreShitheads why would anyone scoff at you? You're doing what's best for your family but you're not insisting everyone else should be doing the same as you. You're right about this changing us all, some have changed for the better and I'm sure plenty have changed for the worse unfortunately. Fingers crossed you're right about that glimmer of light 💐

The ‘exact same article’ is what she said

That's my point, @TheKeatingFive. You are being pedantic.

It's ridiculous to think that N&J really meant the "exact same article", it wouldn't be news if it were... No one in their right mind would believe that was what she meant. Prof Sir John Bell predicted in November "with some confidence" (his words) that life could be back to normal by Spring 2021. That's pretty much the same.

GoldenOmber

Wait, blowing our birthday candles is bad now? What are other people doing with birthday candles? Make a wish and then throw a bucket of water over the cake?“

Now you’re just being silly.

You sanitise it, obviously. Dettox (budget options are available).

You make icing using Milton and icing sugar surely?

Where does she say anything about you living in squalor or insult anyone on this thread, @PinkSparklyPussyCat?

I would be just as quick to criticise her if I saw a post from her insulting you or anyone else.

If she did, two wrongs don't make a right... It's not helpful to continue personal bunfights between threads.

You are being pedantic.

No it’s not pedantic. It’s typical of how Nanny operates.

Of course she knows she didn’t read this article last year. But she came on here, a good news thread, where people were getting hope and comfort, to pour as much cold water as she could by misrepresenting the truth.

By saying she read the same article last year, she’s dismissing it and undermining it. Whereas actually, it’s a positive reading of the situation from a scientist even she should have some respect for.

Yes you were right @Bordois - but I see it is still going! Not sure this can all be blamed on me.

chesirecat99

Where does she say anything about you living in squalor or insult anyone on this thread, @PinkSparklyPussyCat?

I would be just as quick to criticise her if I saw a post from her insulting you or anyone else.

If she did, two wrongs don't make a right... It's not helpful to continue personal bunfights between threads.”

Wasn’t on this thread but a previous one. I read it too.
Really stupid thing to say.

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

It's not nice to go on the positivity threads and call them the head in the sand threads or similar.

It's not nice to say that those of us without space to work from home are living in squalor.

It's not nice to care so little about people that you think anyone can work from home as long as they have a laptop - sod their welfare eh?!

It's not nice to dismiss people struggling through lack of contact and support and think that Zoom is enough for everyone.

Basically this particular poster is not nice. The reason I bite is because I'd hate someone who is in a really bad place to see the posts and no one challenging them.

It's "not nice" to suggest that a lockdown should be implemented that means only "key workers" should be allowed to leave their homes and that these people should be made to live apart from their friends and families for 12 months and then say "it would be a hard 12 months but worth it". That's what this political bot said.

If you advance search the poster in question you will see they did make remarks about living in squalor in flats.